Persian Gulf exports have been recovering toward prewar levels, but the risks and costs of getting the oil to market remain stubbornly high
Here's what I'm watching this morning: oil.
More oil has been flowing out of the Persian Gulf, with exports approaching prewar levels. Yet prices have remained stubbornly high, with Brent crude climbing above $110 a barrel early Thursday as fresh attacks in Saudi Arabia revived concerns about supply disruptions.
And prices were elevated before this latest attack. Why aren't they coming down?
Getting oil to market remains expensive and risky, while shortages of refined fuels, particularly diesel, are adding to the pain for consumers.
MarketWatch's Isabel Wang and Myra P. Saefong have an explanation of why relief may not be coming soon.
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Three stories worth your time ...
-- Moderna is about to release the trial results for its cancer vaccine. A lot is riding on this data.
-- A top strategist has a warning for retail investors chasing the AI rally
-- Trump says data centers should generate their own electricity - but experts say only states can mandate that
On markets: JPMorgan strategists think the recent stock-market selloff may have run its course. The analysts' reasoning? Hedge funds have already cut their equity exposure sharply, particularly in semiconductors, potentially reducing the pressure for more selling, Jules Rimmer reports. The strategists also contend investor worries around funding so-called neocloud companies such as CoreWeave are overdone.
On trading: That said, U.S. stock-index futures (ES00) (NQ00) are falling, led by tech, as investors seek safety in bonds and nervously watch the rise in oil prices. Tesla (TSLA) and Meta Platforms (META) are both lower following earnings reports. Meta investors were initially enthusiastic about Muse, Meta's new AI assistant, but those gains evaporated.
-- Follow MarketWatch's real-time stock-market updates.
What is Elon thinking about a merger?
Elon Musk said discussing a Tesla-SpaceX merger was like "tap dancing through a minefield."
Investors hoping Elon Musk would shed light on a possible combination of Tesla (TSLA) and SpaceX (SPCX) came away disappointed Wednesday. The subject was barely raised during Tesla's post-earnings conference call, writes William Gavin, even as Tesla outlined ambitious plans to begin commercial deliveries of its Optimus robot in 2027 and to double its EV manufacturing capacity by 2030.
Some analysts expect a deal eventually. But MarketWatch columnist Mark Hulbert offers a word of caution: Research suggests big mergers have a poor record of creating lasting value for shareholders.
Baby steps ...
"Trump accounts," formally called 530A accounts, were rolled out earlier this year.
"Trump accounts," new investment accounts for kids under 18, have gotten off to a slow start. But a new move by the Social Security Administration may change that, writes Jessica Hall. Now, the SSA will include information about these accounts when they issue Social Security cards for newborns, explaining how parents can set up the accounts, formally known as 530A accounts, and receive a $1,000 contribution from the federal government, if they're eligible. Only 5% of low- and moderate-income families have opened an account for their children, a recent survey found. "I think it's safe to assume more families will activate their accounts because of SSA's outreach," one expert says.
Is it crazy to pay off this mortgage?
The Moneyist, aka Quentin Fottrell.
A couple looking ahead to retirement - one an aggressive investor, the other more cautious - are divided over whether to pay off their $300,000 mortgage, with a rate of 2.75%. Who's right? The Moneyist tackles a familiar dilemma: Is being debt-free worth the tradeoff of potentially impacted investment returns?
Coffee prices rising even more? Gulp ...
Coffee futures have actually fallen this year, but consumers may face further price increases anyway.
Your morning brew could deliver another jolt to your wallet, courtesy of Mother Nature. A powerful El Niño threatens to disrupt coffee harvests around the world, adding to farmers' already steep production costs. And while coffee futures have fallen this year, more than half of coffee roasters surveyed say they plan to raise prices next year, writes Myra Saefong. Coffee isn't the only crop at risk. Sugar and cocoa production could also take a hit.
A healthy bet?
Healthcare stocks have been solid performers so far this month, as it seems investors are willing to pay up for a sector that stands to benefit from AI technology. MarketWatch's Philip van Doorn and Jaimy Lee explain what's behind the new interest in those companies and name seven stocks that are worth a look.
The price of a comfortable retirement ...
Many Americans think they'll need roughly $5,100 a month to live comfortably in retirement. Is that enough? Healthcare costs, inflation and some overlooked expenses could complicate even conservative estimates. Here's what to consider before settling on your own retirement number.
About me
Mark DeCambre is editor in chief of MarketWatch. He has spent more than 20 years covering Wall Street, markets and personal finance, and writes Need to Know, drawing on the award-winning analysis and journalism of the newsroom.
-Mark DeCambre
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