Global Forex and Fixed Income Roundup: Market Talk

The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0804 ET - U.S. tariffs on spirits should also be lowered after President Trump said he would remove duties on Irish whiskey, Nicolas Forissier, France's minister for foreign trade, says. Speaking on the sidelines of a meeting in Dublin Friday, Forissier says he is asking American officials for this on behalf of France. Noting the exemption for Irish whiskey, he says "it should be the same for cognac," and champagne. (edith.hancock@wsj.com)

0635 ET - The U.S. dollar and Treasury yields rise slightly in European midday trade. The dollar gains support from rising oil prices, which often support the currency, both because the U.S. is an oil exporter and due to safe-haven flows. Treasury yields rise after sharp falls the previous day, though their safe-haven role could resurface due to concerns about the sustainability of AI investments and stock-market falls. "Concerns over how technology companies will finance the AI build-out...could limit any meaningful rebound in yields," says VT Markets Dubai's Mahmoud Mashal in a note. The 10-year Treasury yield rises 2.9 basis points to 4.982%, according to Tradeweb. The DXY dollar index rises 0.2% to 101.763. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0633 ET - In the medium term, France will need to reform in order to prevent a continued slide in the country's creditworthiness, RBC BlueBay Asset Management's Mark Dowding says in a note. However, valuations have reached a point "where there is now a lot of bad news already embedded in the price," the fixed-income CIO says. RBC BlueBay also pushes back on the notion that we are witnessing a moment when the stability of European Monetary Union will be called into question. "From this perspective, we see value in sovereign credit in the eurozone, with index level spreads at their widest levels for a number of years," he says. The 10-year French OAT yield falls 2.4 basis points to 5.051%, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0600 ET - Yields on U.K. government bonds, or gilts, trade steady, reversing earlier falls after October's flash U.K. purchasing managers' index came in above forecasts. Gilts underperform eurozone peers, where yields fall after weaker-than-expected eurozone PMI data. The U.K. composite PMI index of business activity rose to 53.1 in October, above the consensus forecast of 52.7 in a WSJ survey. This adds to recent evidence of a robust economy and shows strong inflationary pressures, increasing expectations that the Bank of England will raise interest rates next month and potentially again early next year. Gilt investors remain wary ahead of next week's U.K. budget. The 10-year gilt yield is little changed at 5.328%, Tradeweb data show. (jessica.fleetham@wsj.com)

0502 ET - Sterling rises to a near 17-month high against the euro after a stronger-than-expected flash U.K. purchasing managers' index survey for October. The U.K. composite PMI rose to 53.1 in October from 52.0 in September, exceeding the 52.7 reading forecast by economists in a WSJ survey. The data also showed another sharp rise in input prices and support expectations that the Bank of England could raise interest rates next month. It follows weaker-than-expected eurozone PMI data earlier in the day. The euro falls 0.1% to as low as 0.8360 pounds after the data, from 0.8369 beforehand. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0458 ET - The Philippine central bank will likely keep raising rates until evidence shows price pressures have peaked, JPMorgan economist Jin Tik Ngai says in a note. Headline and core inflation are expected to accelerate further into 2027. JPMorgan reckons the BSP will raise its policy rate by 25 basis points each in December and February, bringing the terminal rate to 6.00%. The bank says there is still a risk of outsize moves, especially in the December policy meeting, if the CPI print remains higher than expected in October and November. (amanda.lee@wsj.com)

0442 ET - The euro remains weaker against the dollar after the flash October eurozone purchasing managers' index survey fell short of estimates. The eurozone composite PMI fell to 51.9 in October from 53.1 in September, although remained above the 50 level that separates expansion from a contraction. Economists in a WSJ survey expected a reading of 52.8. This follows weaker-than-expected French and German PMI composite readings earlier in the day. The euro falls 0.2% to $1.1192, little changed from levels before the eurozone PMI data. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0429 ET - The inflation in chip prices has been a strong growth driver in chip-producing economies such as South Korea and Taiwan, ANZ Research economist Raymond Yeung says in a note. Chip values have surged this year given strong demand for advanced chips, memory and data-center infrastructure, the economist says. Taiwan's exceptional GDP performance in recent quarters reflects the rising relative value of chips compared with other commodities, he says. "Just as resource-abundant economies benefit from rising commodity prices, chip-producing economies have benefited from the premium associated with 'chipflation,'" he says. South Korea and Taiwan's 3Q economic growth outcomes amid mounting artificial-intelligence spending concerns will be important gauges of the sustainability of the AI-led export boom, he adds. (sherry.qin@wsj.com)

0354 ET - The Monetary Authority of Singapore is likely to leave its policy settings unchanged in the near term, after September's core inflation rate came in softer than expected, Barclays economist Brian Tan says in a note. Core CPI rose 2.0% in September, compared to Barclays' forecast of 2.3%. The MAS is expected to shrug off future better-than-expected GDP growth unless core inflation re-accelerates or there are more signs of price pressures from the artificial intelligence boom or the Middle East conflict. While the MAS doesn't have an explicit inflation target, it views average core inflation just below 2% as consistent with overall price stability.(amanda.lee@wsj.com)

0353 ET - Japanese households have so far weathered rising mortgage rates, suggesting the Bank of Japan has room to continue pushing interest rates higher. "Although repayment amounts are expected to continue to increase with a lag as interest rates rise, improvements in the employment and income situation, such as recent wage growth, are likely to mitigate the repayment burden," the BOJ says in its Financial System Report. For existing loans subject to rate revisions during fiscal 2026, monthly repayments are expected to increase by around 5,000 yen, according to the report. (megumi.fujikawa@wsj.com)

0353 ET - China is likely to be the key exception to Eastspring Investments' view that Asian central banks could tighten monetary policy over the next few quarters. China's deflationary pressures from declining property prices, and excess industrial capacity, could weigh on its inflation and growth, says the asset manager in a report. This could sustain pressure for further monetary policy easing in China over the next two quarters through its interest rates and subsidized credit facilities, Eastspring says. Meanwhile, higher-for-longer energy prices and currency weakness could spur central banks in India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia and Taiwan to tighten. Lower energy prices and renewed dollar weakness might allow regional monetary policy to stabilize, Eastspring adds, noting these could emerge around late 1Q-2Q next year. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)

0350 ET - Asian economic growth is likely to moderate gradually over the next several quarters after broadly larger expansion in the first three quarters of 2026, Eastspring Investments says in a report. The asset manager expects growth in global artificial-intelligence capital expenditure to decline but remain elevated. Any shock to AI spending would weaken growth across the region, it says. Interest rates are likely to start rising through 1Q next year as central banks move toward tightening from a period of easing over 2024-2025. Fiscal policy support for certain economies is likely to be reduced as countries lower energy subsidies to repair budget deficits, Eastspring says. China is the main exception to this as its underspending in 1Q-3Q could reverse through 1H next year, Eastspring adds.