The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0909 ET - Crude futures are tumbling to start the week on hopes for U.S.-Iran peace talks. The pullback comes with "escalation longs" at a peak so close to the U.S. midterm elections, Scott Shelton of TP ICAP says in a note. But "there is nothing I see to suggest that this any different that previous peace attempts, and the size of the move is because positions have never been larger as people have their bets on for what is going to happen post U.S. midterms," he adds. "This next step is either escalation or Iran capitulating." WTI is down 6.2% at $97.62 and Brent is off 6.1% at $106.57 a barrel. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0617 ET - European stock indexes rise in late morning European trade, reversing losses at market open. Brent crude oil prices fall around 4.4% to $108.42 a barrel on hopes for diplomatic developments in the Middle East, buoying energy-intensive sectors. The continent-wide Stoxx 600 inches up 0.1% after opening in the red. Travel and leisure stocks are the leading sector, rising 1.9%. The French CAC 40 gains 0.4%, while the German DAX is up 0.3%. London's FTSE 100 edges 0.05% higher. Indexes in Italy and Spain rise, with the IBEX 35 up 1.1% as banks rally, while British Airways owner IAG adds 2.55%. The Dutch AEX is flat. (josephmichael.stonor@wsj.com)
0542 ET - Copper markets are showing signs of tightening supply, with inventories increasingly concentrated in the U.S., high Chinese physical premiums and mounting mine supply challenges, according to Morgan Stanley. About 80% of global visible inventories are now held in the U.S., leaving markets elsewhere increasingly tight. Meanwhile, in China, smelter maintenance and reduced scrap availability are supporting demand for refined copper despite softer end-use consumption. Morgan Stanley expects copper to average $14,800 a metric ton in the fourth quarter and $14,400 in the first quarter of 2027. However, the bank says it is more cautious over next year's full outlook, citing uncertainty around U.S. tariff policy, an expected return to growth in mine supply and the likelihood that U.S. imports will eventually slow. LME three-month copper futures are up 0.9% to $14,251 a metric ton. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0514 ET - Palm oil futures end lower, tracking weakness in crude prices. Weaker oil prices weigh on palm oil's appeal as a biodiesel feedstock. Sentiment also remains cautious amid expectations of rising October stockpiles and uncertainty around a potential Malaysian export tax waiver, say Kenanga Futures analysts in a note. They peg the support and resistance levels for the January futures contract at 4,630 ringgit and 4,750 ringgit, respectively. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for January delivery declines 31 ringgit to 4,650 ringgit a metric ton. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)
0353 ET - Gold futures tick higher, but hold below $4,000 a troy ounce after slumping last week. "Gold fell to its lowest level in a year at the end of last week as oil prices surged amid inflation concerns and expectations that interest rates could stay higher for longer [...], with the selloff in technology shares adding to pressure as investors reduced positions to cover losses elsewhere," analysts at ING say. New York futures are now up 0.3% to $3,911.40 an ounce, supported by falling oil prices and as traders assess the U.S. interest-rate outlook for this year. Meanwhile, silver rises 2.3% to $50.44 an ounce, while platinum is up 0.2% to $1,439.29 an ounce. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
2157 ET - Iron ore prices rise in early Asian trading, tracking gains across the ferrous complex, though fundamentals remain weak, Cofco Futures analysts say in a note. Supply remains ample, while steel mill losses have prompted production cuts, weighing on port shipments, they add. High port inventories and cautious restocking by mills are also limiting demand support, the analysts say. Prices are likely to remain under pressure, though faster-than-expected winter restocking or stronger cost support could push prices higher, they add. The most actively traded January iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange is 0.7% higher at 680.0 yuan a ton. (jiahui.huang@wsj.com; @ivy_jiahuihuang)
2146 ET - Palm oil falls in Asian trading on cautious sentiment, AmInvestment Bank says in a note. Technical analysis suggests crude palm oil futures are expected to trade with a slightly firmer to neutral bias, following positive technical developments at the end of last week. However, technical indicators suggest a cautious broader medium-term outlook, with bearish momentum persisting, it adds. AmInvestment Bank pegs resistance at 4,715 ringgit a ton and support at 4,643 ringgit a ton. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for January delivery is 5 ringgit lower at 4,676 ringgit a ton. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
2034 ET - Citi expects lithium prices to remain weak in the near term, underpinned by supply chain destocking. Prices have fallen by as much as 40% since early September--raising the key question of whether correction has run its course, Citi says. "Recent channel checks by our China Battery Materials team have not been encouraging," it says. Consumers are likely to defer purchases and maintain lean inventories, meaning risks are skewed to the downside until either supply is cut or downstream stockpiles are depleted, says the bank. It downgrades its 0-3 month price target for lithium carbonate to $12,000/metric ton from $20,000/ton. Its target for lithium hydroxide also falls to $12,000/ton, from $17,000/ton, while its target for spodumene concentrate drops to $1,200/ton from $2,000/ton. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)
2021 ET - Copper rises in Asian trade. Booming investment in data centers has been driving expectations of strong demand in the base metal, supporting prices in recent months, ANZ Research analysts say in a note. Signs of robust demand have also partly offset concerns around economic growth stemming from rising energy prices, they add. Ongoing supply tightness could also buoy copper. The three-month copper futures contract on the London Metal Exchange gains 0.45% to $14,218.00 a metric ton. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)
1927 ET - Gold rises in early Asian trade but remains below the key $4,000 level. Expectations of tighter monetary policy continue to weigh on the non-yielding asset, says Bas Kooijman of DHF Capital S.A. Inflation concerns and rate-hike expectations could ease if there is a pullback in oil prices or signs of easing regional tensions, which will support gold. However, further supply disruptions or a stronger-than-expected October employment report would likely reinforce the case for tighter policy and keep bullion under pressure, Kooijman adds. Spot gold is up 0.6% at $3,898.35 an ounce. (kimberley.kao@wsj.com)
1713 ET - Morgan Stanley remains cautious on iron ore, citing weaker Chinese steel demand and rising supply. Iron ore inventories at Chinese ports remain elevated, "which may mean less restocking would be needed for the remainder of the year," it says. Among Australian equities, its order of preference is BHP, Deterra, Rio Tinto and then Fortescue. "We continue to like BHP, with upcoming catalysts including the Copper SA visit," says MS. BHP ended Friday at A$57.56/share, up 4.6% for the week.
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