The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1155 ET - U.S. agricultural futures have been sliding in recent trading, but remain poised for more upside heading into next year, says analysts with Goldman Sachs in a note. "Recent declines in agricultural and grain prices don't imply that agricultural risks have faded," says the firm. Instead, the ongoing wars in the Black Sea and Middle East are seen as a continuing risk factor to input costs - costs for things like fuel and fertilizer. A "Super El Niño" is also expected to disrupt weather patterns around the world, which may impact supplies for row crops and soft commodities like cocoa and coffee. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1025 ET - Live cattle futures on the CME are up 0.3% in morning trade, potentially making it the third positive session out of the past four that cattle finishes higher, should it finish up for the day. Cattle futures are trading higher ahead of two USDA reports Friday, the monthly Cattle on Feed and Cold Storage reports - both key in analyzing supply and demand for U.S. cattle. Until then, traders are watching how boxed beef prices move as an indicator for futures. "Boxed beef prices opened the week sharply mixed, with choice boxes down 73 cents [per hundredweight], while select beef surged $6.86 [per cwt]," says AgResource in a note. Lean hogs are up 0.1% in morning trade. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1008 ET - The USDA confirms another flash sale of U.S. soybean exports to China, with 612,000 metric tons for delivery in the 2026/27 marketing year. "China is estimated to have bought more than 60% of the 25 mmt of purchases that were agreed to last year," says Doug Bergman of RCM Alternatives in a note. While grain traders welcome the new influx of Chinese purchasing, the sales do not appear to be spurring a rally in soybean futures which are flat, while corn falls 0.3% and wheat is up 0.2%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
0947 ET - U.S. natural gas futures are lower for a third session as national production rises along with increasing LNG feedgas flows. Record Gulf Coast LNG demand and pipeline constraints helped lift Henry Hub physical prices to a 3-month high $3.32/mmBtu yesterday, "bucking weakness in Nymex futures," Eli Rubin of EBW Analytics says in a note. He sees likely support for the November contract around the $3/mmBtu level. The contract is off 2% at $2.996/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0932 ET - Oil futures gain in early U.S. trading amid persistent risk of Middle East supply disruptions. "In the near total absence of diplomacy and the emergence of further escalation factors, the risks of supply disruption could remain the main obsession, overriding optimism that might stem from any temporary measures aimed at lowering prices," Samer Hasn of XS.com says in a note. Risk of escalation, either from Iran or the U.S. in coming days and weeks could put regional energy infrastructure at risk, while the conflict between Saudi Arabia and Houthis "does not appear to be moving toward de-escalation," he adds. Most-active WTI is up 1.1% at $99.65 a barrel and Brent is up 0.7% at $110.35 a barrel. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0929 ET - CBOT grain futures are higher in early trading, with most-active corn up 0.3%, soybeans rising 0.3%, and wheat climbing 0.8%. Futures rise as President Trump announced a new wave of farm bailouts, directing that U.S. farmers receive $8 billion in new aid to help with high costs for inputs like diesel and fertilizer. The payments will be based on planted acres and estimates of production costs and yields via the USDA--with specific payment rates for each crop being issued in November. In its last farm income forecast published in September, the USDA projected that farmers would receive $47.4 billion in direct payments from the government this year, up nearly $20 billion from 2025. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
0743 ET - Global fertilizer supplies remain constrained by disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and China's export restrictions, S&P Global Ratings says. The strait normally carries about half of global fertilizer feedstock exports and one-third of global urea exports, but shipments through the waterway had not materially recovered as of early September. China's restrictions on phosphate exports have also kept shipments of certain products at 50% to 80% of normal levels. Although urea prices have fallen sharply from their April peaks, S&P expects fertilizer markets to remain under pressure through the rest of 2026, with only gradual relief anticipated in 2027. (farhan.rafid@wsj.com)
0612 ET - Palm oil ended higher in Asia, supported by strong export data. Malaysia's Oct. 1-20 palm oil exports are estimated to have risen 78% on month, according to cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri. Crude palm oil futures were also driven by firmer vegetable oil prices and a stronger crude oil market, says David Ng, a trader at Kuala Lumpur-based Iceberg X. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for January delivery rose 52 ringgit to 4,818 ringgit a ton. (amanda.lee@wsj.com)
0553 ET - Indonesia's Jakarta Composite Index posted its biggest daily percentage gain in more than four months, rebounding from a two-session selloff sparked by index provider MSCI's warning the country could be reclassified as a standalone market. The advance came as Indonesia pledged new equity-market reforms to restore a semblance of investor confidence, MUFG Bank's Michael Wan says in a report. He notes the exchange's plan to remove tightly owned stocks from the JCI, as well as mandate disclosure for shareholders with an at least 1% stake. Among advancers, Barito Pacific rose 20% and Pertamina Geothermal Energy added 19%. The benchmark index rose 5.65% to close at 5278.89. (amanda.lee@wsj.com)
0524 ET - Goldman Sachs raised its copper price forecasts, citing a tightening global market as China's shortage of scrap boosts demand for refined copper, while the U.S. continues to import metal and build inventories ahead of potential tariffs. With weaker-than-expected mine supply, the U.S. bank now sees supply deficits outside the U.S. widening to 950,000 tons in 2026 and 220,000 tons in 2027. Goldman forecasts copper at $14,700 a ton by end-2026 and an average of $15,400 a ton in 2027, up from $13,735 and $13,800, respectively. In midmorning European trading, three-month copper prices on the LME are flat at $14,373.50 an ounce. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0517 ET - Gulf economies face pressure from disruptions to fertilizer supply chains and their reliance on imported food as the Strait of Hormuz conflict continues, S&P Global Ratings says. The region is exposed both as an energy and fertilizer supplier and as a major food importer. Higher nitrogen and phosphate prices relative to agricultural commodity prices have weakened fertilizer affordability globally, while China's export restrictions and a sulfur shortage continue to constrain supplies. S&P expects pressure on fertilizer markets to persist through the rest of 2026, with only gradual improvement in 2027, raising concerns about food costs and agricultural demand. (farhan.rafid@wsj.com)
0438 ET - Gold prices slip in early European trading as rising energy prices heighten inflation concerns, while investors await next week's Federal Reserve policy meeting for more cues on the rate outlook. "Overall, bullion remains confined to a relatively narrow range with key resistance located around $4,230, caught between macroeconomic headwinds and continued demand from investors seeking protection against fiscal and geopolitical risks," analysts at Saxo Bank say. New York gold futures are down 0.5% at $4,140.30 a troy ounce. Meanwhile, silver futures are up 0.4% to $57.50 an ounce, while platinum rises 0.2% to $1,652.50 an ounce.
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