The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1213 ET - Friday's commitment of traders report shows managed funds have nearly liquidated their net long position in corn, while "still sitting on large bullish positions in beans and meal, with speculators now estimated to be underwater on much of it," Doug Bergman of RCM Alternatives says in a note. "Until more of that speculative length has been unwound, rallies are expected to struggle." Wheat is seeing a bid as funds have built up a large net short and a Russia/Ukraine grain deal remains elusive, he adds. Corn is off 0.1% on CBOT. Wheat is up 0.4% and soybeans are down 1.4%. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1141 ET - Gold futures extend their rebound as oil prices slide on renewed hopes for a diplomatic solution to the Middle East conflict. The drop in oil prices has allowed risk assets to bounce back, "which has clearly helped the precious metal too," Fawad Razaqzada of Forex.com says in a note. Precious metal investors are still concerned about the potential for further interest-rate increases, which is bearish for the metals, he adds. "With the $4,000 level having been taken out last week, the path of least resistance is to the downside for gold." Gold for December delivery is up 2.1% in New York at $3,979.30 a troy ounce, and silver is up 3.6% at $51.04 a troy ounce. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0954 ET - Strong export demand for U.S. soybeans has yet to prompt a meaningful bullish response from the market, since traders have largely factored in expectations following China's commitment to buy 920 million bushels--25 million metric tons--of U.S. soybeans, Joe Davis of Futures International says in a note. "The primary concern moving forward is whether the record-sized U.S. crop could ultimately outpace demand during the 2026-27 marketing year, particularly if demand projections are already approaching their limits." Assuming Brazil's crop avoids significant weather problems, maintaining the pace of U.S. exports could prove difficult into 2027, he adds. Soybeans are off 0.5% on CBOT. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0941 ET - Private exporters reported corn export sales of 1.73 million metric tons for delivery to Mexico, of which 1.14 million tons are for the 2026/27 marketing year and 594,360 tons for 2027/28, the USDA says. The USDA also announces 136,000 tons of soybeans for delivery to China in the 2026/27 marketing year. Corn futures are up 0.2% in early trading. Soybeans are down 0.4% and wheat is up 0.5%. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0937 ET - U.S. natural gas futures are higher in early trading after three straight weeks of declines. Futures are "correcting the oversold condition with profit-taking by fund shorts now seen as buyers," Dennis Kissler of BOK Financial says in a note. Near-term fundamentals remain negative with weather forecasts into mid-November mostly mild for most of the U.S., he adds. "Seasonally prices remain under pressure into the second week of November." Nymex natural gas is up 1.2% at $2.934/mmBtu.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0909 ET - Crude futures are tumbling to start the week on hopes for U.S.-Iran peace talks. The pullback comes with "escalation longs" at a peak so close to the U.S. midterm elections, Scott Shelton of TP ICAP says in a note. But "there is nothing I see to suggest that this any different that previous peace attempts, and the size of the move is because positions have never been larger as people have their bets on for what is going to happen post U.S. midterms," he adds. "This next step is either escalation or Iran capitulating." WTI is down 6.2% at $97.62 and Brent is off 6.1% at $106.57 a barrel. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0617 ET - European stock indexes rise in late morning European trade, reversing losses at market open. Brent crude oil prices fall around 4.4% to $108.42 a barrel on hopes for diplomatic developments in the Middle East, buoying energy-intensive sectors. The continent-wide Stoxx 600 inches up 0.1% after opening in the red. Travel and leisure stocks are the leading sector, rising 1.9%. The French CAC 40 gains 0.4%, while the German DAX is up 0.3%. London's FTSE 100 edges 0.05% higher. Indexes in Italy and Spain rise, with the IBEX 35 up 1.1% as banks rally, while British Airways owner IAG adds 2.55%. The Dutch AEX is flat. (josephmichael.stonor@wsj.com)
0542 ET - Copper markets are showing signs of tightening supply, with inventories increasingly concentrated in the U.S., high Chinese physical premiums and mounting mine supply challenges, according to Morgan Stanley. About 80% of global visible inventories are now held in the U.S., leaving markets elsewhere increasingly tight. Meanwhile, in China, smelter maintenance and reduced scrap availability are supporting demand for refined copper despite softer end-use consumption. Morgan Stanley expects copper to average $14,800 a metric ton in the fourth quarter and $14,400 in the first quarter of 2027. However, the bank says it is more cautious over next year's full outlook, citing uncertainty around U.S. tariff policy, an expected return to growth in mine supply and the likelihood that U.S. imports will eventually slow. LME three-month copper futures are up 0.9% to $14,251 a metric ton. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0514 ET - Palm oil futures end lower, tracking weakness in crude prices. Weaker oil prices weigh on palm oil's appeal as a biodiesel feedstock. Sentiment also remains cautious amid expectations of rising October stockpiles and uncertainty around a potential Malaysian export tax waiver, say Kenanga Futures analysts in a note. They peg the support and resistance levels for the January futures contract at 4,630 ringgit and 4,750 ringgit, respectively. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for January delivery declines 31 ringgit to 4,650 ringgit a metric ton. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)
0353 ET - Gold futures tick higher, but hold below $4,000 a troy ounce after slumping last week. "Gold fell to its lowest level in a year at the end of last week as oil prices surged amid inflation concerns and expectations that interest rates could stay higher for longer [...], with the selloff in technology shares adding to pressure as investors reduced positions to cover losses elsewhere," analysts at ING say. New York futures are now up 0.3% to $3,911.40 an ounce, supported by falling oil prices and as traders assess the U.S. interest-rate outlook for this year. Meanwhile, silver rises 2.3% to $50.44 an ounce, while platinum is up 0.2% to $1,439.29 an ounce. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
2157 ET - Iron ore prices rise in early Asian trading, tracking gains across the ferrous complex, though fundamentals remain weak, Cofco Futures analysts say in a note. Supply remains ample, while steel mill losses have prompted production cuts, weighing on port shipments, they add. High port inventories and cautious restocking by mills are also limiting demand support, the analysts say. Prices are likely to remain under pressure, though faster-than-expected winter restocking or stronger cost support could push prices higher, they add. The most actively traded January iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange is 0.7% higher at 680.0 yuan a ton. (jiahui.huang@wsj.com; @ivy_jiahuihuang)
2146 ET - Palm oil falls in Asian trading on cautious sentiment, AmInvestment Bank says in a note. Technical analysis suggests crude palm oil futures are expected to trade with a slightly firmer to neutral bias, following positive technical developments at the end of last week. However, technical indicators suggest a cautious broader medium-term outlook, with bearish momentum persisting, it adds. AmInvestment Bank pegs resistance at 4,715 ringgit a ton and support at 4,643 ringgit a ton. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for January delivery is 5 ringgit lower at 4,676 ringgit a ton.
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