Americans might have a fourth national telecom provider to complain about. SpaceX is coming, but how soon could it launch mobile service?
Citi analyst Michael Rollins sees it happening no earlier than 2029 and more likely 2030 to 2032.
That might be too conservative, but there are a few reasons for Rollins' timeline. For starters, SpaceX likely needs more wireless spectrum -- essentially the pipes that carry wireless data. It has amassed about 80 megahertz of spectrum. T-Mobile US has about 400 megahertz.
SpaceX is likely to build its own ground-based network infrastructure, added Rollins in a Friday report.
The hardware alone would cost $20 billion. SpaceX would need to spend another $20 billion on more wireless spectrum. That's in addition to the ongoing spending on SpaceX's existing connectivity business. All told, additional spending on wireless communications could easily top $100 billion by 2031, he says.
It all takes time, but SpaceX could shortcut the process by just buying an existing player, Rollins says. It would also be a more capital-efficient way to launch service. Wireless telecoms trade at a discount to their assets.
For AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile, the timing matters: A faster launch would give them less time to prepare for a new national competitor.
Musk's other ventures offer an example of how quickly his companies can move. What was then xAI brought its Colossus data center in Memphis online in 122 days. But Musk's ambitious deadlines haven't always held up.
He predicted one million robo-taxis on the road by 2020 and humans on Mars by 2025. Investors are still waiting. He's also predicted 20 million Tesla vehicle sales by 2030. (Tesla is expected to sell fewer than 2 million cars in 2026.)
SpaceX stock was up 1.7% in early trading after Bloomberg reported that SpaceX wanted 80,000 cell sites.
That sent shares of cell tower companies such as Crown Castle higher on Friday. Crown and its peers are like the apartment buildings of the telecom world. Wireless companies move in with their equipment. EchoStar stock was up 2%. Its spectrum portfolio looks more valuable. (It also owns SpaceX stock.) Wireless telecom stocks, including T-Mobile, fell between 2% and 5%.
SpaceX will eventually merge its satellite communications with ground-based infrastructure to provide service. SpaceX has more than 11,000 Starlink satellites in low-Earth orbit.
Starlink is SpaceX's space-based broadband business that ended the third quarter with 13.6 million subscribers in 174 countries. Starlink's third-quarter sales and Ebitda were $5.2 billion and $3.5 billion, respectively.
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