Oscar Health's Q3 Upside Less Certain as Guidance Reflects Positive Trends, UBS Says

MT Newswires Live10-13 02:55

Oscar Health (OSCR) may not deliver outsized upside when it reports Q3 results, as its updated guidance already captures positive utilization trends, UBS Securities said in a Monday note.

The company is scheduled to report Q3 results Nov. 5.

The brokerage said the trends mirror commentary from peer managed care companies pointing to better-than-expected performance. It raised its 2026-2028 earnings-per-share estimates to $2.00, $2.30 and $2.80, respectively, while noting that conservative risk adjustment assumptions could still yield some upside as the year progresses.

UBS said additional program integrity checks on a large group of members could weigh on revenue and eat into potential upside if disenrollment is high, though the company indicated this could be absorbed within its outlook. The brokerage said it remains unclear how much of the potential impact is reflected in guidance.

The investment firm said CMS disenrollments affecting 315,000 enrollments covering 760,000 people were reflected in the company's outlook, which included 250,000 to 300,000 potentially disenrolled members.

UBS maintained its neutral rating on the stock and raised its price target to $36 from $26.

Price: 33.54, Change: +0.16, Percent Change: +0.49

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