Is AGNC Investment (AGNC) Undervalued Or Does Its Rich P S Ratio Tell The Story?

Simply Wall St.11-08

AGNC Investment: recent performance snapshot AGNC Investment (AGNC) has been trading around US$8.78, with the share price roughly flat over the past month and lower over the past 3 months and year to ...

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The recent 1-day share price decline of 0.45% and 90-day share price fall of 18.40% suggest momentum for AGNC Investment has been fading, even though the 3-year total shareholder return of 61.71% and 5-year total shareholder return of 10.89% point to a stronger longer term record. Scan how AGNC Investment compares and spot other income-focused plays with resilient balance sheets using the curated list of solid balance sheet and fundamentals (25 results) as a starting universe. Bulls point to AGNC Investment’s long run of positive total returns, while bears focus on the recent share price slide and current loss. Which side does the valuation math lean toward next? AdvertisementPreferred Price-to-Sales Multiple of 47.4x: Is it justified? AGNC Investment currently trades on a P/S ratio of 47.4x, which is far richer than both its Mortgage REIT industry group and closer peer set based on the data provided. The P/S metric compares the value the market assigns to the equity against its annual revenue. For a mortgage REIT such as AGNC Investment, this ratio can be influenced by how investors view the quality of its mortgage portfolio, expectations around funding costs, and the sustainability of its earnings and dividend profile rather than traditional operating margins. Here, the gap is wide. The broader US Mortgage REITs industry sits at 4.1x P/S, and the peer average is 9.5x, while an estimated fair P/S ratio for AGNC Investment is 7.9x. The current 47.4x level is several times higher than both the industry and that fair ratio estimate, which suggests the current pricing is materially richer than the regression-based fair value level. Explore the SWS fair ratio for AGNC Investment. Result: Price-to-Sales of 47.4x (OVERVALUED) Still, the current loss of US$76 million and reliance on distributing 90% of taxable income as a REIT could quickly challenge AGNC Investment if market conditions tighten. Find out about the key risks to this AGNC Investment narrative. Another view on AGNC Investment’s value The P/S work suggests AGNC Investment is expensive, yet the SWS DCF model points the other way. At $8.78, the share price sits about 29.8% below an estimated future cash flow value of $12.51, which raises a simple question: Is the market overpaying for sales or underpaying for cash generation? For a closer look at how this cash flow based approach is built, and how sensitive it can be to changing assumptions, Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value. AGNC Discounted Cash Flow as at Nov 2026Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out AGNC Investment for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 38 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity. Next Steps Mixed signals around AGNC Investment can easily pull you in opposite directions, so act quickly, test the assumptions against your own thresholds, then weigh both the 2 key rewards and 4 important warning signs. Looking for more AGNC Investment ideas and alternatives? AGNC Investment might be on your radar, but the real edge often comes from lining it up against a wider field of quality opportunities. Use the Simply Wall Street screener to pressure test your thinking and surface fresh ideas that match your risk, income, and value preferences.  Target potential mispricings by scanning a curated set of strong fundamentals with the 38 high quality undervalued stocks. Stack your income options by comparing AGNC Investment against a focused group of high yield candidates through the 7 dividend fortresses. Dial back portfolio stress by filtering for sturdier balance sheets and consistent financial profiles using the 31 resilient stocks with low risk scores.  This article is general in nature and was produced with the assistance of AI automation,\n        based on data and analysis from Simply Wall St. We provide commentary based on historical data\n        and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n        financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n        Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n        Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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