In the first half of his second term, President Trump used blunt tools to bend the world to his will. He imposed high tariffs on imports that rewired global trade flows and launched two military campaigns, including an inconclusive conflict with Iran that sent energy prices rocketing.
The remade Democratic Congress will have limited power to rein him in on foreign policy, leaving global affairs as one of the main arenas where he can shape his legacy.
Trump has already acknowledged the role some of his policies played in the midterm results. In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, Trump said the Iran conflict had contributed to Republican losses. "Iran was a piece of it," he said, pointing to the high gas prices it caused as a political liability.
Nonetheless, he said he didn't regret launching the war. The question now is how the midterm results affect his decision on whether to restart strikes, as well as how he proceeds on a host of other global issues, such as trade and Ukraine.
Will Trump restart strikes in Iran?
In the run-up to the midterms, the U.S. warned Gulf countries to be prepared for a short, intense military campaign after the election.
In interviews after the vote, Trump seemed to play down an imminent strike, saying he had no plans for an immediate attack and would act in America's interest.
Vice President JD Vance on Wednesday blamed the war in Iran directly for the electoral defeat. "And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there," he posted on X.
The president holds exclusive command of the military. While Congress controls the purse strings for foreign wars, lawmakers are often reluctant to withhold funding for U.S. troops serving abroad, according to the Council on Foreign Relations.
Already, there are two U.S. aircraft-carrier groups and an amphibious assault-ship group in the Arabian Sea, with a third aircraft-carrier group on the way.
Should Trump decide to escalate, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei said his country would unleash a much broader response across the region, in remarks published by state media Wednesday.
Some officials in the Middle East said the Democratic triumph didn't lessen the likelihood of another round of war with Iran, possibly in the coming days.
"Trump will not be happy to be framed as defeated by the electoral base, by the Americans, and also defeated by the Iranians. This is something he cannot swallow. He cannot tolerate, and he would probably do something," said Nadim Koteich, an Emirati media and policy adviser. "This is more about his legacy than any strategic calculation."
Will Trump now set his sights on Cuba?
Regime change in Havana has been a priority for Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the son of Cuban migrants, but it is one that faded when the U.S. became embroiled in war with Iran.
Military and intervention plans for Cuba would require an extensive nation-building strategy to transform the armed forces and a moribund economy controlled by the ruling Communist Party.
Unlike Venezuela, which Trump has touted as his administration's most important foreign-policy triumph, Cuba has few natural resources. A huge reconstruction job would demand intense attention and suck up tens of billions of dollars in investment.
How will U.S. ties with Israel change?
Israel is currently one of the largest recipients of American military aid in the world.
Hours ahead of results, Trump said he was preparing to end that support in 2026 because the country no longer needed it. U.S. and Israeli officials have been discussing for months a potential phasing out of American military aid, but Trump's announcement of a timeline took Israeli officials by surprise.
Senate wins for candidates like Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan, who campaigned on ending unconditional aid to Israel, further sparked fears among Israelis about the future of the relationship with the U.S.
Still, current and former U.S. officials said that an abrupt end to U.S. military aid to Israel was unlikely because of funding already committed by Congress.
Will Trump shift his Ukraine policies?
In Kyiv, there was more hope than expectation of a change in the Trump administration's approach toward Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Trump has cut nearly all U.S. aid for Ukraine, pressured the country to hand more of its territory to Russia and lambasted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, blaming him for a war that Moscow started. In contrast, Trump has sought a rapprochement with Russian President Vladimir Putin, relaxed sanctions on Russian energy and tried to stop Ukrainian airstrikes on Russian oil refineries.
Congress can influence defense funding, including military aid to Ukraine, as well as sanctions laws, said Dmytro Sherengovsky, a political scientist at the Ukrainian Catholic University in Lviv, Ukraine. "However, a significant proportion of operational decisions regarding military aid and the implementation of sanctions will remain within the remit of the executive branch," he wrote on Facebook.
While the U.S. will likely be preoccupied with domestic issues for the next two years, Congressional hearings and investigations could reveal more about Russian influence in the U.S., said Valerii Pekar, an entrepreneur and lecturer at the Kyiv Mohyla Business School.
