Below are the most important global events likely to affect FX and bond markets in the week starting Nov. 2.
The U.S. midterm elections will likely take center stage in the week, while the latest monthly U.S. jobs data could give clues on how soon the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates again.
The Bank of England is expected to raise interest rates, while rate decisions are also due in Sweden, Norway, Brazil and Mexico.
In Asia, central bank decisions in Australia and Malaysia will take center stage, with the Reserve Bank of Australia widely expected to raise interest rates for a fifth time this year. Bank Negara Malaysia is expected to hold rates steady.
U.S.
The U.S. midterm elections are due on Tuesday. The results of these will be closely watched by investors as Democrats are expected to perform well, with potential consequences for policy going forward. Democrats are widely expected to secure control of the House, while there's a possibility that the party also takes control of the Senate.
"A Democratic sweep...could be seen as slightly negative for the U.S. dollar from a few angles, from higher risk of government shutdown and gridlock on debt ceiling negotiations to potential damage to already shaky AI-related sentiment," ING foreign exchange strategist Francesco Pesole said in a note.
U.S. jobs data will also be in focus, particularly the latest nonfarm payrolls report for October, due on Friday, as investors gauge the likely timing and pace of future interest-rate rises based on evidence regarding the strength of the U.S. economy.
The Federal Reserve left interest rates on hold at its recent meeting but most analysts expect rates will rise in December. U.S. money markets price a 76% probability of a quarter-point rate hike on Dec. 9 and fully price at least two increases within the next 12 months, LSEG data showed. Job creation might have to be particularly weak for investors to meaningfully change these expectations.
"We expect sluggish employment growth and a stable unemployment rate," analysts at LBBW said in a note. Despite this, a 25-basis-point interest-rate hike by the Fed on Dec. 9 "is still considered very likely," they said.
Ahead of Friday's jobs data, further indications on the health of the U.S. jobs market will come with U.S. JOLTS job opening figures for September on Tuesday, ADP private payrolls data for October on Wednesday and weekly jobless claims Thursday.
The ISM surveys for October on manufacturing on Monday and services on Wednesday, followed by the University of Michigan's preliminary November consumer sentiment survey on Friday, will provide a more up-to-date picture of how the U.S. economy is faring.
Canada
Canadian jobs data for October are due Friday. These will give a picture of the health of Canada's economy after the Bank of Canada recently raised interest rates by 25 basis points.
Money markets price a 55% chance of a back-to-back increase in December, LSEG data showed.
Nick Rees, head of macro research at Monex, expects that underlying inflation is too soft and the labor market too weak to justify another hike, he said in a note.
Latin America
Brazil's central bank will announce its policy decision on Wednesday in the wake of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's surprise election victory.
"We expect Banco Central do Brasil to pause at its meeting on November 4 to gauge the inflation impact of the market sell-off triggered by Brazil's presidential election," Standard Chartered economist Dan Pan said in a note.
If sharp depreciation of the Brazilian real is sustained, it will likely raise near-term inflation pressure, the analyst said. The loose fiscal stance expected during Lula's fourth term might lead to a further increase in long-term inflation expectations, Pan said. Nevertheless, there is unlikely to be a sharp enough fiscal deterioration to push BCB back to raising rates, the analyst added.
Mexico's central bank, or Banxico, announces a rate decision on Thursday, and is expected to leave its key rate at 6.50%.
"Since the September meeting, the case for additional easing has weakened. Recent activity indicators suggest a faster closing of the output gap, the currency depreciated, while core inflation has recently re-accelerated," Citi analysts said in a note.
Eurozone
Eurozone provisional inflation data for October due on Wednesday will be the most closely-watched eurozone indicator of the week. This comes after the European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged at its October meeting, with money markets pricing a 63% probability of a quarter-point rate hike in December, LSEG data showed.
Investec forecasts that eurozone headline annual inflation will rise to 3.9% and reach 4.0% by the end of the year. LBBW analysts expect it will have hit 4.0% already in October.
The inflation data will be an important indicator for the ECB, Investec economist Ryan Djajasaputra said in a note. ECB President Christine Lagarde said the central bank had debated a hike in October and it is therefore likely gearing up towards more tightening in December, he said.
Final October manufacturing purchasing managers' surveys for France, Germany and the eurozone will be released Monday, followed by the equivalent surveys for services activity on Wednesday.
