The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1200 ET - The recent crypto selloff from the Binance breach may be the last major opportunity for investors to accumulate bitcoin under the $80,000 mark before the next bull market takes hold, ZX Squared Capital's CK Zheng says in a note. Zheng has been predicting that bitcoin could rise to $150,000 next year. Exchange hacks have historically only had a short-term impact on bitcoin prices, driven by traders' psychological reactions rather than any deterioration in bitcoin's underlying fundamentals, he says. "I believe this latest selloff represents the final capitulation phase of the 2026 crypto bear market," Zheng says. (dean.seal@wsj.com)
1154 ET - The U.S. Treasury could increase short-term borrowing and reduce longer-term issuance when it announces its refunding plans next week, Kelley & Mullis Wealth Management's Michael Mullis says. While some analysts expect the change to happen next year, Mullis says it could come sooner. "The short end is where the safety is right now." He sees demand for the short end secured by money market funds and reserve backing required for stablecoins, while long-end appetite dwindles. Mullis keeps 34% of his $500 million portfolio on cash and Treasurys maturing in less than a year, and 15% in gold, as he expects the long-end to remain volatile amid sticky inflation. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
1129 ET - Bitget CEO Gracy Chen, responding to news of the $6.3 billion Binance hack, is calling for faster coordination between exchanges, issuers, blockchain security firms and law enforcement to crack down on crypto cyber attacks. "When an attack happens, those relationships need to work in minutes, not days," Chen says in a note. The industry's biggest challenge is the speed at which stolen assets can move across different networks, she says. Some funds can be frozen, but others can be converted into assets that can't be frozen, Chen says. (dean.seal@wsj.com)
1121 ET - Bitget CEO Gracy Chen says she knows just how difficult the initial response period is for Binance as it reckons with the fallout of a $6.3 billion hack. Bitget dealt with its own headline-making security breach last month, in which hackers stole roughly $388 million. The crypto exchange's priority was to contain the incident, protect users and communicate openly about what had happened, Chen says in a note. Bitget covered the financial impact with its Protection Fund and user balances weren't affected, she says. "Right now, the focus should be on supporting Binance's recovery efforts and protecting its users," Chen says. (dean.seal@wsj.com)
1117 ET - A new New York Fed study examines new measures of labor market tightness from social platform LinkedIn and finds some outperformed a traditional gauge using JOLTS data. The labor market is considered tight if there are few job seekers available relative to job openings, which could result in wage pressures. The researchers found that LinkedIn's Jobs per Jobseeker Index and the LinkedIn Hiring Rate measure track existing labor-market yardsticks well and offer results comparable to or better than existing measures. "Crucially, these measures are also timelier than the JOLTS hires rate and traditional measures of tightness," the researchers say. (jessica.coacci@wsj.com)
1059 ET - The biggest risk from Binance's $6.3 billion hack is a confidence shock to centralized crypto infrastructure, Bitget Wallet's Lacie Zhang says in a note. Prolonged withdrawal restrictions or doubts about exchanges' reserves could cause lenders and market makers to retreat, draining liquidity across platforms, Zhang says. Any depegging of stablecoins or deterioration of market depth would show that the contagion is spreading, she says. The initial reaction from bitcoin has been more contained than during previous cyber incidents, but long-term confidence will depend on restored withdrawals, independently verified reserves and transparent accountability, Zhang says. (dean.seal@wsj.com)
1039 ET - Risks of the U.K. interest rates staying higher for longer than markets previously expected are rising as the energy supply disruption persists, Deutsche Bank's Maui Brennan and Sanjay Raja say in a note. The BOE is widely expected to increase interest rates next week, and markets price in three more BOE interest rate rises by July 2027, LSEG data show, due to inflation fears. "Much will depend on the duration of the unfolding energy shock and how it propagates through the economy - including any signs of second-round effects," they say. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
1033 ET - The U.K. economy remains resilient and inflation is ticking higher, cementing the argument for the Bank of England to increase interest rates next week, MFS Investment Management's Peter Goves says in a note. The most recent data released earlier this month showed U.K. annual GDP expanded by 2.1% in August, stronger than the 1.6% consensus forecast by economists in a WSJ survey. Annual headline inflation climbed to 3.5% in September. Markets price in a 99.7% chance of a BOE rate increase on November 5, LSEG data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
1028 ET - Norges Bank is likely to keep its policy rate unchanged at 4.5% next week, but the December meeting remains in play, Handelsbanken's Norway chief economist Marius Gonsholt Hov writes. While core inflation has been marginally stronger than the central bank expected, international policy rate expectations have declined since September. At the same time, the Norwegian krone has been significantly stronger than expected, which also points towards a somewhat lower rate path. Markets see roughly a 50-50 chance of a rate hike in December, while a rise by the March meeting is almost fully priced. "Although our official forecast assumes that Norges Bank has already reached the peak of its hiking cycle, market pricing clearly illustrates that risks are skewed to the upside." (dominic.chopping@wsj.com)
1023 ET - The knock-on effects stemming from the suspected hack at Binance, the world's largest crypto exchange, could be significant for digital assets, says Nick Forster, founder of crypto options exchange Derive.xyz. "Traders may pull back, investors de-risk and activity across the market could slow." Options are already reflecting this with bitcoin volatility rising modestly and ethereum volatility jumping, he says. In the short term, such hacks drag on confidence in crypto and onchain finance, he says. In the longer term, AI-powered security tools should make these systems much harder to exploit and hacks increasingly rare, he says. Bitcoin falls 2.8% to $76,648, LSEG data show. Ethereum drops 2.1% to $2,213. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
1017 ET - Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said that with high inflation, solid demand, and relatively low unemployment, the Fed's direction of travel is straightforward; the question is how quickly they should move. "I think the question...is pace," Barkin said in an interview with SiriusXM. "I think a gradual approach is a good way to go, and we'll see what we learn over the next period of time," he said. In the Fed's policy statement this month, they wrote "the accumulation of more information will help the Committee determine the policy stance appropriate to ensure a timely return of inflation to the Committee's 2 percent goal." (jessica.coacci@wsj.com)
1008 ET - There isn't evidence yet that the attackers used artificial intelligence in the Binance hack, but cybersecurity experts warn that AI is making these kinds of large-scale intrusions more common. AI is helping attackers find and exploit weaknesses faster than companies can fix them, The Hashgraph Group's Stefan Deiss says in a note. Cyber threats are becoming more sophisticated and widespread alongside the rise of AI, Absolute Security's Andy Ward says in a note. It's only a matter of time before a larger hack with greater financial fallout makes headlines, Ward says.
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