The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1529 ET - U.S. natural gas futures post back-to-back losses with the market focusing more on a soft near-term outlook for weather-driven demand than solid LNG exports. Despite some additional cold in overnight forecasts, the weather pattern looks "rather bearish" for the next two weeks, NatGasWeather.com says in a note. Other reasons for selling could include "weather patterns taking on an El El Niño-like set up for late October into November to suggest this winter will in fact play out warmer than normal for lighter than normal demand," the forecaster adds. Nymex natural gas settles down 1.9% at $3.0580/mmBtu.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1410 ET - Gold futures settle lower as the U.S. dollar firms, yields rise and oil prices pare early losses. "The relationship between energy prices, inflation expectations, and Federal Reserve policy remains central to gold's near-term direction," Naeem Aslam of Zaye Capital Markets says in a note. Lower oil prices could favor bullion by easing inflationary pressure and expectations for tighter monetary policy, he says. But persistent geopolitical tension and high energy costs could mean interest rates remain restrictive for longer. "This would increase the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets such as gold." Front month gold falls 0.5% in New York to $4,139 a troy ounce. Silver loses a couple of cents to $56.974 a troy ounce. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1307 ET - The latest Canadian inflation data suggest limited spillover from higher energy prices into broader inflation, which should keep the Bank of Canada on hold through 2026 despite recent hawkish comments from Gov. Tiff Macklem, argues Nomura's Ruchir Sharma. Headline CPI inflation rose to 3.1% on-year in September from 3%, but excluding gasoline slowed to 2.2% from 2.4%. Sharma notes shelter inflation edged higher due to utility and insurance costs, while rent inflation remained subdued. Core services inflation moderated, and Sharma says weak labor markets and easing wage growth should mean wage-sensitive core inflation will cool. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)
1228 ET - The pullback in oil futures lacks conviction amid doubts that President Trump's waiving of some new Russia sanctions will do much to increase energy supply. "The big question is: will it work?" Peter Cardillo of Spartan Capital says in a note. The waiver could provide temporary relief, "but with the war in Iran and renewed Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries, oil prices are unlikely to decline significantly." They could even surpass last week's highs, he adds. The most active WTI contract is off 0.3% at $98.70 a barrel and Brent is down 0.4% at $109.47. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1107 ET - U.S. natural gas futures give up early gains and move lower, adding to Friday's losses. "While tightening storage comparisons and stronger export demand provide underlying support, inventories remain relatively comfortable heading into winter," Andy Huenefeld of Pinebrook Energy Advisors says in a note. Near-term weather forecasts suggest below-normal heating needs, he adds. "A meaningful shift in the weather outlook may be necessary to establish a more durable rally." Nymex natural gas is off 1.2% at $3.078/mmBtu.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0953 ET - Oil futures are lower after President Trump waived new sanctions against Russia in a bid to improve energy supply. Conflict in the Middle East will likely contain the decline, Exness senior market strategist Christopher Tahir says in a note. "Tensions between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis remain elevated, while traffic through the Strait of Hormuz continues to face restrictions amid security incidents," he says. "Further disruption to Russian export infrastructure or an escalation in the Middle East could offset the expected policy relief and restore upward pressure." Brent is down 2% at $107.69 a barrel and most-active WTI is down 1.8% at $97.25 a barrel. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0912 ET - U.S. natural gas futures start the week higher, continuing their recent pattern of alternating gains and losses from one day to the next. "Domestic demand is falling into seasonal norms with overnight heating demands in the Northeast in the high teens, while power and industrial sector consumption remains relatively strong on a combination of electrification demands and lingering heat in some areas," Gary Cunningham of Tradition Energy says in a note. Steady supply is met with strong LNG feedgas flows and pipeline exports to Mexico, which together take up about 25% of supply, he adds. Nymex natural gas is up 1.4% at $3.158/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0814 ET - Investors are rewarding BP's deleveraging strategy after windfall earnings helped cut net debt, Jefferies analyst Mark Wilson writes. The British energy major's planned strategy and outlook update will help shift the narrative away from asset disposals toward growth and shareholder returns, he says. Shares trade 0.15% higher at 614.90 pence.(adam.whittaker@wsj.com)
0752 ET - Cryptocurrencies rise as risk appetite recovers and seasonality suggests they should remain supported until year-end, IG analyst Chris Beauchamp says in a note. "Markets are probably bigger prisoners of seasonality than anyone would care to admit--the fourth quarter is a better time for stocks and cryptocurrencies, and while this year's worries are different to last year's, there is still plenty of weight left in the bullish case." U.S. earnings this week and next will, however, prove key along with oil prices for the performance of stocks and cryptocurrencies, he says. Bitcoin rises 1.6% to $82,212, according to LSEG. Ethereum rises 2.9% to $2,419.(renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0449 ET - Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain below prewar levels, according to the latest Kpler data. Confirmed flows totaled 9.87 million barrels a day on Saturday, while the seven-day average of 10.17 million barrels a day was 41% below its prewar baseline. Alternative export routes have partly offset the shortfall. Combined flows including Gulf of Oman terminals and Red Sea shipments averaged 19.04 million barrels a day over seven days, 19% below the baseline. Loadings at Fujairah and Oman terminals, along with Red Sea volumes, exceeded prewar levels, Kpler says. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0345 ET - European natural-gas prices remain elevated as concerns over storage levels raise questions about the region's preparedness for winter. In early trading, the benchmark Dutch TTF contract is up 1.2% to 88.60 euros a megawatt-hour, taking its monthly gains to more than 11%. According to industry group Gas Infrastructure Europe, EU gas inventories are approximately 74% full, well below the historical average for this time of year. The situation is particularly concerning in Germany, where storage facilities are only 61% full ahead of the Nov. 1 deadline for inventories to reach at least 80%. Persistently low stock levels could increase competition for available supplies as heating consumption rises during colder months, leaving the European market more vulnerable if supply constraints intensify or demand exceeds expectations. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0331 ET - Oil prices slide after President Trump waived some sanctions and tariffs on Russia, with Brent crude falling 2.3% to $107.36 a barrel in early European trading. The November WTI futures contract--which expires Tuesday--is down 1.8% to $99.57 a barrel, while the December contract declines 2.1% to $96.97. "The retreat reflects changing supply expectations after President Trump announced temporary relief from Russia-related energy sanctions and tariffs, potentially allowing additional Russian diesel exports to reach international markets," says Naeem Aslam from Zaye Capital Markets. Still, continued tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and high shipping costs limit sustained price declines, keeping the geopolitical risk elevated.
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