German September manufacturing orders are released Thursday, alongside French September industrial production figures and eurozone PPI inflation, also for September.
Eurozone September retail sales and German September industrial production data are due Friday.
U.K.
The main event in the week will be the Bank of England interest rate decision on Thursday, where markets widely expect the central bank to increase interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.0%.
"[The BOE] will deliver a required tightening that had already become clear at the prior meeting," Allan Monks, a senior economist at J.P. Morgan, said in a note.
Nonetheless, analysts expect the BOE to push back against current market expectations for more than four rate hikes over the coming 12 months, given that there is little evidence of second-order inflation effects yet.
"There is a high bar for the BOE to deliver tightening in line with market pricing," BNP Paribas economist Dani Stoilova said in a note.
The final U.K. manufacturing purchasing managers' index data for October will be released Monday, followed by the final services purchasing managers' figures on Wednesday.
Scandinavia
Sweden's central bank, the Riksbank, will announce a policy decision on Wednesday. Markets price an 87% chance of a 25 basis points rate increase to 1.75%, LSEG data showed.
The central bank left rates on hold last month but signaled it could raise rates later this year.
The Riksbank faces an improved growth outlook, Bank of America analysts said in a note. With data doing little to challenge the Riksbank's indication of future tightening, "we continue to expect a hike...and another one in the first quarter of 2027," they said.
Norway's Norges Bank will announce an interest-rate decision on Thursday.
At its last meeting in September, Norway's central bank raised rates by 25 basis points. It is likely to leave its policy rate unchanged at 4.50% on Thursday and signal that rates will remain elevated for some time, Nomura analysts said in a note.
"Although underlying inflation remains too high, we expect it to slow in the coming months." The current policy rate is restrictive, putting dampening pressure on inflation, they said.
Central and Eastern Europe
The National Bank of Poland announces a policy decision on Wednesday. Headline inflation has been running above the central bank's target in recent months but there is little evidence of broader price pressures building, affording the NBP time to respond, ING analysts said in a note.
"Our baseline scenario assumes that NBP rates would remain unchanged through the end of this year." Two rate rises in the first quarter of 2027 are possible if the energy price shock continues and inflation remains elevated, they said.
The Czech National Bank's policy decision is on Thursday, with markets pricing an 84% chance that the central bank will raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.0%, LSEG data showed.
Headline and core inflation have exceeded the central bank's forecasts, while accelerating wages and higher energy and food prices point to further price pressures, ING analysts said in a note.
"The combination of persistent inflation pressures and robust consumption should keep further monetary tightening on the agenda, with the December and February meetings potentially in play depending on incoming inflation data."
Japan
Japan's monetary policy outlook will remain in focus in the week, with investors looking for clues on the Bank of Japan's next interest-rate increase after the central bank held rates steady at 1.25% in its October meeting, while signaling that further tightening remains possible.
On Thursday, the Bank of Japan is scheduled to release the minutes of its September meeting, at which it raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 1.25% to keep persistent inflation in check.
The Ministry of Finance is slated to auction 10-year government bonds Thursday, testing investor demand as markets assess the prospect of higher borrowing costs.
Japanese markets will be closed Tuesday for the Culture Day holiday.
China
A quiet data week is in store for China, with PMIs the primary indicator of note.
On Monday and Wednesday, private gauges of China's manufacturing and services sector activity are due. The RatingDog PMIs compiled by S&P Global, which survey more export-oriented businesses, are likely to keep outperforming official counterparts.
The PMIs are closely watched as forward-looking indicators of economic performance, capturing sentiment among businesses and demand trends. A robust reading would underscore views that the world's second-largest economy remains resilient despite headwinds from trade frictions and the energy shock.
Foreign-exchange reserves figures from the central bank will also be in focus.
Australia
The week ahead in Australia will be dominated by the Reserve Bank of Australia, which holds its policy meeting Monday and Tuesday.
The overwhelming consensus is for the central bank to raise interest rates for a fifth time this year while keeping the door open to further tightening.
The RBA is battling persistent inflation despite aggressively raising interest rates this year, and is increasingly concerned that expectations of higher inflation could become entrenched. Economists say they aren't ruling out another rate increase in December or February, given the RBA's hawkish rhetoric in recent months.
