The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1543 ET - The oil market shakes off early lethargy and pushes prices higher as conflict in the Middle East and Ukraine's renewed targeting of Russian refineries fuels supply concerns. "The main source of international uncertainty remains the security of energy transportation in the Middle East," XS.com senior market analyst Antonio Di Giacomo says in a note. "Risks to Russian energy infrastructure add to this backdrop." Front-month WTI settles up 3.5% at $101.41 a barrel, its highest close in a month, while Brent gains 3.7% to $109.86, its highest since May 19. The $100-per-barrel area is a psychological reference for WTI, Di Giacomo says. "Holding above that level would reinforce perceptions of supply pressure, although it would not guarantee further gains." (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1542 ET - U.S. natural gas futures fall as the market looks beyond this weekend's cold spell in the Northeast that is expected to drive up residential and commercial heating demand. "Heating demand should retreat after the weekend, but supply restrictions could persist longer, while firm LNG utilization continues to cushion the decline in domestic consumption," Gelber & Associates says in a note. "Traders may also be reassessing Thursday's 67 Bcf [storage] injection: the smaller build initially attracted buying, but inventories remain above the five-year average, El Niño-related expectations continue to temper the winter demand outlook." Nymex natural gas settles down 3.7% at $3.116/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1501 ET - Livestock futures finish higher, breaking from the pressure that hit grain futures. Live cattle futures settle up 0.5% to $2.2845 a pound, while lean hog futures close up 1% to 69.1 cents a pound. For livestock, particularly supportive was the USDA's weekly export sales report, released a day late on Friday due to the Columbus Day/Indigenous People's Day holidays observed on Monday. The USDA says that for the week ended October 8, beef export sales totaled 19,800 metric tons - up 52% from the prior week. Pork sales totaled 36,300 tons, which is up 35% from the previous week. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1358 ET - Gold futures settle modestly higher as the U.S. dollar weakens for a second session, with gains limited by a slight uptick in U.S. yields. Most market participants still expect the Fed to hold rates steady this month, which could provide some relief for gold, DHF Capital's Bas Kooijman says in a note. "However, it could remain vulnerable to downside risks as markets continue to see more tightening in December and beyond." High oil prices keep up risks for inflation and tighter monetary policy, he adds. Front month gold settles up 0.3% in New York at $4,159.50 a troy ounce. Silver also edges up 0.3% to $56.995 a troy ounce. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1353 ET - There's speculation fund traders are pulling out of long positions in corn, says Charlie Sernatinger of Marex in a note. "[Corn is] down anticipating a weekend harvest prehedge tonight, more chart selling, and talk that macro funds are exiting commodities anticipating a U.S. recession," says Sernatinger. Last week's Commitments of Traders report from the CFTC showed a sizable decrease in long corn positions, with nearly 55,000 long contracts shown being closed. The CFTC will be updating its report this afternoon, although the data is a few days behind. CBOT corn is down 0.9% to $4.86 a bushel. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1339 ET - The number of rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. fell by three this week to 459, a first decline in seven weeks, and was up 41 from a year ago, oil services company Baker Hughes reports. Rigs drilling for natural gas edged up by one to 133, or 12 more than at this time last year. U.S. producers have been drilling more this year with the Middle East conflict pushing up oil prices. In its 3Q energy survey, the Kansas City Fed said firms reported they needed an average oil price of $64 a barrel for drilling to be profitable, and $85 a barrel "for a substantial increase in drilling to occur." For natural gas, $3.59 per million British thermal units were necessary for profitable drilling and $4.70/mmBtu for a substantial increase. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1243 ET - Soybean futures, along with soy products like meal and oil, may have some sizable downside in the near-term, says Dave Toth of StoneX in a note. Toth speculates that soybeans could potentially follow the weakness seen in corn in recent trading sessions, with the latter dropping below the $5-a-bushel threshold earlier this month. Soybeans may be priming for a larger loss than its seen so far this fall. "November's soybean break below last Friday's $12.70 [a bushel] low reaffirms a developing peak/correction/reversal threat that, given historically skewed bullish sentiment, could result in accelerated downside vulnerability similar to the recent corn plunge," says Toth. CBOT soybeans are down 0.2%, while corn falls 0.8% and wheat is down 1.3%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1219 ET - A change in how traders are viewing the weather in crop-growing regions around the world may be a factor in why grain futures have been trending lower this fall. "The weather story that helped fuel grain-market optimism is beginning to unravel," says Scott Mathews of BestWeather in a note. "Improving rainfall across the U.S. Plains, favorable early-season conditions in South America, and substantial speculative exposure could leave corn, soybeans, and wheat vulnerable to additional selling." Mathews points to a record-sized U.S. soybean crop and a near-record U.S. corn crop despite adverse weather as a factor making traders less hung up on following weather developments. CBOT grains turned lower midday, with corn down 1%, soybeans down 0.4%, and wheat dropping 1.5%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1145 ET - U.S. farmers are increasingly utilizing drones to spray their farmland, says the American Farm Bureau Federation in a note. The AFBF says that 16.4 million acres of farmland were sprayed by drones in 2025, up roughly five times from 3.7 million acres in 2023. The usage of drones is increasing as farmers see them as ways to handle problems with accessing certain portions of their fields. "The biggest advantages for drones come in wet fields, rough terrain, irregularly shaped fields and situations where timely product applications are critical," says Bernt Nelson of the AFBF. Drone usage in 2025 jumped 59% from 2024, the AFBF says. This year, excessive rainfall in many parts of the Corn Belt are making access to fields by combines harder to manage. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1024 ET - Elevated oil prices boosted Canada's purchasing power but the gains are uneven across the country, Royal Bank of Canada says. Real gross domestic income expanded 3.1% on-year in 2Q, nearly triple the pace of real GDP growth after a 46% surge in oil added about C$12 billion a quarter to export revenue. Royal Bank says oil producers and resource-rich provinces are capturing a disproportionate share of the initial windfall, while most households face higher costs without offsetting income gains. This complicates monetary policy, since the Bank of Canada controls only one interest rate for the entire country, Royal Bank adds. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)
1019 ET - The USDA this week announced multiple export sales of U.S. soybeans to China, including a new flash sale of 558,000 tons announced today. An additional 236,000 tons of soybeans sold to "unknown destinations" were also reported. "Unknown destinations" is an alternative moniker that's often used for Chinese buyers, although not necessarily the case. But CBOT soybeans are lower, as China's return to buying U.S. soybeans was at least partially expected, says Joe Davis of Futures International in a note. "The recent demand therefore provides support but has not yet been sufficient to offset harvest pressure." Soybeans fall 0.7%, while corn is off 0.7% and wheat slides 1.2%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1001 ET - Oil futures are steady in early U.S. trading with continuing strikes in the Middle East, and the absence of a Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire keeping prices afloat while traders consider the IEA's plan to accelerate the release of 100 million barrels of emergency stocks, part of previously agreed supply. Unrest in the Middle East is the main driver and traders maintain a "buy the price breaks type trade," Dennis Kissler of BOK Financial says in a note. Front-month WTI is up 0.2% at $98.18 a barrel, and Brent is up 0.1% at $106.02 a barrel.
Comments