TradingKey - On the morning of October 20, Eastern Time, Eli Lilly (LLY) saw its stock price break above $1,300 intraday, surpassing the high of $1,292.65 set on August 19. As the stock price reached a new high, investors are focused on whether the regulatory progress and prescription growth of the oral weight-loss drug Foundayo can be further reflected in Eli Lilly's revenue.
As of press time, Eli Lilly was up 4.59% at $1,297.31, reaching an intraday high of $1,304.31.
Eli Lilly stock price chart, Source: TradingView
Foundayo Moves Closer to European Market, Sales Remain to Be Verified
The European Medicines Agency's (EMA) Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use has recommended the approval of Foundayo for adult weight management and the treatment of type 2 diabetes. The European Commission still needs to make the final decision; even if approved, drug pricing and reimbursement arrangements will be determined individually by member states.
It is reported that Novo Nordisk's oral Wegovy received EU approval in July this year, meaning Eli Lilly will still face competition upon entering the market.
One of Foundayo's selling points is its flexible dosing schedule, free from food and drink restrictions. Two weight management studies cited by the EMA involved a total of 4,740 adults: after 72 weeks of treatment, patients taking the drug lost an average of about 5% to 11% of their weight, varying by dosage. This convenience will help Eli Lilly win over patients reluctant to take injections.
Eli Lilly disclosed that Foundayo's second-quarter sales were $98 million. Compared with the company's total revenue of $22.974 billion over the same period, it remains in the early stages of commercialization. European regulatory progress could improve long-term sales expectations, while the near-term stock price will depend more on subsequent sales volume for support.
Citing a third-quarter physician survey, BofA Securities noted that Foundayo accounts for approximately 27% of new oral GLP-1 patients, with the survey indicating its market share could reach 40% by 2028 to 2029. Consequently, the firm raised its price target for Eli Lilly from $1,341 to $1,397 and maintained a "Buy" rating.
New Prescription Data Raises Hopes as Earnings Set to Test Expectations
Another development for Eli Lilly comes from Omvoh. The company's pediatric ulcerative colitis trial announced on October 19 met its primary endpoint: among the 52 patients who responded at week 12 and entered subsequent treatment, 50% achieved clinical remission at week 52. Eli Lilly plans to apply for an expanded indication based on this, though pediatric use is not currently approved. This adds a growth opportunity for an existing product, though its revenue contribution remains subject to regulatory decisions and post-market uptake.
Eli Lilly has confirmed that it will report its third-quarter results on October 29. The stock breaking above its previous high indicates the market is willing to pay a higher price for its growth prospects; whether sales and prescriptions for Foundayo can keep pace with these expectations will serve as a more direct basis for evaluating whether the rally can be sustained.
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