The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1503 ET - A V-shaped rebound in grains is unlikely unless China comes to the U.S. market for grain in bulk, AgResource says in a note. Still, it's difficult to be bearish corn under $4.50 a bushel, wheat under $6 and soybeans under $12.30 unless favorable Brazilian weather is confirmed in November-December, the firm says. Brazilian forecasts will be in focus starting next week, and while there are no problems with Argentine soil moisture or pace of corn and soy planting, there is a significant risk of a lingering El Niño negatively affecting rainfall in key soybean producing regions of Brazil, AgResource adds. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1424 ET - The soybean and corn harvests could be interrupted as more rain is expected this weekend and early next week across much of the Midwest, Mike Castle of StoneX says in a note. Systems are already moving across much of Texas/Oklahoma and northern Missouri into Iowa/Illinois, "likely knocking combines back out of the field and slowing the tail-end of harvest," he says. The soybean harvest has caught up in recent weeks, in some areas at the expense of corn, he says. "It will be interesting to keep an eye on the impact seen in the cash markets given the combination of delayed harvest and sharply lower prices reducing farmers' incentive to sell across the scale." Corn is off 0.7% on CBOT and soybeans are near flat. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1415 ET - U.S. operators continue to add oil rigs as the conflict drags on in the Middle East, keeping crude prices high. Oil rigs increased by two last week to 462, and were up by 48 from a year ago, Baker Hughes reports. With increased anticipation of oil prices staying high, "there's just a lot more interest in exploration," says Andrejka Bernatova, CEO of Dynamix Corporation III, an energy-focused SPAC. "There's a sort of realization that you cannot rely on Russia and the Middle East at this point," she says. There is more focus on the U.S. and a lot of interest in places like Venezuela and Argentina, she adds. Natural gas rigs slipped by two this week to 130, or five more than a year ago. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1409 ET - Precious metals futures fall as conflicts in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine push oil prices higher, fueling concerns about inflation and higher interest rates. Front-month gold falls 3.3% in New York to $3,885.70 a troy ounce, its lowest close since Oct. 3, 2025. Silver falls 5.9% to $49.097 a troy ounce, its lowest since Nov. 7 of last year. The selloff could be "partly emanating from the crypto hack, which is triggering a flight to cash and putting additional selling pressure on the metals," Peter Cardillo of Spartan Capital says in a note. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1241 ET - Gold and silver futures accelerate losses as rising oil prices raise inflation concerns with implications of higher interest rates. "Expectations of tighter monetary policy continue to weigh on the non-yielding asset," Bas Kooijman of DHF Capital says ina note. "Firmer oil prices are compounding the pressure by sharpening concerns over persistent inflation." A pullback in oil prices could ease pressure on gold, while further supply disruption or a stronger-than-expected U.S. October jobs report "would likely reinforce the case for tighter policy and keep bullion under pressure." Gold for December delivery is down 3% in New York at $3,909.20 a troy ounce. Silver slides 5.9% to $49.285 a troy ounce. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1202 ET - Grains are slightly lower with traders focused on finding a price level that will stimulate demand and help rally the markets, says Brian Hoops of Midwest Market Solutions. Wheat in particular tried to rally on news that China had inquired about U.S. wheat, "but an inquiry and a purchase are different things and no purchases have been announced." If China does buy wheat, it should lift both wheat and corn "as it would be an indication that demand will improve at current price levels."Wheat is off 0.3% on CBOT and corn is down 0.7%.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1133 ET - The USDA reports two new flash sales of soybeans for the 2026/27 marketing year, one for 165,150 metric tons and another for 132,000 tons, both to unknown destinations. Soybean export sales have had a strong start to the 2026/27 marketing year, but "strong harvest reports and a good start to the South American growing season have kept managed funds in liquidation mode," Doug Bergman of RCM Alternatives says in a note. Soybeans are up 0.1% on CBOT but on track for weekly and monthly losses.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0904 ET - The mild weather outlook for the first half of November is keeping downward pressure on U.S. natural gas futures, with the December contract retreating further from the $3 level. "The oversized injection report yesterday, combined with inconsistent LNG feed gas data, sent the market tumbling yesterday and has December still trying to find its footing at the top of the gas board this morning," Tradition Energy's Gary Cunningham says in a note. The weather is providing little if any support, he says. "We are still in a very bearish trough with some slight support down around $2.85." Nymex gas for December delivery is off 2.5% at $2.878/mmBtu.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0901 ET - Oil futures are higher in a jittery market ahead of next week's U.S. midterm elections. Attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, Houthi strikes on Saudi targets and a resumption of Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries are driving the rise, Peter Cardillo of Spartan Capital says in a note. "The present situation is looking bleaker than ever, potentially putting additional pressure on President Trump to take action," he says. "The escalating tensions could push oil prices, even if only briefly, to new yearly highs." WTI is up 2.2% at $104.23 a barrel and Brent is 2.1% higher at $117.33 a barrel. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0602 ET - Palm oil prices ended higher on stronger crude oil prices, which improved the outlook for biodiesel demand. However, concerns over elevated Malaysian inventories continued to limit gains, says David Ng, a trader at Kuala Lumpur-based Iceberg X. Ng expects CPO futures to find support around 4,600 ringgit a ton and face resistance at 4,800 ringgit a ton, with traders closely monitoring crude oil prices, soybean oil movements and fresh exports estimates for further directions, he adds. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for January delivery ended 66 ringgit higher at 4,682 ringgit a ton. (jiahui.huang@wsj.com; @ivy_jiahuihuang)
0423 ET - Gold prices slide below the $4,000-a-troy-ounce mark as higher oil prices and sticky inflation fuel expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again later this year. New York futures are down 1% to $3,993.10 an ounce. The U.S. central bank left the door open for future rate hikes if inflation pressures persist, while the latest U.S. data showed the PCE index--the Fed's preferred inflation gauge--rose last month. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders are pricing in a 74% chance of a rate hike in December. Meanwhile, a tech-stock selloff raised the risk of investors offloading the metal to cover losses. "Heading into the weekend, traders will watch whether the U.S. technology sector selloff extends into today's session, potentially triggering broader deleveraging and liquidity-driven selling across markets, including precious metals," Saxo analysts say. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0047 ET - Lithium miners are pressing ahead with expansions even as prices retreat. Outside of China, there's a feeling that "this is a short-term, sentiment-led dip that is not supported by fundamentals," says Benchmark's Adam Megginson. "The direction of travel right now is definitely toward supply expansion." For now, only the highest-cost suppliers--like those selling so-called direct shipping ore that is minimally processed and costly to transport--risk needing to cut back, he says. But he says others could face increased pressure if the price drop continues. Lithium carbonate is down by more than 20% since early September at $15,450 a metric ton, according to Benchmark. Spodumene concentrate is down by nearly 40% over the same period at $1,385 a ton.
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