The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1208 ET - Canadian railroads will need to find a new growth driver to replace grain, posing a particular challenge to Canadian National Railway, Raymond James analysts write in a note, downgrading the stock to market perform. "Grain-the dominant growth engine for both carriers through 2026-should remain healthy in absolute terms, but fade rapidly in terms of outsized growth contribution, increasing the importance of replacement growth surfacing elsewhere," the analysts write. While Canadian Pacific Kansas City has solid growth prospects outside of grain, CN Rail has "fewer obvious replacement growth drivers," they write. "The handoff therefore appears more challenging at CN." Shares fall 1.9% to $119.45. (elias.schisgall@wsj.com)
1141 ET - Friday's Commitment of Traders report from the CFTC showed a decrease in long positions held by fund traders in corn and soybean futures. In corn, fund traders cut long positions in corn by nearly 63,000 contracts for the week ended Oct. 13. In soybeans, long positions were reduced by over 6,200 contracts. Long positions in wheat futures were decreased by roughly 9,000 to 10,000 contracts for wheat, according to the report. The reduction in long positions in corn was the largest decrease seen in the week's report, says Ole Hansen of Saxo Bank in a note. "The bulk of the selling was once again concentrated in grains," Hansen says. CBOT corn is down 1.1%, while soybeans fall 0.6% and wheat slides 0.6%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1107 ET - U.S. natural gas futures give up early gains and move lower, adding to Friday's losses. "While tightening storage comparisons and stronger export demand provide underlying support, inventories remain relatively comfortable heading into winter," Andy Huenefeld of Pinebrook Energy Advisors says in a note. Near-term weather forecasts suggest below-normal heating needs, he adds. "A meaningful shift in the weather outlook may be necessary to establish a more durable rally." Nymex natural gas is off 1.2% at $3.078/mmBtu.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1036 ET - Live cattle futures are down in early trading, inching lower as beef prices slide. The futures contract continues to take its cues from the USDA's boxed beef prices, says AgResource in a note. "Boxed beef was slightly lower last week, with choice down $1.04 [per hundredweight] and select down $1.25 [per hundredweight]," says AgResource in its note. In an interview with CNBC, NEC director Kevin Hassett says that beef prices were shown as dropping for the fourth month in a row in the last CPI report from the Labor Department. Live cattle futures slip 0.2%, while lean hog futures rise 0.1%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
0954 ET - The USDA has announced new flash sales of grain exports to start the week. In its latest notice, the USDA says that 114,000 metric tons of soybeans were sold for delivery to China in the 2026/27 marketing year. An additional 261,000 tons of soybeans were listed as sold to unknown destinations for 2026/27 delivery. 'Unknown destinations' is often another moniker for sales to China, although not necessarily the case. The notice continues a streak of sales announcements to China that began last week. Early in trading, CBOT soybean futures slide 0.3%, while corn is down 0.4% and wheat falls 0.1%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
0953 ET - Oil futures are lower after President Trump waived new sanctions against Russia in a bid to improve energy supply. Conflict in the Middle East will likely contain the decline, Exness senior market strategist Christopher Tahir says in a note. "Tensions between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis remain elevated, while traffic through the Strait of Hormuz continues to face restrictions amid security incidents," he says. "Further disruption to Russian export infrastructure or an escalation in the Middle East could offset the expected policy relief and restore upward pressure." Brent is down 2% at $107.69 a barrel and most-active WTI is down 1.8% at $97.25 a barrel. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0912 ET - U.S. natural gas futures start the week higher, continuing their recent pattern of alternating gains and losses from one day to the next. "Domestic demand is falling into seasonal norms with overnight heating demands in the Northeast in the high teens, while power and industrial sector consumption remains relatively strong on a combination of electrification demands and lingering heat in some areas," Gary Cunningham of Tradition Energy says in a note. Steady supply is met with strong LNG feedgas flows and pipeline exports to Mexico, which together take up about 25% of supply, he adds. Nymex natural gas is up 1.4% at $3.158/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0912 ET--Americas Gold & Silver's 3Q production in at its Idaho mine Galena was below forecasts as the company continues to focus on debottlenecking activities and waste development for the ongoing ramp up, says TD Cowen's Wayne Lam. "Q3 output was below consensus on continued ramp up at Galena, offset by stronger production from Cosala driven by higher grades from the heart of the EC120 Zone," Lam says. The analyst says this ramp-up at Galena will continue to be an ongoing theme. "FY guidance was reiterated and we continue to view focus on ramp up execution ahead," Lam adds. (adriano.marchese@wsj.com)
0616 ET - Palm oil prices closed lower, weighed by softer crude oil prices and concerns over elevated Malaysian inventories, despite support from firmer Dalian vegetable oils and expectations for stronger Indian demand ahead of Diwali, says David Ng, a trader at Kuala Lumpur-based Iceberg X. Looking ahead, improving export demand could help cushion further downside, although high domestic stocks might continue to limit any meaningful recovery, he adds. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for December delivery fell 3 ringgit to 4,766 ringgit a ton.(jiahui.huang@wsj.com; @ivy_jiahuihuang)
0351 ET - Gold prices rise in early European trading, supported by falling oil prices and as traders assess the U.S. interest-rate outlook for this year. "The market remains caught in a tug of war between short-term selling pressure from macro-focused traders and demand from less interest-rate-sensitive investors seeking a safe haven amid multiple geopolitical and fiscal tensions," analysts at Saxo Bank say. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders see only a 15% chance of a rate hike this month, while for December they see a nearly 89% probability. New York gold futures are up 0.5% to $4,203.30 a troy ounce. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0133 ET - Southeast Asian plantation sector prospects are likely to remain subdued in the absence of near-term catalysts for crude palm oil prices amid concerns over transboundary haze, says Maybank analyst Ong Chee Ting in a note. Malaysian planters could be preferred amid a lack of details about Indonesia's new agrarian reform law, but elevated palm oil inventories in Malaysia may limit price gains, he says. Also, while El Nino could reduce output in 2027, its impact may be offset by higher operating costs and taxes, especially for Indonesian producers, he reckons. Maybank maintains a neutral rating on the Southeast Asian plantation sector, and pegs SD Guthrie, Sarawak Oil Palms and Genting Plantations as top buys. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
2306 ET - Palm oil rises amid cautiously bullish sentiment, says AmInvestment Bank in a note. Technical indicators suggest CPO futures retain an upward bias, but elevated Malaysian palm oil inventories and mixed trends in competing vegetable oil and energy markets could keep CPO futures consolidating intraday near resistance levels, it adds. AmInvestment Bank pegs resistance at 4,809 ringgit a ton and support at 4,725 ringgit a ton. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for January delivery is up 22 ringgit at 4,791 ringgit a ton.
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