Why Akeso Bears Were Right Before The Drop

Simply Wall St.10-28

Akeso just told the market that ivonescimab plus chemotherapy beat durvalumab in a Phase III biliary tract cancer trial and earned approval in China for first line squamous lung cancer, capping a year...

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Holding Akeso over the past year would have meant a 29.1% loss, including dividends. If you had bought in a year ago on those bispecific ambitions, how should you now think about what comes next for ivonescimab and cadonilimab...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"LU0348827113.USD":"ALLIANZ RCM CHINA \"AT\" ACC","BK1161":"生物科技","LU0417516738.SGD":"Allianz Hong Kong Equity AT Acc SGD","LU0348735423.USD":"ALLIANZ HONG KONG EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0540923850.HKD":"ALLIANZ HONG KONG EQUITY \"A\" (HKD) INC","KURE":"KraneShares MSCI All China Health Care Index ETF","LU1720050803.USD":"安联全方位中国股票基金","BK1574":"生物医药B类股","IE00B543WZ88.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0634319403.HKD":"ALLIANZ HONG KONG EQUITY \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU1961090484.USD":"ALLIANZ ALL CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0417516902.SGD":"Allianz China Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","LU2488822045.USD":"ALLIANZ CHINA HEALTHY LIVING \"AT\" (USD) ACC","LU0348783233.USD":"安联东方收入型 CI A Dis美元","LU2476274308.USD":"ALLIANZ CHINA FUTURE TECHNOLOGIES \"AT\" (USD) ACC","LU0348825331.USD":"ALLIANZ CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","09926":"康方生物","LU0348784397.USD":"ALLIANZ ORIENTAL INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1794554557.SGD":"Allianz All China Equity AT Acc H2-SGD","LU2778985437.USD":"ALLIANZ CHINA FUTURE TECHNOLOGIES \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00B5MMRT66.SGD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0561508036.HKD":"ALLIANZ CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (HKD) INC","LU2476274720.SGD":"ALLIANZ CHINA FUTURE TECHNOLOGIES \"AT\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0348766576.USD":"ALLIANZ LITTLE DRAGONS \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0417516571.SGD":"Allianz Oriental Income Cl AT Acc SGD","LU2399975544.HKD":"ALLIANZ ALL CHINA EQUITY \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU0348767384.USD":"ALLIANZLITTLE DRAGONS \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BPRC5H50.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC"},"translate_title":"为什么阿克索熊在下跌之前是对的","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"09926":0.9,"KURE":0.6},"content_text":"Akeso just told the market that ivonescimab plus chemotherapy beat durvalumab in a Phase III biliary tract cancer trial and earned approval in China for first line squamous lung cancer, capping a year packed with late stage oncology data and fresh ADC programs. Holding Akeso over the past year would have meant a 29.1% loss, including dividends. If you had bought in a year ago on those bispecific ambitions, how should you now think about what comes next for ivonescimab and cadonilimab approvals and NRDL pricing pressure? The useful thing about a Narrative is that the reasoning is checkable: the assumptions sit beside the argument, and together they imply an estimated Fair Value you can disagree with. Akeso is not the only name tied to this theme. Zero in on 123 healthcare AI stocks and compare how each one is priced. AdvertisementThe Two Akeso Stories Investors Were Arguing About The shares cost HK$116 at the start of the period, and every Akeso holder had to choose which story felt more convincing. On the optimistic side, the Cadonilimab And Ivonescimab Trials Will Broaden Market Access view put Fair Value at HK$169, 47% above the start price. That thesis leaned on bispecifics, NRDL coverage and an assumption that revenue growth could reach 59.0% with profit margins at 40.8% in three years. The opposing Aggressive Pricing In China Will Compress Margins Despite Clinical Promise story set Fair Value at HK$88.38, 24% below the start price. That camp focused on deep NRDL price cuts and the risk that heavier government cost controls would pressure revenue and margins even if the drugs kept winning approvals. SEHK:9926 1-Year Stock Price Chart What The Results Changed For The Akeso Debate Akeso reported H1 2026 revenue of CNY1,805.681 million and a smaller net loss of CNY424.22 million, with net margin improving from -40.4% to -23.5%. That shift supported the optimistic story on top line expansion while still leaving the high margin assumptions unproven. Deep NRDL price cuts in earlier years and ongoing losses kept the cautious pricing thesis alive, so the evidence pointed in both directions. The lesson is simple. When a high growth drug developer relies on margin expansion, it is important to check whether reported net losses are actually shrinking and whether net margin is moving toward, rather than away from, the profit levels used in the forecast. What Akeso’s Drop Has Left You Paying For Today Akeso trades at HK$80.85 today, after a 29.1% loss over the past year, and the selected Narrative’s Fair Value sits above that market price. The Narrative leans on Akeso’s broad late stage oncology and autoimmune pipeline and recent approvals. For that higher figure to be reached, a buyer today would need to believe multiple programs convert into sustained commercial uptake across several indications. \"The main requirement for Akeso is to convert its broad late stage oncology and autoimmune pipeline, including multiple Phase III programs and recent product approvals, into durable commercial uptake across several cancer and immune disease indications.\" That disagreement has a full argument behind it. → Uncover the higher Fair Value this Narrative argues for Where Akeso’s Theme Reappears Akeso focuses on complex diseases that demand long treatment arcs and persistence. Weight loss and diabetes drugs follow similar chronic patterns, extending therapy timelines significantly. Patients who remain on treatment for years strain production, pricing and distribution systems. Another large drug maker is leaning into this shift with metabolic therapies that change obesity and diabetes management. It sells injectables for blood sugar control and weight loss, plus a pill for injection-averse patients, leaving chronic metabolic care on a very different demand curve. That argument has a Narrative and a number behind it. → See the company one Narrative values 15% above its price This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n        and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n        financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n        Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n        Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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