$11 Billion in Bitcoin Options Expire Tomorrow—Here's What It Means

Decrypt10-29 17:15

In brief About $11 billion in Bitcoin options, roughly 135,000 BTC and a third of Deribit's Bitcoin options open interest, expire on Friday. Max pain, the price where option sellers pay out the least,...

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Click to make your pr...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"decrypt.co","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"CBOO":"Calamos Bitcoin Structured Alt Protection ETF - October","CBXY":"Calamos Bitcoin 90 Series Structured Alt Protection ETF - July","CBOJ":"Calamos Bitcoin Structured Alt Protection ETF - January","BTCC":"Grayscale Bitcoin HIGH Income ETF","CBOY":"Calamos Bitcoin Structured Alt Protection ETF - July","BITO":"比特币期货ETF-ProShares","BETH":"比特币&以太币期货ETF-ProShares","CBTO":"Calamos Bitcoin 80 Series Structured Alt Protection ETF - October","QBF":"Innovator Uncapped Bitcoin 20 Floor ETF - Quarterly","IBIT":"比特币ETF-iShares","HODL":"比特币ETF-VanEck","BETE":"等权重比特币&以太币期货ETF-ProShares","DFII":"FT Cboe Vest Bitcoin Strategy & Target Income ETF","CBTA":"Calamos Bitcoin 80 Series Structured Alt Protection ETF – April","BTF":"比特币&以太币期货ETF-CoinShares","BITU":"2倍做多比特币期货ETF-Proshares","MNRS":"GRAYSCALE BITCOIN MINERS ETF","SBIT":"2倍做空比特币期货ETF-Proshares","GBTC":"比特币ETF-Grayscale","BTC":"Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust","BRRR":"比特币ETF-CoinShares","BITY":"Amplify Bitcoin 2% Monthly Option Income ETF","BITI":"1倍做空比特币期货ETF-Proshares","DEFI":"比特币期货ETF-Hashdex","BFAP":"FT Vest Bitcoin Strategy Floor15 ETF - April","CBOA":"Calamos Bitcoin Structured Alt Protection ETF - April","CBTY":"Calamos Bitcoin 80 Series Structured Alt Protection ETF - July","YBTC":"比特币看涨期权ETF-Roundhill","XBTY":"GraniteShares YieldBOOST Bitcoin ETF","BFJL":"FT Vest Bitcoin Strategy Floor15 ETF - July","CBXJ":"Calamos Bitcoin 90 Series Structured Alt Protection ETF - January","MAXI":"比特币期货ETF-Simplify","BTRN":"比特币期货ETF-Global X","CBXO":"Calamos Bitcoin 90 Series Structured Alt Protection ETF - October","BTCZ":"T-Rex 2X Inverse Bitcoin Daily Target ETF","BITC":"Bitwise Trendwise Bitcoin and Treasuries Rotation Strategy ETF","FBTC":"比特币ETF-Fidelity","BTCL":"T-REX 2X LONG BITCOIN DAILY TARGET ETF","BITX":"2倍比特币期货ETF-Volatility Shares","BTCO":"比特币ETF-Invesco Galaxy","ARKB":"比特币ETF-21Shares","BAGY":"Amplify Bitcoin Max Income Covered Call ETF","BPI":"Grayscale Bitcoin Premium Income ETF","BTCW":"比特币ETF-Wisdom Tree","BITB":"比特币ETF-Bitwise","BCCC":"Global X Bitcoin Covered Call ETF","EZBC":"比特币ETF-Franklin","CBXA":"Calamos Bitcoin 90 Series Structured Alt Protection ETF – April"},"translate_title":"110 亿美元的比特币期权明天到期——这就是它的含义","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"BITY":0.6,"BITB":0.6,"BETH":0.6,"BTCC":0.6,"CBOO":0.6,"QBF":0.6,"BTCO":0.6,"BCCC":0.6,"BFJL":0.6,"BTCL":0.6,"IBIT":0.6,"CBXJ":0.6,"EZBC":0.6,"CBOY":0.6,"CBTA":0.6,"CBXO":0.6,"CBTY":0.6,"GBTC":0.6,"HODL":0.6,"BPI":0.6,"MAXI":0.6,"CBOA":0.6,"BITI":0.6,"YBTC":0.6,"BTF":0.6,"CBTO":0.6,"BITC":0.6,"BTC":0.6,"XBTY":0.6,"ARKB":0.6,"DEFI":0.6,"BETE":0.6,"BTCW":0.6,"BITU":0.6,"BRRR":0.6,"BITX":0.6,"BTCZ":0.6,"DFII":0.6,"MNRS":0.6,"CBXY":0.6,"SBIT":0.6,"BFAP":0.6,"CBOJ":0.6,"FBTC":0.6,"BTRN":0.6,"BAGY":0.6,"BITO":0.6,"CBXA":0.6},"content_text":"In brief\nAbout $11 billion in Bitcoin options, roughly 135,000 BTC and a third of Deribit's Bitcoin options open interest, expire on Friday.\nMax pain, the price where option sellers pay out the least, sits at $78,000 against a market price near $81,500, and about 86% of the contracts are out of the money.