The recreational vehicle business has been in a funk lately as high interest rates on loans and dramatically higher fuel prices have put a damper on sales. While that backdrop has brutalized the stocks of leading RV makers Thor and Winnebago this year, Winnebago surprised investors Wednesday with an upbeat earnings report.
At first look, the RV maker's fourth-quarter numbers are nothing to brag about. The narrow beat on earnings per share of 49 cents versus analyst estimates of 47 cents a share was nice, but the 17% drop in revenue to $645 million compared with the $777 million during the same period in 2025 was less than stellar.
Still, investors were able to look beyond the revenue miss to more positive signals. One bright spot: The company is forecasting fiscal year 2027 adjusted earnings of $1.65 to $2.25 a share, with a midpoint of $1.95 that is well above 2026's $1.79. Winnebago's 2026 fiscal year ended in August.
The RV sector is "pretty bombed out," Jefferies analyst Bret Jordan told Barron's, but "people seem to like the +9% guide for EPS (earnings per share)."
After falling more than 40% this year through Tuesday's market close, Winnebago shares were up 8% Wednesday at $25.09. They were up around 10% earlier in the day.
"Even as market pressure across our segments persisted, we began to see encouraging early signs across several strategic initiatives," Winnebago CEO Michael Happe said.
There are other promising signs. Operational efficiencies and cost cutting paid off in terms of boosting the operating income margin in its core motorhome RV division by 2.4% to $7.9 million versus a decline of 0.1% during the same period last year.
The RV maker also improved its cash flow, with net cash provided by operating activities rising more than 30% compared with the same period last year to $168.7 million. And in August, it increased its quarterly dividend by 3% to 36 cents.
Bigger challenges are coming, however, with RV shipments across the industry dropping 16.4% in August from the year earlier, according to the RV Industry Association trade group. Conventional motor homes saw the biggest decline, falling 28.6%.
Winnebago doesn't break out unit sales for its conventional motor homes in its overall shipments, which also include towables and boats. But it does forecast a decline in overall unit shipments for the 2026 calendar year to 275,000 to 295,000, compared with 2025's estimated 320,000 to 340,000 units.
For now, however, investors seem willing to give Winnebago the benefit of the doubt, even as tough market conditions persist.
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