The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0906 ET - Oil futures are steady in early U.S. trading, with WTI for December delivery making its debut at the front of the curve. Yesterday's high of $110 a barrel for the expiring November contract "provides an eventual upside target to WTI when looking across the next 1-2-week time frame," Ritterbusch & Associates says in a note. The firm cautions against chasing WTI higher above $102 "since the bulk of the past week's upside price acceleration appears attributable to increased risk appetite rather than a shift in global crude balances." December WTI is off 0.1% at $97.72 a barrel and Brent is down 0.3% at $108.51 a barrel. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0830 ET - U.S. natural gas futures extend their slide into a fourth session with near-term weather forecasts shedding heating demand. "That has dropped us down through the support around $3 and even below the firmer support at $2.90," Tradition Energy's Gary Cunningham says in a note. With gas for January delivery firmly under $4, it could drive some hedging interest as international buyers still rely on U.S. supplies due to continued restrictions on LNG out of the Persian Gulf, giving support to the December-February strip, he says. Natural gas for November delivery is down 4% at $2.844/mmBtu.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0608 ET - Palm oil ended lower in Asia. Crude palm oil futures were pressured by weaker soybean oil and crude oil prices, says David Ng, a trader at Kuala Lumpur-based Iceberg X. Market sentiment was also weighed by concerns about elevated domestic inventories and expectations of record Malaysian palm oil output in October, he adds. Ng expects CPO futures to find support around 4,600 ringgit a ton and face resistance at 4,800 ringgit a ton. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for January delivery fell 49 ringgit to 4,768 ringgit a ton.(amanda.lee@wsj.com)
0357 ET - Gold prices fall as oil pushes higher, with investors now awaiting next week's Federal Reserve meeting for more cues on the monetary policy outlook. In early European trading, gold futures are down 0.1% to $4,138.90 a troy ounce. The precious metal continues to trade in a tight range, with analysts saying key resistance stands at around $4,230 an ounce. "Treasury yields are pushing higher--marginally--as market anxiety over the inflation outlook builds," analysts at MUFG say. Traders are currently pricing in an 88% probability of a U.S. rate hike in December, according to the CME's FedWatch tool. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
2245 ET - Palm oil rises in Asian trading, tracking stronger soybean oil on the Chicago Board of Trade overnight. Firmness in global vegetable oil and energy markets is expected to support prices, but ample palm oil supplies and near-term profit-taking could cap further gains, AmInvestment Bank says in a note. It expects CPO futures to find support at 4,782 ringgit a ton and face resistance at 4,835 ringgit a ton. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for January delivery is 12 ringgit higher at 4,829 ringgit a ton. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
2220 ET - Copper is higher in early Asian trading. Prices are supported by tightening supply, as the world's largest copper producer Chile faces its lowest output in 23 years, ANZ research analysts say in a commentary. Chile's finance minister expects copper output to fall 7% this year, with only a minor recovery projected for 2027. Operational issues are also increasing, with at least seven worker fatalities at Chilean mines over the past month, they add. The three-month LME copper contract is 0.2% higher at $14,448.00 a ton. (tracy.qu@wsj.com)
2034 ET - Gold declines in early Asian trade. The precious metal is likely to remain weighed down by higher crude oil prices keeping inflationary pressures in place and reinforcing hawkish monetary-policy expectations, says Bas Kooijman of DHF Capital S.A. in a note. Investors are likely to watch October's Federal Reserve meeting for hints on the U.S. interest rate outlook, he says. "Although the Fed is widely expected to leave rates steady, attention will likely remain on clues regarding another possible increase in December," he adds. A higher interest-rate environment typically drags down the non-interest-yielding yellow metal. Spot gold is down 0.2% at $4,117.90 an ounce.(megan.cheah@wsj.com)
1836 ET - The current strength of U.S. steel spreads are cementing Jefferies's bullish stance toward BlueScope Steel. Jefferies expects Bluescope to achieve 1H Ebit of A$960 million. That's at the top end of BlueScope's A$860 million-A$960 million guidance. "We see further upgrade risk for 2H27 given spot of US$890/ton and consensus assuming US$650/ton," analyst Ramoun Lazar says. Jefferies has penciled in US$700/ton for 2H. "Bluescope remains attractive on 8% FY27 free cash flow yield, supporting more than A$1 billion shareholder returns per annum," Jefferies adds. It retains a buy call and A$40.00/share price target. BlueScope ended Tuesday at A$32.83. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)
1557 ET - Oil futures settle lower in a volatile session as the market remains jittery about possible escalation of conflict in the Middle East. WTI for November delivery expires at $101.79 a barrel, down 1.8% on the day, while the most-active December contract falls 0.7% to $97.82 a barrel. December Brent crude settles down 0.7% at $108.79 a barrel. The market will likely pay close attention to U.S. inventory data due Wednesday following the previous week's 8.6 million barrel crude stock draw when production was affected by Hurricane Isaias. Analysts in a WSJ survey expect a 300,000 barrel decline in crude inventories for last week, while gasoline stocks are seen unchanged and diesel stocks down 1.3 million barrels.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1545 ET - Lean hog futures settled up 0.8% to 69.225 cents a pound. That makes it three out of the past four trading sessions that hogs have finished higher, seemingly snapping an overall downward slide that's swallowed up hog prices since early September, according to data from FactSet. But there's still problems in the hog complex that can pressure prices. "Pork packer margins have been under pressure recently and that is not good news for cash hog values and consequently the CME Index," says Steiner Consulting in a note. Live cattle futures settled the day up 1% to $2.302 a pound. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1523 ET - U.S. natural gas futures settle lower, testing $3 support on a mild weather outlook. The market "appears almost entirely focused on mild temperature forecasts that are now stretching into next month per the reliable 6-14 day views," Ritterbusch & Associates says in a note. Not much weather premium seems to be embedded in the December and forward gas contracts, and with the storage surplus small enough that it could be erased by a colder than normal November, "we can envision a sharp upside price reversal on the first sniff of renewed below-normal temps," the firm adds. Nymex natural gas for November delivery settles down 3.1% at $2.9630/mmBtu.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1422 ET - Foreign job seeker interest has fallen to 3% of all clicks in September from almost 8% in July 2023, coinciding with federal efforts to reign in temporary immigration, analysis by Indeed finds. U.S. job seekers represented only 21% of foreign clicks in 3Q compared with 28% in 4Q 2024, it adds. At the same time the occupations seeing the steepest drops in foreign interest, particularly engineering, are also the ones where postings are climbing, Indeed adds. At their peak foreign job seekers accounted for about one-fifth of clicks in several engineering, tech and agriculture-related sectors, but three years later foreign clicks are down in every sector, it says.
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