To prevent inflation expectations from rising further, the central bank may opt for more short-term economic pain to curb demand and bring inflation back to target. With interest rates already at their highest level in 15 years and house prices falling at the fastest pace in decades, another rate increase could further weigh on already weak consumer confidence in the final months of the year.
RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser, who has recently been outspoken about the risks of higher inflation, is scheduled to speak Thursday. His comments could offer clues about the outlook for the December policy meeting.
Asia PMIs
A slew of monthly manufacturing PMI readings for Asia are due on Monday, including Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Southeast Asia. The surveys will be closely watched as cost pressures and higher rates could weigh on business confidence and operating conditions.
Flash PMI data showed that business activity is diverging across different markets as geopolitical and macroeconomic conditions affect the private sector and inflation to various extents.
South Korea
South Korea is scheduled to release its October trade data Sunday, Nov. 1, and inflation figures Tuesday, Nov. 3. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expect export growth to have accelerated, while consumer inflation likely eased slightly.
The median forecast from a WSJ poll of 11 economists is for an 86.7% increase in exports from a year earlier, compared with a revised 83.7% rise in September. Imports are projected to have risen 38.1%, resulting in a $38.28 billion trade surplus in October, compared with the previous month's revised $49.97 billion surplus, the poll showed.
"Strong export momentum has continued, supported by more working days than in October last year and sustained strength in semiconductor exports," said iM Securities chief economist Park Sang-hyun.
The median forecast from a separate WSJ poll of nine economists is for consumer prices to have risen 2.8% from a year earlier, slowing from September's 2.9% increase. On a monthly basis, prices likely edged up 0.2% in October after rising 0.3% in September, the poll showed.
Mild weather following the Chuseok holiday likely helped stabilize agricultural prices, while a stronger won may have eased upward pressure on import prices, Meritz Securities chief economist Seunghoon Stephen Lee said.
Hong Kong
Hong Kong is set to release advance third-quarter GDP figures and September retail sales data Tuesday. The city's economy has shown resilience this year, expanding 4.3% from a year earlier in the second quarter.
Citi expects third-quarter GDP growth of 3.5% from a year earlier, supported by AI-related merchandise trade and stronger investment. However, modest consumption growth could lead to a slight contraction of 0.3% from the previous quarter, its economists said.
Southeast Asia
Inflation will be in focus across Southeast Asia during the week, with rising energy and food prices expected to push up consumer prices in the region.
In the Philippines, headline inflation likely accelerated to 8.4% in October from 7.2% in September, according to ANZ Research. Crude-oil prices reached a six-month high by the end of October, likely keeping domestic fuel prices elevated.
Thailand's headline inflation is also expected to rise sharply, with Barclays forecasting a 3.5% increase in October, up from 2.82% in September, driven by higher energy and food prices. The Bank of Thailand expects inflation to continue rising into early 2027 due to higher energy costs and the effects of El Nino.
Indonesia's October inflation is expected to edge up to 3.4% from 3.3% in September, driven largely by higher food prices, ANZ said. Meanwhile, Indonesia's September trade surplus likely narrowed as rising crude-oil prices pushed up import costs, according to Barclays.
The nation's growth print for the third quarter is expected to ease to 5.2% from 5.3% in the previous quarter as weaker consumer spending weighed on activity, partly offset by government support for lower-income households, according to DBS.
Malaysia
Bank Negara Malaysia is expected to keep its overnight policy rate unchanged at 2.75% at its November meeting, although the risk of a 25-basis-point hike remains, Citi analysts said.
Stronger-than-expected third quarter growth, rising producer prices and wage pressures, alongside Budget 2027 measures, could prompt an earlier rate increase, they say. Citi now expects a 25 basis point hike in January 2027, but a stronger signal at the November meeting remains possible as inflation risks persist.
Taiwan
Taiwan is due to release its October inflation data on Thursday. The island's consumer prices likely remained elevated, with economists' estimates ranging from 2.3% to 2.7% growth. Higher global energy costs fed into higher electricity prices, and airfare prices and services inflation remained sticky, DBS economists said.
The odds for Taiwan's central bank to deliver its first interest rate hike in December after standing pat for 10 consecutive quarters are rising. Goldman Sachs economists expect it to deliver three consecutive quarterly rate increases of 12.5 basis points each starting in December. The economists expect this tightening cycle to be short, however, given prospects of a brief Fed tightening cycle followed by a potential resumption of rate cuts in the second half of 2027.
Any references to days are in local times.
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