You Can Expect the Stock Market to Rally no Matter Who Wins on Election Day

Dow Jones10-31 01:32

Also in Weekend Reads: Dividend stocks, a way to jump on the Anthropic bandwagon ahead of its IPO, and advice from The Moneyist

Historical patterns following midterm elections suggest good times ahead for the U.S. stock market.

With many highflying technology stocks tumbling, you might be wondering what's in store for the stock market heading into Tuesday's midterm elections, especially given uncertainty about inflation and interest rates.

MarketWatch's Joseph Adinolfi explained why you can expect the stock market to rally no matter who wins on Election Day.

Then again: A bigger-than-expected win for Democrats in the midterms could deliver 'short-lived weakness' for stocks, strategists say

More Election Day coverage:

-- The midterms are crucial to the future of Social Security - no matter how old you are

-- The 5 big voting issues in the midterm elections that will impact your wallet

-- Gen Z voters told us the midterms boil down to affording life, as social causes take a back seat

-- The cost of money itself is on the ballot as voters struggle with pricey car loans, mortgages and credit-card debt

Dividend stocks come to the fore

Through noon on Friday, the iShares Core High Dividend exchange-traded fund HDV was up 11% for October, while the S&P 500 SPX was down 0.7% for the month.

Christine Idzelis explained why investors have been pivoting toward stocks with attractive dividend yields.

A related stock screen: Looking for income? These dividend stocks have high yields that seem well supported.

Bond-market jitters heading into next week

The Federal Reserve decided to stand pat this week, keeping its target for the federal-funds interest rate in a range of 3.75% to 4%.

But a high reading for consumer-price inflation on Thursday underscored the notion that a rate increase may be in store for December.

Meanwhile, the Treasury Department is set to release its quarterly funding plan on Wednesday. Joy Wiltermuth and Greg Robb outlined what the Treasury might do to mitigate upward pressure on long-term bond yields.

How to invest in Anthropic, even before its IPO is priced

This week, artificial-intelligence company Anthropic filed for its initial public offering. Investors are still waiting to find out when the IPO will be priced and when the shares will be listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange COMP.

But Christine Idzelis explained how you can already invest in Anthropic's privately held shares, along with approaches you can take to juice the bet following the IPO.

Related: CoreWeave and other AI stocks rise as Anthropic restores the market's faith in sustained spending

A common mistake for investors to avoid

Don't Short Yourself is MarketWatch's weekly newsletter offering smart tips to help you earn and grow your money.

If you select an investment and it soars, when should you sell? This week in the Don't Short Yourself newsletter, Genna Contino laid out three questions you should answer before selling a stock.

As AI falters, be careful chasing other sectors

October was a difficult month for companies involved with the AI build-out, with large stock-price declines for Nvidia (NVDA), Alphabet (GOOGL) (GOOG), Meta Platforms (META) and Intel (INTC). Meanwhile, as of noon on Friday, the healthcare sector XX:SP500.35 of the S&P 500 was up more than 10% for October.

Here are two warnings for traders who wish to jump aboard following the strongest 100-day run for U.S. healthcare stocks since 2001.

Healthcare coverage from Jaimy Lee:

-- The big winners of the tech wreck are biopharma stocks

-- Lilly raised sales guidance for third time this year as Zepbound sales soar. Its stock closed at a record high.

-- The excitement around Moderna's cancer vaccine is cooling. Here's why.

Pushing back against the anti-data-center crowd

Heading into the midterm elections, some politicians have changed with the times to take a stand - at least temporarily - against the construction of data centers. But one state is laying out the welcome mat for AI-related construction, and our Claudia Assis looked into it.

Three years into a peculiar U.S. job market

This type of sign may be rare where you live, despite the low unemployment rate.

The official U.S. unemployment rate remains low at 4.2%, but it can still be very difficult to find a job. For a deeply reported look at this phenomenon, Jeffry Bartash, Jillian Berman and Greg Robb spoke with job seekers and staffing professionals and considered the economic and political factors behind the low-hire, low-fire U.S. employment market.

Mistakes to avoid when you retire with a 401(k)

Beth Pinsker writes the Fix My Portfolio column. This week, she detailed a set of mistakes that retirees with 401(k) or other tax-deferred retirement accounts often make. These mistakes can lead to a combination of lower Social Security benefits and higher tax bills for retirees or their heirs.

Advice from The Moneyist

Quentin Fottrell is The Moneyist.

Quentin Fottrell - The Moneyist - answers MarketWatch readers' questions about their finances, which are often tied to family conflicts. Here are some from this week:

-- 'She's living the dream': My stepmother said I can buy my childhood home for $850,000. Is she taking advantage of me?

-- My abusive ex-husband promised $20,000 for our kids' education. Now he refuses to pay. Is he legally obligated?

-- My father has Alzheimer's and his caregiver is using his debit card for DoorDash. Is this suspicious?

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