The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1205 GMT - Bitcoin's ability to remain above $76,000 in the wake of the record hack at crypto exchange Binance suggests the incident hasn't triggered widespread capitulation, Zaye Capital Markets analyst Naeem Aslam says in a note. "More concerning is the weakening institutional demand." U.S. spot bitcoin exchange traded funds recorded about $643.3 million in net outflows on October 30, he says. Meanwhile, President Trump's comments about the importance of bitcoin to the U.S. financial system are positive but Tuesday's midterms introduce uncertainty over future crypto legislation and regulation, he says. Bitcoin rises 0.4% to $76,986 after reaching a six-week low of $76,197 Friday, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
1150 GMT - The Bank of England is likely to raise interest rates in a 7-2 vote on Thursday but sound cautious about future tightening, limiting any gains in sterling, Monex Europe analysts say in a note. The BOE could signal a pause in lifting rates in December, they say. Ahead of the decision there is little on the U.K. calendar, leaving sterling to take its cue from oil prices and the Middle East, they say. Any renewed fall in energy prices would "ease the inflation argument for further BOE hikes." Sterling trades flat at $1.3407 and Monex expects it to remain around this level before the decision but drift toward $1.33 thereafter. The euro falls 0.1% to 0.8335 pounds. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
1147 GMT - Qatar's consumer prices rose 0.52% in August from the previous month, driven partly by higher recreation and cultural expenses, according to the National Planning Council. Prices for recreation, sport and culture increased 7.06% on month, the largest gain among expenditure categories. Personal-care and miscellaneous services prices rose 0.85%, while restaurant and accommodation costs increased 0.47%. Transport prices declined 0.53% and clothing and footwear costs fell 2.26%, partially offsetting increases elsewhere. The figures reflect monthly changes under the council's updated consumer-price index methodology. (farhan.rafid@wsj.com)
1140 GMT - Qatar's industrial producer price index fell 2.77% in August from the previous month, weighed down by lower crude oil and natural-gas prices, according to the National Planning Council. Mining and quarrying producer prices declined 4.02%, including a 4.03% drop in crude petroleum and natural gas, while manufacturing prices rose 2.4%. Refined petroleum product prices jumped 14.3%, highlighting the divergence between energy extraction and downstream manufacturing. Mining and quarrying account for more than 82% of the overall index, making movements in that sector the main driver of the headline decline. (farhan.rafid@wsj.com)
1138 GMT - The cost of protecting Brazil's sovereign debt against default rises to the highest level in more than one year due to fiscal concerns following last month's presidential election victory by Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. The victory ends prospects of fiscal prudence in the country, BCA Research's Max Malakhveitchouk and Arthur Budaghyan say in a note. "Lula's fourth term will resemble his third: priority on social programs, workers' empowerment, welfare, and affordability." Brazil's five-year credit default swaps climb to 148 basis points, the highest since October 2025, S&P Global Market Intelligence data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
1055 GMT - The dollar turns higher as Treasury yields rise and oil prices rebound after sharp falls in the previous session. The U.S. struck Iran's Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, the WSJ reported, citing U.S. officials. The WSJ reported separately that America's Gulf allies are preparing for the possibility of a broader U.S. military campaign against Iran. Brent crude rises 1.1% to $105.89 per barrel after reaching a three-week low of $103.28 Monday, LSEG data show. Higher oil prices support the dollar as the U.S. is a net oil exporter. The DXY dollar index rises 0.1% to 101.816 after hitting a one-month low of 101.426 Monday but gains are limited amid investor caution ahead of Tuesday's midterm elections. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
1051 GMT - Gulf sovereign and bank bonds face selling pressure despite renewed expectations of diplomatic engagement between the U.S. and Iran, according to MUFG. The bank's credit-trading desk says exchange-traded funds and institutional investors were predominantly sellers Monday, with demand for longer-dated securities weakening. Spreads on Qatar's 2049 and 2050 sovereign bonds widen eight basis points, while Abu Dhabi sovereign spreads increase two to four basis points. Saudi government bond spreads remain broadly unchanged, outperforming regional peers. (farhan.rafid@wsj.com)
1048 GMT - The cost of protecting euro credit against default climbs due to increased investor caution ahead of the U.S. midterm elections. Concerns about rising oil prices and AI companies' excessive spending are also weighing on market sentiment, AJ Bell's Dan Coatsworth says in a note. "It has created the type of environment where the slightest bit of bad news rains on the market, soaking investors' ability to make positive returns," he says. The iTraxx Europe Crossover index of euro high-yield credit default swaps rises 2 basis points to last trade at 324bps, S&P Global Market Intelligence data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
1046 GMT - Growth in Saudi Arabia's non-oil private sector eases in October as new orders moderate and export demand remains weak, according to Riyad Bank's purchasing managers' index compiled by S&P Global. The headline index declines to 54.0 from 55.3 in September, remaining above the 50 threshold separating expansion from contraction. Business output grows at a faster pace, supported by domestic demand, but new export orders fall for an eighth consecutive month amid shipping disruptions and higher freight and insurance costs. Purchasing-price inflation reaches a six-month high, while selling-price inflation eases to a nine-month low. (farhan.rafid@wsj.com)
1024 GMT - Bitcoin's heavy ETF outflows last week following the $6.3 billion Binance hack don't paint the full picture of demand for the cryptocurrency, according to CK Zheng, crypto hedge fund manager at ZX Squared Capital. Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $643 million on Friday. But the firm estimates that spot bitcoin ETFs represent a small share of Bitcoin's total market capitalization of about 6%. "While October's ETF outflows are worth monitoring, they should not be interpreted as a definitive indicator of overall Bitcoin demand," Zheng says. "The broader market encompasses a much larger and more diverse investor base, including institutional holders, corporations, and global investors outside the ETF ecosystem." Bitcoin is 0.3% higher at $76,901. (joseph.wilkins@wsj.com)
1024 GMT - Large cloud computing service providers and AI infrastructure companies, commonly known as hyperscalers, are expected to be the main drivers of capital expenditure growth in 2027, UBS's Arend Kapteyn says in a note. There is little evidence of capital spending spreading beyond hyperscaler AI investment, Kapteyn says. "Our equity analysts expect the [hyperscaler companies] to drive around 80% of global capex growth next year." (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
1016 GMT - The Bank of England is set to raise its key interest rate this week partly for insurance purposes, ING economists say in a note. "We expect a 7-2 vote to hike rates this week and, barring a collapse in energy prices, we think a follow-up move in February is likely too," they say. It comes as U.K. inflation approaches 4%, an important line in the sand for the BOE who suggested last year that second-round effects could become more likely once inflation surpasses this level. "We suspect this is still front of mind for many officials," the economists say. That leaves the bank in a strange situation of hiking not because economic data is telling it to, but because of risks presented by sharply higher energy prices, they say.
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