USDA soybean-oil forecast implies roughly 600 million additional D4 RINs

Fastmarkets10-19 12:00

USDA maintained its forecast for 17.8 billion lb of soybean oil to be used for biofuel production during the 2026-27 marketing year in its October 9 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (...

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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUSDA soybean-oil forecast implies roughly 600 million additional D4 RINs\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-10-19 12:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/usda-soybean-oil-forecast-implies-roughly-600-million-additional-d4-rins/><strong>Fastmarkets</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>USDA maintained its forecast for 17.8 billion lb of soybean oil to be used for biofuel production during the 2026-27 marketing year in its October 9 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/usda-soybean-oil-forecast-implies-roughly-600-million-additional-d4-rins/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"USL","symbol_name":"United States 12 Month Oil Fund LP","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/usda-soybean-oil-forecast-implies-roughly-600-million-additional-d4-rins/","article_id":"2676832606","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"fastmarkets_highlight","url":"https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/usda-soybean-oil-forecast-implies-roughly-600-million-additional-d4-rins/","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2676832606","pubTimestamp":1792382400,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"fastmarkets_highlight","name":"Fastmarkets"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"The United States Department of Agriculture’s latest soybean-oil demand forecast implies roughly 600-630 million additional D4 Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs), providing another benchmark against which to evaluate whether US biomass-based diesel production is accelerating sufficiently to support higher Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) volumes.","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"fastmarkets.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"USL":"United States 12 Month Oil Fund LP","ERX":"二倍做多能源ETF-Direxion","USO":"美国原油ETF","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","XLE":"SPDR能源指数ETF","FTXN":"First Trust Nasdaq Oil & Gas ETF","USOI":"ETRACS Crude Oil Shares Covered Call ETN","SOYB":"Teucrium Soybean Fund","DRLL":"Strive U.S. Energy ETF","OILK":"ProShares K-1 Free Crude Oil ETF","IXC":"全球能源业ETF-iShares","PXJ":"Invesco Oil & Gas Services ETF","VDE":"Vanguard Energy ETF","OILT":"Texas Oil Index ETF","BNO":"美国布伦特原油基金有限合伙企业","OILU":"MicroSectors Oil & Gas Exp. & Prod. 3x Leveraged ETN","BWET":"BREAKWAVE TANKER SHIPPING ETF","DIG":"二倍做多美国油气指数","FUE":"ELEMENTS Linked to the MLCX Biofuels Index Total Return","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF","GUSH":"Direxion Daily S&P Oil & Gas Exp. & Prod. Bull 2X ETF","DBO":"原油ETF-PowerShares","WTIU":"MICROSECTORS ENERGY 3X LEVERAGED ETN","IEO":"iShares Dow Jones U.S. Oil & Gas","UGA":"United States Gasoline Fund LP","DUG":"二倍做空石油与天然气ETF(ProShares)","BK4588":"碎股","XES":"SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Equipment & Services ETF","DBC":"商品指数ETF-PowerShares DB","XOP":"油气开采指数ETF-SPDR S&P","PXE":"Invesco Energy Exploration & Production ETF","DBE":"能源商品ETF-PowerShares","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF","DRIP":"Direxion Daily S&P Oil & Gas Exp. & Prod. Bear 2X ETF","OIH":"石油服务ETF","USE":"USCF Energy Commodity Strategy Absolute Return Fund","BK4570":"地缘局势概念股","FBZ":"First Trust Brazil AlphaDEX Fund"},"translate_title":"美国农业部豆油预测意味着大约 6 亿个额外的 D4 RINs","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"XOP":1.5,"XLE":1.5,"USL":1.5,"DBE":1.5,"DIG":1.5,"IEO":1.5,"PXE":1.5,"IXC":1.5,"UGA":1.5,"UCO":0.6,"USOI":1.5,"WTIU":1.5,"XES":1.5,"OILT":1.5,"USE":1.5,"PXJ":1.5,"FBZ":1.5,"FUE":0.9,"VDE":1.5,"ERX":1.5,"DUG":1.5,"SOYB":1.5,"OILU":1.5,"BWET":1.5,"DRLL":1.5,"BNO":1.5,"DRIP":1.5,"OIH":1.5,"SCO":0.6,"FTXN":1.5,"USO":1.5,"OILK":1.5,"DBC":1.5,"GUSH":1.5,"DBO":1.5},"content_text":"USDA maintained its forecast for 17.8 billion lb of soybean oil to be used for biofuel production during the 2026-27 marketing year in its October 9 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), unchanged from September and up from an estimated 14.8 billion lb in 2025-26.\nThe projection represents an increase of 3 billion lb, or approximately 20.3%, in soybean oil consumption for biofuel production between the two marketing years.