\nThe Fed held rates at 3.75% to 4% on Wednesday in a 10-2 vote with two dissenters favoring a hike, and the 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.05%.\nAbout $11 billion in Bitcoin options expire on Friday on Deribit, a crypto options exchange, with Bitcoin trading near $81,500 a day after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady while two of its officials voted to raise them.Even people who never touch options have a stake, because the traders who sold these contracts must buy or sell real Bitcoin to hedge as the price moves, which can add to swings without any news behind them.Myriad: Where does Bitcoin go next? Click to make your prediction.An option is a contract that gives its holder the right, but not the obligation, to buy (a call) or sell (a put) Bitcoin at a fixed price, called the strike, by a set date. Friday’s batch covers about 135,000 Bitcoin in contracts, roughly 88,700 calls and 46,500 puts, per Deribit’s data.That equals about a third of all Bitcoin options open on the exchange and roughly 70% more than the $6.4 billion that expired in August. The put-to-call ratio, which compares bets on a drop with bets on a rally, is 0.52, so calls outnumber puts nearly two to one, which means there’s optimism in terms of price going up.The $11 billion is notional value, the face value of the contracts at today’s price, not money changing hands. About 86% of the contracts are out of the money, meaning they would be worthless at current prices, and settling at today’s level would move roughly $130 million, about 1% of the headline figure.BitcoinBTC · USD$80,942−0.33%24H7D1M1YYTDOct 22Oct 24Oct 26Oct 27Oct 29$82.0k$81.2k$80.4k$79.6k24h HighHigh$81,77924h LowLow$79,636VolVol$1.3B→Buy Bitcoin with USDTPowered by Jupiter$50$100$500BuyPrice data by CoinGeckoCoinGeckoMore Bitcoin news and projections →Traders watch the Bitcoin options expiry day as one of the key events for their fundamental analysis. Another catalyst to consider is the Federal Reserve’s policy on rates. The Fed yesterday held firm at 3.75% to 4.00%, with expectations rising for another hike this year. Interest rates impact the whole economy as investment in risky assets and businesses would be less attractive than lending giving your money to the government through Treasuries.Traders also watch max pain, the price at which the most contracts expire worthless and sellers pay out the least. Deribit’s open interest puts it at $78,000, about $3,500 below the market, though it describes positioning and does not predict where Bitcoin will settle. After all, this is crypto, and wild movements are not a strange occurrence.The heaviest call bets sit at $95,000 and $100,000, about 16% and 23% above the current price, while the biggest put cluster is at $70,000, about 14% below. Friday’s expiry also saw the most trading of any Bitcoin options expiry on Deribit over the past 24 hours, with more than 6,000 contracts changing handsFriday’s batch is smaller than the $15 billion expiry in March, but about three times the $3.6 billion expiry from April 2021.The next test is December 25, when about 135,500 Bitcoin in options are already set to expire, roughly the same size as Friday’s and about two weeks after the Fed meets December 8-9.DisclaimerThe views and opinions expressed by the author are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, or other advice.Daily Debrief NewsletterStart every day with the top news stories right now, plus original features, a podcast, videos and more. 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