The energy sector will kick off its earnings season on Tuesday -- and what a season it will be. Earnings per share for energy companies in the S&P 500 are set to jump 128%, based on the latest estimates compiled by FactSet. That's roughly twice as much as tech.
Energy's year-over-year growth probably won't be quite as high as the second quarter, when earnings jumped 146% on the back of international oil prices that averaged $98 per barrel. In the third quarter, average oil prices slumped slightly to $91. But in some ways the third-quarter gains are even more surprising -- most analysts expected that the Iran War would begin to dissipate by the middle of the summer. And yet here we are, still deep into a war with no obvious end in sight.
With several stocks already at or near record highs -- including ExxonMobil Holdings -- investors will set a high bar for more gains.
The biggest questions now for energy companies are what they plan to do with all the cash they're making, and whether they will seize this opportunity to boost drilling.
Halliburton, the oil services company that kicks off energy earnings season on Tuesday, is in position to answer the second question. Halliburton is the largest oil services company for U.S. shale, which accounts for the largest share of U.S. production. U.S. producers are starting to ramp up activity. After years of decline, the number of drilling rigs is finally starting to rise again, with rigs deployed on land already up 10% this year in the U.S.
That said, activity will have to rise quite a bit more to help oil services stocks. Halliburton's earnings per share are expected to be flat compared with last year, at 58 cents. Its 0% growth estimate actually puts it ahead of its peers. The oil equipment and services industry is the one subsector of energy where the average stock is expected to post year-over year earnings declines.
That said, some analysts see services companies like Halliburton as intriguing stocks precisely because they have missed out on much of the rally that has lifted other energy names. Halliburton is also growing overseas, and has made preliminary deals to provide services in Venezuela. If it closes those deals, that could be a recipe for the stock to start to take off.
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