New models can boost Rivian Automotive stock, regardless of what happens to U.S. electric-vehicle policy.
UBS analyst Joe Spak upgraded Rivian stock to Buy from Hold on Monday, keeping his price target at $17 a share.
Rivian stock rose 6% in early trading at $12.88 a share, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average were up 0.4% and 0.9%, respectively. That still leaves Rivian stock with roughly 30% upside to Spak's target price.
An upgrade with no change in the target price tells investors how things have been going. Coming into Monday trading, Rivian stock was down about 38% year to date. The loss of the $7,500 EV purchase tax credit in September 2025 made it harder to sell EVs and sapped investor enthusiasm for battery technology. Through September 2026, Americans bought about 726,000 all-electric cars, down 30% year over year.
However, car buyers have coalesced around pure-play EV companies. Rivian is selling more cars this year, while Tesla's U.S. U.S. sales haven't taken a big hit. U.S. EV sales at Ford Motor, on the other hand, have dropped by about 68% this year. Rivian's market share of U.S. EV sales in the third quarter was about 7%, up roughly four percentage points year over year.
The recent selloff is an opportunity for investors to pick up Rivian stock ahead of an "inflection," Spak says. Rivian recently started selling its lower-priced R2 vehicles, which will increase volume and improve gross profit margins.
"Additional coming [R2] variants should expand the addressable market across price points, range and performance, supporting demand beyond the initial first adopters and Tesla switchers," Spak added.
Wall Street projects 2028 vehicle sales of 207,000 units, up from 42,000 in 2025 and an expected 69,000 in 2026. Volumes in 2028 will be predominantly R2 vehicles.
Rivian is still relatively new and lacks the scale to be profitable. Building car plants is expensive, and car companies generally need to sell about 400,000 units to generate consistent profits. Wall Street sees Rivian turning profitable in 2030 when unit sales reach 375,000 cars.
With the upgrade, 56% of analysts covering the stock rate shares Buy, according to FactSet. The average Buy-rating ratio for S&P 500 stocks typically ranges from 55% to 60%. The average analyst price target for Rivian stock is almost $18.
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