Shake Shack (SHAK) is well positioned to meet consensus estimates through 2027, supported by its established growth strategy and expense discipline, Oppenheimer said Monday in a report.
Oppenheimer expects Q3 same-store sales growth of 1.5%, matching the consensus estimate. It also expects Shake Shack to maintain its 2026 guidance for low-single-digit same-store sales growth and EBITDA at the lower end of its $225 million to $235 million range.
Consensus forecasts for 2.3% same-store sales growth in 2027 represent an attainable base-case scenario, the report said. A key investor debate ahead of Q3 centers on whether the company can sustain same-store sales growth and achieve 2027 EBITDA expectations, Oppenheimer said.
Oppenheimer said the company could update its long-term EBITDA growth outlook at an industry conference in January, compared with Wall Street expectations for 16% growth from 2027 through 2029.
Oppenheimer said risk to consensus estimates through 2027 is unusually low, while limited exposure to lower-income consumers provides a buffer against macroeconomic concerns affecting the industry.
Q3 results are due Nov. 5.
Oppenheimer maintained its outperform rating on Shake Shack stock with a price target of $82.
Price: 64.65, Change: -0.51, Percent Change: -0.78
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