The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0743 ET - Global fertilizer supplies remain constrained by disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and China's export restrictions, S&P Global Ratings says. The strait normally carries about half of global fertilizer feedstock exports and one-third of global urea exports, but shipments through the waterway had not materially recovered as of early September. China's restrictions on phosphate exports have also kept shipments of certain products at 50% to 80% of normal levels. Although urea prices have fallen sharply from their April peaks, S&P expects fertilizer markets to remain under pressure through the rest of 2026, with only gradual relief anticipated in 2027. (farhan.rafid@wsj.com)
0612 ET - Palm oil ended higher in Asia, supported by strong export data. Malaysia's Oct. 1-20 palm oil exports are estimated to have risen 78% on month, according to cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri. Crude palm oil futures were also driven by firmer vegetable oil prices and a stronger crude oil market, says David Ng, a trader at Kuala Lumpur-based Iceberg X. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for January delivery rose 52 ringgit to 4,818 ringgit a ton. (amanda.lee@wsj.com)
0553 ET - Indonesia's Jakarta Composite Index posted its biggest daily percentage gain in more than four months, rebounding from a two-session selloff sparked by index provider MSCI's warning the country could be reclassified as a standalone market. The advance came as Indonesia pledged new equity-market reforms to restore a semblance of investor confidence, MUFG Bank's Michael Wan says in a report. He notes the exchange's plan to remove tightly owned stocks from the JCI, as well as mandate disclosure for shareholders with an at least 1% stake. Among advancers, Barito Pacific rose 20% and Pertamina Geothermal Energy added 19%. The benchmark index rose 5.65% to close at 5278.89. (amanda.lee@wsj.com)
0524 ET - Goldman Sachs raised its copper price forecasts, citing a tightening global market as China's shortage of scrap boosts demand for refined copper, while the U.S. continues to import metal and build inventories ahead of potential tariffs. With weaker-than-expected mine supply, the U.S. bank now sees supply deficits outside the U.S. widening to 950,000 tons in 2026 and 220,000 tons in 2027. Goldman forecasts copper at $14,700 a ton by end-2026 and an average of $15,400 a ton in 2027, up from $13,735 and $13,800, respectively. In midmorning European trading, three-month copper prices on the LME are flat at $14,373.50 an ounce. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0517 ET - Gulf economies face pressure from disruptions to fertilizer supply chains and their reliance on imported food as the Strait of Hormuz conflict continues, S&P Global Ratings says. The region is exposed both as an energy and fertilizer supplier and as a major food importer. Higher nitrogen and phosphate prices relative to agricultural commodity prices have weakened fertilizer affordability globally, while China's export restrictions and a sulfur shortage continue to constrain supplies. S&P expects pressure on fertilizer markets to persist through the rest of 2026, with only gradual improvement in 2027, raising concerns about food costs and agricultural demand. (farhan.rafid@wsj.com)
0438 ET - Gold prices slip in early European trading as rising energy prices heighten inflation concerns, while investors await next week's Federal Reserve policy meeting for more cues on the rate outlook. "Overall, bullion remains confined to a relatively narrow range with key resistance located around $4,230, caught between macroeconomic headwinds and continued demand from investors seeking protection against fiscal and geopolitical risks," analysts at Saxo Bank say. New York gold futures are down 0.5% at $4,140.30 a troy ounce. Meanwhile, silver futures are up 0.4% to $57.50 an ounce, while platinum rises 0.2% to $1,652.50 an ounce. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0332 ET - Anglo American's third-quarter production update presents a mixed picture, J.P. Morgan analyst Dominic O'Kane writes. Its quarterly copper production was slightly lighter than expected but the miner's full-year copper cost guidance was lowered again by 4%, O'Kane says. The reduced copper cost guidance should lead to a small upward revision to full-year earnings consensus, he writes. Shares rise 2.3% to 3,972 pence.(adam.whittaker@wsj.com)
2243 ET - Iron ore prices are lower in early Asian trade, weighed by high port inventories in China and weakening steelmaking demand, says Anliang Futures analysts in a note. Steelmakers' losses have curbed their appetite for restocking after preholiday purchases ended, they add. Also, port inventories continued to build, keeping pressure on prices, they say. The market will watch for changes in hot-metal output and the pace of inventory drawdowns, while persistent macro headwinds and lackluster domestic demand remain key downside risks, they add. The most actively traded January iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange is 0.7% lower at 677.50 yuan a ton. (jiahui.huang@wsj.com; @ivy_jiahuihuang)
2241 ET - Palm oil rises in Asian trading, driven by stronger sentiment across vegetable oil markets and expectations of a recovery in export demand, says David Ng, trader at Kuala Lumpur-based Iceberg X. However, concerns over elevated Malaysian inventories may continue to weigh on sentiment, he adds. Ng pegs resistance at 4,800 ringgit a ton and support at 4,725 ringgit a ton. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for January delivery is up 33 ringgit at 4,799 ringgit a ton. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
2226 ET - Gold edges lower in early Asia trade. Bond yields remain elevated due to a selloff in French bonds after the latest violent unrest in the country, ANZ Research analysts say in a note. "Liquidity was also low, with traders unsure over the interest rate outlook," they add. A higher interest-rate environment typically diminishes the allure of the non-interest-yielding yellow metal. Spot gold is 0.1% lower at $4,136.46 an ounce. (amanda.lee@wsj.com)
2223 ET - Copper edges lower in early Asian trading. While prices rose on expectations that President Trump might impose tariffs on the metal, some investors now doubt they will materialize, according to ANZ Research analysts. That said, continuing supply-side issues are likely to limit the downward pressure on prices, ANZ writes in a commentary. A major copper smelter in South Korea might cut output as a global shortage of copper concentrate squeezes margins, which could reduce supply of the metal, the analysts add. The three-month LME copper contract is down 0.2% at $14,317.00 a ton. (tracy.qu@wsj.com)
1954 ET - There was good and bad news about BHP Group's copper business in 1Q, according to RBC Capital Markets. BHP reported quarterly copper output of 400,700 tons. That was 6% below consensus hopes, RBC says. However, pricing was stronger than expected. BHP said its copper fetched an average realized price of US$7.01/lb in the quarter. That was 8% higher than RBC expected. "Overall, a strong quarter for BHP's bulk commodities while consensus appears to have underestimated the pace of the copper grade decline at Escondida and Pampa Norte in Chile," analyst James Redfern says. RBC had a sector perform call and target price of 60.00 Australian dollars on BHP ahead of the update. BHP is down 2.2% at A$59.13 in early trade.
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