The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0612 ET - Palm oil prices ended lower amid continued concerns over elevated Malaysian inventories and expectations for strong October production, despite improving export demand, says David Ng, a trader at Kuala Lumpur-based Iceberg X. Ng expects CPO futures to find support around 4,650 ringgit a ton and face resistance at 4,850 ringgit a ton, with traders closely monitoring soybean oil and crude oil prices for further direction, he adds. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for January delivery ended 87 ringgit lower at 4,702 ringgit a ton. (jiahui.huang@wsj.com; @ivy_jiahuihuang)
0450 ET - Gold prices hover around $4,000 a troy ounce as investors await the Federal Reserve's meeting for more cues on the direction of interest rates. In early European trading, futures in New York fall 0.7% to $4,008.30 a troy ounce. "Bullion remains under pressure following last week's decline, reflecting elevated Treasury yields and expectations that U.S. interest rates could remain restrictive," says Naeem Aslam from Zaye Capital Markets. The U.S. dollar index--which measures the greenback against a basket of other currencies--is up 0.2% to 102.15, making dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for overseas buyers. Markets also await Personal Consumption Expenditures figures, the central bank's preferred inflation gauge, due on Thursday. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0048 ET - The Malaysian plantation sector's 3Q earnings are expected to improve sequentially, supported by a seasonal production recovery and broadly stable palm product prices, says Hong Leong IB analyst Chye Wen Fei in a note. Higher output and prices are also expected to support upstream earnings, partly offset by higher fertilizer costs and continued pressure on refining margins, she says. Tighter palm oil supplies, stronger Indonesian biodiesel demand and potential El Nino-related production losses could support prices into 2027. Hong Leong maintains an overweight rating on Malaysia's plantation sector, and pegs Hap Seng Plantations and IOI Corp. as its top picks. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
2330 ET - China's recycled lithium supply is tracking ahead of Morgan Stanley's expectations for this year. It is becoming "an increasingly material supply source," MS says. The bank says Mysteel estimates Chinese recycled carbonate of 89,400 metric tons for the first nine months of the year, up 47% on year. SMM estimates a higher 107,000 tons, up 79% on year, reflecting different methodologies, MS says. Those figures imply annual output of roughly 119,000 tons-143,000 tons, 9%-31% higher than MS's 2026 global recycled supply forecast of 109,000 tons. China accounts for roughly 90% of the recycling market. Its recycled supply could account for as much as 7% of global lithium supply this year, MS says. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)
2251 ET - Palm oil falls in Asian trading, weighed by softer palm olein prices on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, AmInvestment Bank says in a note. Concerns over rising Malaysian palm oil inventories and higher production are also putting pressure on prices, it says. Stronger export demand may partly cushion declines, the bank adds. Malaysia's palm oil exports for Oct. 1-25 are estimated to have risen 74% from the same period last month, according to cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for January delivery is down 77 ringgit at 4,712 ringgit a ton.(yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
2234 ET - Copper prices rise in Asian trade, with the three-month LME copper contract up 0.2% at $14,354.00 a ton. Prices are supported by tight mine supply and declining Chinese inventories, although expectations of higher interest rates and rising LME stocks continue to weigh on the market, Changjiang Futures analysts write in a note. Disruptions at Chilean mines have heightened supply concerns. Falling Chinese inventories are supporting prices amid improving downstream restocking demand, Changjiang adds. (jiahui.huang@wsj.com; @ivy_jiahuihuang)
2229 ET - Iron ore falls in early Asian trade amid higher supply. However, the fundamentals of iron ore could improve in 4Q as both overseas and China's steel demand recover, say Galaxy Futures analysts in a note. ANZ Research analysts note that Brazil's iron ore exports recorded strong growth in the first two weeks of October, lifting arrivals at China's 47 major ports. As October comes to an end, these positive signs could solidify a floor for iron ore prices, Galaxy Futures analysts say. The most actively traded January iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange is down 1.3% at CNY661.5 a ton. (sherry.qin@wsj.com)
2106 ET - Perseus Mining's three operating mines will need to produce a combined average of 101,000 oz of gold per quarter for the rest of FY27 to meet the midpoint of guidance, Citi says, and reckons that is feasible. "With maintenance out of the way, we see this as achievable, supported by mill run-times recovering, higher grade at the Yaouré open pit and Edikan (Nkosuo), and CMA Underground picking up," Citi says. Nyanzaga, due for first gold in January, will add roughly 55,000 oz. Perseus's 1Q output of 92,551 oz is 7% below consensus. Yet the low end of guidance only needs Perseus to produce about 91,000 oz per quarter, says Citi. It has a buy-high risk rating and target price of 7.90 Australian dollars on the stock, which is down 4.3% at A$5.35. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)
2035 ET - Gold edges lower in Asian trade. While markets broadly expect the Federal Reserve to leave rates unchanged at its October meeting, another increase later this year remains a live risk, says OCBC Group Research's Christopher Wong in a note. A higher interest-rate environment typically weighs on the nonyielding yellow metal. Gold likely needs some combination of easing oil prices, softer inflation and lower dollar and bond yields to regain more durable momentum, the strategist adds. Spot gold slips 0.1% to $4,010.94 a troy ounce. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)
1619 ET - Livestock futures end the session mixed with live cattle near flat at $2.312 a pound and lean hogs down 1.4% to 64.675 cents a pound. Friday's cold storage report was "friendly for cattle and bearish for hogs," Chris Lehner of ADM Investor Services says in a note. "Once again there is more pork in storage than a year ago. Even with the lower slaughter in 2026, more pork in storage shows why pork and hog prices have been dropping."(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1555 ET - Oil futures settle lower with the market eyeing efforts at Middle East diplomacy while remaining cautious about the possibility of escalation after the U.S. midterm elections. "Considering the limited odds of the U.S. striking Iran before the midterm elections on Nov. 3 versus a much greater chance after the elections, I find it rather odd that the backwardation continues to expand despite the fact the [Brent] December contract expires on Friday before the election," Mizuho's Robert Yawger says in a note. The January contract will be at the front of the curve "through what could be a very active month of November." December Brent settles down 0.8% at $115.81 a barrel, and the January contract falls 0.9% to $110.74. WTI falls 1.5% to $101.76 a barrel.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1535 ET - U.S. natural gas futures recover much of their early losses that followed further warning in near-term weather outlooks at the weekend, but still settle lower on the day. Friday's commitment of traders reported showed an increase in net-short positions, but driven entirely by a drop in long positions, Eli Rubin of EBW Analytics says in a note. "While fundamentals remain weak, any short profit-taking or stabilization together with a technically oversold natural gas market may lay the groundwork for a relief rally," he adds. Nymex natural gas for November delivery settles down 1.4% at $2.602/mmBtu after falling briefly below $2.50.
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