\nUsing an industry conversion of approximately 7.5 lb of soybean oil per gallon of biodiesel, the additional 3 billion lb would be sufficient to produce roughly 400 million gallons of biodiesel. At a 1.5-RIN-per-gallon equivalence value, that would generate approximately 600 million D4 RINs.\nThe renewable diesel calculation produces a similar result. The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) estimates that soybean oil input volume is approximately 3.1% greater than the resulting renewable diesel volume. Using the same 7.5-lb-per-gallon soybean oil conversion, 3 billion additional pounds represents roughly 400 million gallons of soybean oil and could support approximately 388 million gallons of renewable diesel.\nUSDA’s soybean oil marketing year runs from October through September, spanning two calendar years with different renewable diesel RIN equivalence values. Assuming the incremental soybean oil use is distributed evenly through the marketing year, approximately one-quarter would fall in calendar 2026 and three-quarters in 2027.\nEPA projects renewable diesel produced in 2026 will generate approximately 1.7 RINs per gallon, while it expects the majority of renewable diesel produced in 2027 to generate 1.6 RINs per gallon following changes to renewable diesel equivalence values.\nApplying those equivalence values to the illustrative production split would generate approximately 165 million D4 RINs during the final three months of 2026 and 466 million during the first nine months of 2027, for approximately 630 million incremental D4 RINs.\nThe biodiesel and renewable diesel pathways therefore suggest USDA’s projected 3-billion-lb increase in soybean oil biofuel consumption is broadly equivalent to approximately 600-630 million additional D4 RINs if the incremental soybean oil is used primarily to produce either fuel.\nThe estimate is illustrative rather than a projection of actual D4 generation. Soybean oil is only one of several feedstocks used in biomass-based diesel production, alongside animal fats, used cooking oil, canola oil, corn oil and other inputs. Changes in feedstock mix, biodiesel versus renewable diesel production and the timing of production would affect the resulting RIN volume.\nThe calculation nevertheless provides an independent benchmark against which the emerging D4 production trajectory can be evaluated, offering a rough measure of the additional D4 generation embedded in USDA’s soybean oil demand expectations.\nRecent EPA D4 generation data have not yet shown an acceleration equivalent to the production growth implied by higher 2026 and 2027 RFS volumes, increasing the importance of USDA’s continued assumption of sharply higher soybean oil demand.\nD4 RINs primarily represent biomass-based diesel production, including biodiesel and renewable diesel, making generation data one measure of the physical production trajectory underlying biofuel feedstock demand.\nUSDA and EPA data are not directly comparable because of differences in reporting periods, feedstock mix, imports and exports, and RIN equivalence values. But USDA’s 17.8-billion-lb soybean oil projection provides a separate measure of the level of biomass-based diesel demand the agency expects to develop.\nUSDA has maintained the 17.8-billion-lb forecast through its October 9 WASDE while additional production, feedstock and RIN-generation data have continued to become available.\nThe agency also left its 2026-27 soybean crush forecast unchanged at 2.780 billion bushels and maintained its season-average soybean oil price forecast at 70¢ per lb.\nAt the same time, USDA reduced projected 2026-27 soybean oil ending stocks to 1.797 billion lb from 1.877 billion lb in September.\nProjected soybean oil beginning stocks were lowered more sharply, to 1.657 billion lb from 1.837 billion lb, while projected imports were raised to 700 million lb from 600 million lb.\nUSDA left projected soybean oil use for biofuel, other domestic use and exports unchanged.\nThe tighter soybean oil balance adds significance to the agency’s decision to retain the 17.8-billion-lb biofuel forecast. USDA is maintaining a strong biomass-based diesel demand assumption while projecting less soybean oil inventory at the end of the marketing year than it did one month earlier.\nFor the D4 market, the key question is whether biodiesel and renewable diesel production accelerates sufficiently to generate the feedstock demand USDA continues to anticipate.\nUSDA’s October outlook assumes that it will.\nDaily Fastmarkets charts","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"isLaohu8Offline":false,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.52.0","shortVersion":"4.52.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2676832606","isCrawlerRequest":true}