Market Talks covering the impact of U.S. Politics and White House policies on companies and markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1557 ET - Oil futures fall for a third consecutive session as the Democrats win control of the U.S. Congress, raising hopes for a settlement to the Middle East conflict, while diplomatic efforts continue in the region. "We feel that a huge amount of geopolitical risk premium has been extracted from the oil market in just three sessions," Ritterbusch & Associates says in a note. Although that could provide a base for another strong advance if President Trump opts for another military campaign against Iran, "the midterm results have skewed odds heavily in favor of diplomacy." WTI settles down 8.3% at $88.12 a barrel and Brent falls 8.7% to $94.62 a barrel.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1545 ET - Treasury yields fall as the Democratic sweep stokes hopes of an end to the Iran war and oil prices plunge 8%. Vice-President J.D. Vance says on social media the war is to blame for the Republican loss, fueling bets on an imminent resolution. Meanwhile, the Treasury keeps auction sizes unchanged for the coming months while projecting continuing $6 billion buyback operations for long-term bonds. ADP reports higher-than-expected private-sector job creation in October, ahead of Friday's payrolls. The 10-year yield declines 0.060 percentage point to 4.891%, while the two-year falls 0.033 point to 4.579%. Both benchmarks settle at their lowest level in nearly two months. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
1501 ET - SpaceX's target for adding 10 gigawatts of data-center capacity next year looks far less achievable given the Democratic wave in Tuesday's midterms, particularly the election of Democrat Gina Hinojosa as Texas governor, Morgan Stanley analysts write in a note. They model 5.7 gigawatts of new capacity in 2027, with the company set to face headwinds from financing, chips, power, and local opposition. "After the results last night, we feel more convicted in our below consensus estimates" for data centers, they write. Still, SpaceX may not be in a worse position than peers, they say, and the company may be able to pivot to friendlier states. The results may also accelerate Elon Musk's push to put data centers in space, the analysts add. (elias.schisgall@wsj.com)
1401 ET - The combination of a Democrat wave in Congress and SpaceX successfully catching both the ship and booster in its upcoming Starship test flight could accelerate Elon Musk's plans to build AI data centers in space, Morgan Stanley analysts say in a note. "If SpaceX achieves a successful ship catch (Flight 15?) we anticipate a marked change in the market's appreciation for Space as a viable domain for SI infrastructure," they say. "Space is a celestial 'escape valve' for terrestrial NIMBYism." Musk himself on Tuesday night wrote on X "data centers in space looking pretty appealing right now." SpaceX is off 4.7%.(elias.schisgall@wsj.com)
1349 ET - Energy affordability featured heavily in the U.S. midterm elections, and energy may be one of the few areas where compromise between both parties remains possible, PwC says in a note. With control of both the House and the Senate, Democrats will be better able to set hearing agendas, issue subpoenas, and shape appropriations, which could pressure agencies and regulated sectors to focus more on clean energy, transmission, storage, grid modernization, and consumer cost protections, the firm says. "Both parties have an interest in prioritizing affordability and reliability even as they continue to differ on how to expand capacity and modernize the grid system." (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1243 ET - If a Democratic Congress delays or undoes cuts to SNAP and Medicaid in Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill Act, that could benefit consumer-facing sectors, according to Morgan Stanley. Analysts there currently model the law's cuts to SNAP and Medicaid as a 20 basis-point drag to real consumption growth next year. A targeted delay of the cuts under Democrats would suggest 10 basis points of upside to that projection, while a fuller set of delays and reversals could mean 40 basis points of upside, they estimate. "Potential delays in SNAP/Medicaid cuts provide a tailwind to consumer sectors & some upside risk to growth forecasts," the analysts write. Consumer stocks including Walmart, Dollar Tree, Dollar General, and Weis Markets are trading in the green. (elias.schisgall@wsj.com)
1224 ET - Precious metals futures are rebounding after the Democrats gain control of the U.S. Congress in midterm elections, sending oil prices skidding lower on market hopes for a Middle East settlement. "Markets are treating the result exactly as they often do after a big midterm shift: gridlock is good," Phil Flynn of the Price Futures Group says in a note. "With neither side able to ram through big new spending or regulatory surprises, the path is clearer for risk assets and for the metals complex that had been waiting for a catalyst." Gold was higher in the November following the election in eight of the last 13 midterms, with an average gain of 14%, Flynn says, but warns: "history is a guide, not a guarantee." Gold for December delivery is up 3.3% in New York at $4,072.30 a troy ounce. Silver gains 4.9% to $52.20 a troy ounce. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1138 ET - Canadian miners lead the gainers in Toronto after Democrats sweep U.S. Congress and the Senate. Gold and silver are both higher after U.S. midterm election results showed the Democratic Party taking control of both chambers. The price of gold is up 2.8% to $4,051 an ounce, while silver jumps 4.4% to $52 an ounce. Gold traded above $5,000 an ounce before the war in Iran began in February and dropped to current levels in late October as soaring energy costs raise expectations of further interest rate hikes. Among the top gainers of the session are G Mining Ventures, Torex Resources, Aya Gold & Silver and Equinox Gold, as well as major names in the sector such as Kinross, Barrick Mining and Lundin Gold.(adriano.marchese@wsj.com)
1127 ET - The Democrats' blue tidal wave to reclaim Congress will blunt the pace of the AI infrastructure buildout, Dan Ives says in a Yorkville Ives research note. The takeover of both chambers, especially the Senate, will create major hurdles for AI and tech legislation in Washington over the next two years, Ives says. Trump will probably veto any major AI safety or regulatory laws, but this will still force the tech industry to the negotiating table to create compromises with lawmakers, he says. The results in Texas are particularly worrying for AI bulls, where Democrat Gina Hinojosa, who is known to be against data centers, upset Greg Abbott in the governor's race, Ives says. (dean.seal@wsj.com)
1119 ET - The EU should remain vigilant about further trade volatility, the bloc's top trade official says at a European Parliament committee meeting in Brussels Wednesday following a Democratic surge in the U.S. midterm election results. Maros Sefcovic says he continues to be in regular contact with his counterparts in Washington and that there is a particular focus on goods caught under President Trump's steel derivatives tariffs, some of which still face levies of up to 50%. (edith.hancock@wsj.com)
1116 ET - The stock market has historically had a strong year after the U.S. midterm election cycle, LPL Financial's Jeff Buchbinder says in a research note. The S&P 500 has gained an average of about 15% over the 12 months following midterm Election Day, and each of those periods produced positive returns, the strategist says. Even the weakest of those outcomes was positives: after the 1986 midterms, the S&P 500 gained 1.1% in the 12 months that followed, even though that window included the October 1987 stock market crash, Buchbinder says. Top stock indices are broadly higher after Democrats retook Congress. (dean.seal@wsj.com)
1053 ET - European indexes jump across the continent after the Democrats' resounding win in U.S. midterm elections prompted a rally across global stocks. Banking, software and chemicals sectors are among those that rise sharply as the Stoxx Europe 600 rises 1.95%, on track for its best day since May. London's FTSE 100 is 1.9% higher. The German DAX jumps 2.5%--on track for its best day since April 2025 and closing in on a fresh high--with Deutsche Bank surging 6.35%, while Adidas jumps 4.8%. In Paris, the CAC 40 adds 2.3% to trade at highs not seen since early September. Italy's FTSE MIB jumps 2.5%, while the Spanish IBEX 35 gains 3.4%, with both indexes spurred higher by banks. The Dutch AEX gains 1.4%, even as ASML--Europe's most valuable company--falls 3.4%.
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