The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1154 ET - Soybean futures, along with soyoil futures, are higher after news of a new EPA proposal. Bloomberg reported that the EPA is planning to require oil refineries to blend 100% of the volumes of renewable fuel that smaller refineries have been exempted from. The SRE program has been controversial, with small refineries located in states like Texas and Wyoming saying that they will be economically disadvantaged if forced to blend renewable fuels. In 2025, the EPA granted RINs covering 1.76 billion gallons of fuel for 29 small refineries. This new rule would force larger refineries to blend that exempted volume instead, supporting demand for agricultural feedstock. Soybean oil up 1.4% on the report, says Charlie Sernatinger of Marex, while underlying soybean futures climb 0.5%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1138 ET - Citi Research favors the risk-reward profile for gold as it trades in the low $4,000 range, with the market showing interest in buying dips while upside participation remains muted. Citi expects the Strait of Hormuz to reopen and de-escalation in the Saudi-Houthi conflict by year-end, "which will see substantial upside potential in gold as lower oil prices and a less hawkish Fed drive up investment demand," Kenny Hu says in a note. "Under this Middle East assumption we stick to our 0-3 month point-price target of $4,800/oz." Even if oil prices get stuck around current levels, "we still see limited downside risk with solid dip-buying interest around $4K," he adds. Gold for December delivery is off 0.1% in New York at $4,185.10 a troy ounce. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1131 ET - Alternative routes being taken for Black Sea grain exports to get to customers in the wake of attacks hitting major ports on the Sea of Azov and elsewhere are at risk for disruption, says analysts with Goldman Sachs in a note. "Recent attacks on commercial vessels near Romania and Bulgaria suggest that the conflict may increasingly affect the southern Black Sea corridor through which many rerouted exports now move," the analysts say. The firm adds that continued disruptions may pressure how much wheat farmers can plant for next season. Exports for both Russia and Ukraine have been disturbed by military strikes hitting main ports. CBOT wheat rises 0.8%, and corn is up 0.6%. Soybeans rise 0.6%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1021 ET - U.S. diesel futures are higher with the tax break for on-road use of dyed diesel and lifting of U.S. sanctions on Russian diesel doing little to bring down prices. Trucking companies generally don't have access to dyed diesel, and even if they do they choose not to use it because of the burden of record-keeping in case it's just a deferred tax, says Matt Muenster of transportation technology firm Breakthrough. "Dyed diesel and allowing Russian diesel into the U.S. in near term seems like it would have pretty limited impact." Additional Russian barrels in the international market would be helpful, "but overall it's still a very tight international market," he adds. Nymex diesel futures are up 2.1% at $4.8239 a gallon. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1020 ET - Lean hog futures on the CME are down 0.7% in early trading, with the contract unable to maintain consistent demand to support prices. "Cash-market fundamentals remain weak," says Joe Davis of Futures International in a note. If lean hogs settle lower, then it would be the fifth lower session out of the past six for hogs. Live cattle futures are up 0.2%, supported by better boxed beef prices. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1011 ET - The U.S. dollar eases as pressure fades across global bond markets and Treasury yields recede, Infinox's Thadeu Dos Santos says in a note. Crude oil prices softened on expectations that more Russian diesel exports are coming, easing inflation concerns, though the ongoing conflict in the Middle East is capping both the downside on oil prices and the decline in borrowing costs, Dos Santos says. Wednesday's CPI report will probably guide the dollar's next move, he says. An increase in the core measure would break a series of recent declines and reinforce concerns that underlying inflation is still elevated, Dos Santos says. (dean.seal@wsj.com)
0957 ET - USDA estimates from last week's WASDE report continue to be under the microscope by some traders, who contend that the changes made in certain areas don't add up. "The weekly crop condition ratings declined, yet the yield estimates increased," says Michael Cordonnier of Soybean and Corn Advisor Inc. regarding corn forecasts. "It does not seem possible that two things can both be correct." Cordonnier now forecasts U.S. corn yield at 180 bushels an acre, which would be down from the 181.2 bpa forecast in this month's WASDE report published last Friday. For soybeans, Cordonnier says that the USDA's estimate of 53.1 bpa "seems more reasonable" than its corn figure. CBOT corn is up 0.3%, while soybeans fall 0.3%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
0929 ET - This afternoon's weekly Crop Progress report, delayed from yesterday due to the Columbus Day/Indigenous Peoples' Day holidays, may have big changes from the prior week, says Matt Zeller of StoneX in a note. He believes the data will "show major catch-up on both fall harvest and winter wheat planting." Weather last week was seen turning drier for many areas, allowing farmers who haven't been able to get into fields an opportunity to do so. Hurricane Isaias also didn't cause as much damage as some feared when it made landfall over the weekend. CBOT corn futures are flat, while soybeans fall 0.2% and wheat is off 0.2%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
0916 ET - Oil futures are lower in early U.S. trading after rising the previous three sessions. Scott Shelton of TP ICAP says in a note that the market appears to be retracing and that some of the "explosiveness" in freight costs has waned. "I still think more than 50% of this recent rally was a 'freight adjustment' and that is running out of steam." Shelton is skeptical about a Ukraine-Russia energy ceasefire and the diesel deal announced by President Trump, which "could generate some strength if they fail." WTI is down 1.3% at $92.55 a barrel and Brent is off 1.6% at $104.90 a barrel. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0910 ET - The lack of new U.S. soybean flash sales to Chinese buyers is being noticed by grain traders, says AgResource in a note. "China has been largely absent from U.S. soybean purchases since its Golden Week holiday ended late last week," says the firm. "The bulls need China to return to U.S. soybeans, with an estimated 10 million metric tons still to be secured before December 31st if China adheres to last November's Busan Agreement." The firm estimates that China has purchased roughly 15 million tons of soybeans since the agreement, which isn't enough to satisfy the terms of last year's deal. So grain traders are on watch to see if there's any signs of China returning to its purchasing ways. CBOT soybeans fall 0.2% premarket. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
0857 ET - U.S. natural gas futures are little changed with production recovering and milder late October weather forecasts limiting the heating demand outlook. "Recovering post-Isaias Gulf of America production supports higher national readings," Eli Rubin of EBW Analytics says in a note. "Aside from the brief cold front into this weekend, mild late-October weather forecasts support moderating gas prices." Nymex natural gas is off 0.1% at $3.164/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0625 ET - Palm oil futures closed higher, erasing earlier losses. Prices were supported by firmer soybean oil prices alongside stronger October export demand, despite concerns over elevated domestic inventories, says David Ng, a trader at Kuala Lumpur-based Iceberg X. Ng sees prices supported around 4,600 ringgit a ton and facing resistance at 4,800 ringgit a ton. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for December delivery rose 45 ringgit to 4,682 ringgit a ton.
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