TradingKey - During the week of November 2 to 6 Eastern Time, the U.S. stock market will face the 2026 U.S. midterm elections and the October nonfarm payrolls report.
The Federal Reserve maintained the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.75% to 4.00% at its October meeting. However, two members dissented, favoring a 25-basis-point rate hike, reflecting ongoing divisions among officials over inflation risks. The upcoming employment and economic activity data will serve as an important basis for the market to judge the policy direction for December.
On the earnings front, Apple (AAPL), Palantir (PLTR), AMD (AMD), Qualcomm (QCOM), and Arm (ARM) among other major companies will report their earnings results in succession.
Major Events Preview
U.S. Midterm Elections: Control of the House and Senate in Focus
The U.S. will hold its 2026 midterm elections on Tuesday (November 3). The elections will decide all 435 voting seats in the House of Representatives and about one-third of the seats in the Senate.
Markets will focus on which party gains control of the House and the Senate, and whether Congress will be divided. The election results will impact the progress of tax and fiscal spending policies over the next two years and may alter the conditions for implementing regulatory policies in energy, healthcare, and technology.
If voting in key districts remains close or if specific races proceed to runoffs, the final seat distribution in both houses may not be determined on election night. Markets will subsequently assess the impact of the election results on fiscal policy, industry regulation, and government decision-making efficiency.
U.S. October Nonfarm Payrolls: Employment Data to Drive December Rate Expectations
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the October employment report on Friday (November 6) at 8:30 a.m. Markets will focus heavily on changes in nonfarm payrolls, the unemployment rate, the labor force participation rate, and average hourly earnings growth.
In its October meeting statement, the Federal Reserve noted that job gains were largely in line with the growth of the labor force and that the unemployment rate showed little change. The October jobs report will further indicate whether labor demand remains stable and whether wage growth continues to slow.
If nonfarm payrolls and average hourly earnings beat expectations while the unemployment rate remains stable, market expectations for higher rates for longer may heat up; if job growth slows and the unemployment rate rises, expectations for interest rate cuts could strengthen.
Apple Earnings: iPhone Sales and Services Growth in Focus
Apple will report its fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 financial results after the market close on Monday (November 2) and hold an earnings conference call at 5:00 p.m. Eastern Time.
The company previously projected fourth-quarter revenue to grow 9% to 11% year-over-year, with iPhone revenue growing by a mid-teens percentage, Services growth remaining roughly flat compared with the prior quarter, and gross margin expected to be between 47% and 48%.
Markets will focus on sales of the iPhone 18 Pro series, Services revenue, and changes in gross margin, while watching the impact of rising memory costs and product supply constraints, as well as the company's guidance for the first quarter of fiscal 2027.
AMD, Qualcomm, and Arm Earnings: AI Chips and Smartphone Demand Put to the Test
AMD will report its third-quarter fiscal 2026 financial results after the market close on Tuesday (November 3) and hold an earnings conference call at 5:00 p.m. Markets will focus on Data Center revenue, demand and shipments of Instinct AI accelerators, as well as the performance of its Client processors and Gaming segments.
Qualcomm will report its fourth-quarter and full-year fiscal 2026 financial results after the market close on Wednesday (November 4). Investors will be watching QCT handset, automotive, and IoT businesses, as well as QTL licensing revenue, while observing the company's progress in AI smartphones, AI PCs, and edge computing.
Arm will report its second-quarter fiscal 2027 financial results after the market close on the same day and hold an earnings conference call at 5:00 p.m. Markets will focus on licensing revenue, royalties, and the adoption of the Arm architecture in data centers, smartphones, and AI edge devices.
Core Schedule for the Week
Monday, November 2
Key Events: October ISM Manufacturing Index, Apple earnings, Palantir earnings
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will release the October Manufacturing PMI at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time. Sub-indexes for new orders, production, employment, and prices will reflect changes in U.S. manufacturing demand, production activity, and cost pressures.
On the earnings front, Apple and Palantir will report their fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter and third-quarter results after the market close. Palantir investors will need to focus on U.S. commercial and government revenue growth, total contract value, remaining performance obligations (RPO), customer adoption of its Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP), and full-year guidance.
Tuesday, November 3
Key Events: U.S. Midterm Elections, AMD earnings, Amgen earnings, Shopify earnings
The U.S. will hold its 2026 midterm elections. Control of the Senate and House of Representatives, along with its implications for fiscal and regulatory policy, will serve as the primary market variables for the day.
On the economic data front, the U.S. will release the September Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) and September factory orders at 10:00 a.m. Data on job openings, hires, and quits will reflect labor demand and workforce mobility.
On the earnings front, Shopify (SHOP) and Pfizer will report earnings before the market open. The market will focus on e-commerce gross merchandise volume and payment services for Shopify, and drug sales, cost controls, and full-year guidance for Pfizer.
After the bell, earnings will come from AMD, Arista Networks (ANET), Booking Holdings (BKNG), and Amgen (AMGN). In addition to AI chips and data center networking demand, performance in online travel bookings and biopharmaceuticals also merits attention.
Wednesday, November 4
Key Events: October ISM Services Index, Qualcomm earnings, Arm earnings, McDonald's earnings
The U.S. will release September international trade balance data at 8:30 a.m. and the October ISM Services PMI at 10:00 a.m. Sub-indexes for business activity, new orders, employment, and prices will reflect operating conditions, demand shifts, and cost pressures in the U.S. services sector.
Companies reporting earnings before the open include Uber (UBER), McDonald's (MCD), CVS Health (CVS), Novo Nordisk, and Datadog (DDOG). After the close, AppLovin (APP), Qualcomm, and Arm will report earnings.
Thursday, November 5
Key Events: U.S. Q3 Productivity, Cloudflare earnings, Lumentum earnings, Airbnb earnings
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release preliminary third-quarter nonfarm business sector productivity and unit labor costs at 8:30 a.m. This data helps assess corporate efficiency and wage cost trends, as a continuous rise in unit labor costs could add to inflationary pressure.
On the earnings front, ConocoPhillips (COP) will report third-quarter results before the open, with the market focusing on oil and gas production, costs, and capital expenditures.
Cloudflare (NET), Airbnb (ABNB), and Lumentum (LITE) will release earnings after the market close. Key focus areas for Cloudflare investors include large customer growth, commercialization progress of the Workers developer platform, and demand for AI-related products.
Previously, Bloomberg reported that Marvell Technology (MRVL) was in talks to acquire Lumentum, with a transaction potentially announced in early November. Investors will focus on Lumentum's AI optical communications business performance and the progress of acquisition talks.
Friday, November 6
Key Events: U.S. October Nonfarm Payrolls Report, Moderna earnings, Humana earnings
The U.S. will release the October nonfarm payrolls report at 8:30 a.m. Nonfarm payrolls, the unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings will reflect labor market conditions and influence market expectations for the Federal Reserve's December and subsequent rate policy.
On the earnings front, Moderna (MRNA) and Humana (HUM) will report third-quarter fiscal 2026 results. Investors can focus on Moderna's vaccine sales, R&D progress, and cash burn, as well as Humana's medical cost ratio, Medicare Advantage business performance, and full-year guidance.
Find out more
Comments