Heading into the 2022 midterm elections, the economy and inflation were voters' top concerns. Democrats paid the price: Their margin in the share of the national popular vote dropped 6 percentage points from the 2020 presidential election, and they lost control of the House of Representatives.
This year, the economy and inflation were once again the top issue. But President Trump's party paid a far steeper price. Republicans' vote margin plummeted 14 percentage points, and they were swept from power in both chambers.
These divergent outcomes tell us that while the economy was clearly critical, it wasn't the monolithic driver of the election that some narratives (and Democratic messaging) made it out to be. Much more was at work: Voters appear deeply dismayed about what has happened to their country under Trump, and inflation was a symptom of that.
Exit polls suggest clues as to what, in addition to the economy, was on their minds. The state of democracy was cited as the top issue by 32% of respondents, second only to the economy. Government corruption was crucial or a major factor in how 90% of respondents voted. Immigration raids and conservative civil-rights court rulings might have motivated Hispanic and Black voters.
Democracy, corruption, immigration and the cost of living don't occupy different compartments. They are intertwined in voters' minds, a pattern that appeared in previous elections in the U.S. and around the world.
Inflation is an incumbent killer, mowing down governing parties on the left and right since 2021. This isn't because inflation itself is destroying livelihoods, the way it did in Weimar Germany. Rather, combined with corruption, polarization or disorder, inflation can be symptomatic of failing governance.
2022 vs 2026
By the third quarter of 2022, inflation, fueled by Covid-19-era supply-chain disruptions and Joe Biden's stimulus, had rocketed to 8.3%. On the eve of the November midterms, gasoline, kicked higher by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, was up more than $1 a gallon from when Biden took office. The 30-year mortgage had more than doubled to around 7%.
Growth was solid and unemployment low, yet in exit polls 76% of respondents described the economy as "not so good" or "poor" and 79% said inflation had caused "severe or moderate" hardship.
Democrats' comeuppance was no surprise.
Compared to then, this year's economic backdrop isn't as bad. Inflation is about half what it was then, gasoline prices and mortgage rates are in the same vicinity. Growth is strong and unemployment low.
In exit polls, the mood is much the same: 75% of respondents said the economy was "not so good" or "poor," and 79% said inflation had caused severe or moderate hardship.
So why was the backlash so much more severe?
When asked about the economy, voters often think about the country as a whole, not just themselves. In 2024, Wall Street Journal polls found voters routinely rated their own state's economy as good but the country's as bad.
The surge in gasoline prices since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran at the end of February has without question sapped household spending power and darkened moods. Yet when Christoffer Hentzer Dausgaard, a political scientist at the University of Copenhagen, compared the county-level effect of gasoline prices on household incomes to Republican midterm performance, he found no correlation. This, he said, suggests that rising gasoline prices mattered more for voters' broader perceptions of the national economy than for their own pocketbooks.
In 2024, anxiety about the economy was compounded by discord over illegal immigration, pandemic precautions and the Israeli-Hamas conflict.
This time around, it appears the anxiety is coming from the way Trump has governed since taking office, which includes aggressively deploying federal power against his adversaries, the media and immigrants and circumventing the constraints of courts and Congress. Democrats rated democracy as more important than the economy, independents as second only to the economy. Around 90% of Republicans, Democrats and Independents rated corruption as crucial or important to their vote, although the exit poll didn't specify whose corruption.
This is an incomplete picture because the questions pollsters ask don't always capture what voters are feeling. What looks like a cost-of-living issue might be more: artificial intelligence and data centers don't just raise the cost of electricity, they also threaten jobs and safety. The conflict in Iran isn't just driving energy prices, it looks like another endless war, too.
Inflation-corruption link
Corruption by itself may not topple a government until the public connects it to everyday life.
Viktor Orbán over 20 years in power eroded the independence of Hungary's courts and media and rewrote the constitution and the electoral system to solidify his party's grip, all while rewarding cronies and punishing opponents.
His downfall this year came at the hands of a savvy opposition leader, Péter Magyar. His "Tisza Party exposed state corruption and relentlessly campaigned on pocketbook issues, including high inflation, the deterioration of public services, and the poor state of the country's infrastructure," Lorinc Redei, who teaches at the University of Texas at Austin's LBJ School of Public Affairs, wrote in Foreign Affairs earlier this year.
Democrats repeatedly sought to connect affordability to allegations that Trump and his family have benefited from industries and businesses that need government favors. No one pushed this more energetically than Sen. Jon Ossoff of Georgia, re-elected in a landslide Tuesday. At an August rally he declared, "Ground beef's up 20% since Trump took office. Coffee, 40%. Health premiums: through the roof. And remember, while you pay more for everything, the first family's wealth is growing by billions of dollars."
Trump's spokesmen have denied that transactions between industry and Trump's administration or family have created any conflict of interest.
Even Republicans worried that Trump's behavior was upsetting voters coping with costs. My colleagues reported how a Trump-aligned group heard comments from focus groups along the lines of:
Trump doesn't really care about what I'm going through.
It seems like he wants to put his name on everything.
American democratic institutions have held up better than Hungary's as Tuesday's resounding victory for the opposition party shows.
There's a cautionary lesson here for Democrats, though. Their victory was less a vindication of their ideological priorities than a mandate to make life affordable and governance honest and effective. If they fail at that, their majorities won't last.
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