What does this mean for NATO and U.S. alliances?
Europe is already ramping up military spending and preparing for the U.S. to play a smaller role in the continent's security, after Trump questioned U.S. membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and threatened to seize Greenland, the territory of ally Denmark.
Berlin, in particular, has massively ramped up procurement. By early next year, some of the new equipment will start making its way to troops, according to German security officials.
At the same time, in the standoff with Trump over Greenland, some allies established a formula for handling the U.S. president. It involved both muscle-flexing and accommodation.
European countries deployed forces to the island and the European Union suspended ratification of its trade deal with Washington. But the allies also offered to set up a NATO mission in the Arctic and start talks between the U.S., Greenland and Denmark about the island's future.
"The U.S.'s role in Europe will get smaller and the threats against Europe are going to increase," said Giuseppe Spatafora, policy analyst for trans-Atlantic relations at the EU Institute for Security Studies, the EU's foreign-policy and security think tank. "That's why Europe needs to build up its capabilities and deterrence options while maintaining active cooperation with the U.S."
How will Trump approach China now?
Trump will likely emerge from the midterms in dealmaking mode and will want to cement his legacy over the next two years, facing friends and foes with risks and opportunities, said Jörn Fleck, senior director of the Europe Center at the Atlantic Council, a U.S.-based think tank.
U.S. allies in Asia worry that Trump will sideline their security and economic interests in pursuit of a deal with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, or North Korea's Kim Jong Un. Those concerns won't vanish along with Republican seats in Congress.
Trump is scheduled to visit China this month for an Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting in Shenzhen, after a summit in Washington with Xi in September. The flurry of diplomacy has cooled tensions between the two superpowers.
"Beijing's goal is to elongate this period of fragile calm in the relationship to gain time and space to build greater self-reliance," said Ryan Hass, a China expert at the Brookings Institution and former Obama administration official.
The Democratic sweep will push Chinese officials to look beyond Trump, said Wu Xinbo, director at Fudan University's Center for American Studies in Shanghai. Beijing will maintain an assertive posture with Washington, Wu said.
"We feel more confident," he added, and will continue to "play hardball to make sure we can remain in a relatively advantageous position."
What happens to Trump's tariffs?
Even shorn of a Republican majority in Congress, Trump is expected to keep pushing partners for more concessions on trade. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said he was prepared to sit out the next two years if needed and strike a deal with Trump's successor.
Few can afford to run the clock. Apart from China, most Asian nations have little bargaining power against the U.S. when it comes to trade. Allies such as Japan and South Korea are on the hook for hundreds of billions of dollars of investment in the U.S. as part of trade deals negotiated early in Trump's second term.
Japan is broadly sticking with its end of the bargain, but many projects are still on the drawing board. In January, Trump threatened to raise levies on South Korea because of a lack of progress implementing its side of the pact. And, in August he ordered an abrupt curtailment to joint U.S.-South Korea military drills.
Southeast Asia's export economies such as Vietnam and Thailand have been racing to complete trade deals with the U.S. in an effort to pre-empt new tariffs the Trump administration could pass. Others, including Indonesia, are taking their time ratifying new trade concessions.
Trump could also seek to reignite his trade battle with the EU. The two economies reached a trade deal last year but continuing U.S. trade investigations could lead to renewed upheaval. The U.S. has launched a probe into overcapacity by the EU and other economies and opened an investigation into Germany's pharmaceutical pricing. The German VDMA engineering lobby organization said it didn't expect the Democrats would wrest back control of trade policy.
"I think there's a serious risk that we will see more U.S. tariffs threats against the EU before the end of the year," said Laura von Daniels, senior fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.
And what about USMCA?
Trump has ripped up parts of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement that he signed in his first administration and mused about terminating the deal. But such a move would likely attract intense congressional scrutiny.
Talks with Mexico and Canada, the U.S.'s top trading partners, stalled amid objections from Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, according to people familiar with the negotiations. In the case of Mexico, Lutnick has opposed significant reductions in the 25% tariff on Mexican automobiles and the 50% levies on steel and aluminum.
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