Why Roblox Bears Were Right Before A 51% Drop

Simply Wall St.11-10 17:25

If you had decided on 9 November 2025 to skip Roblox and wait for clearer evidence on user quality versus headline growth, the past year looked very different. Investors who held Roblox over the past ...

Source Link

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

We need your insight to fill this gap

Leave a comment

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2682360029?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","thumbnail":"https://simplywall.st/cdn-cgi/image/fit=cover,format=auto,width=320,height=240/https://images.simplywall.st/asset/industry/8043000-choice2-card/1788964187365","is_english":true,"pubTime":"2026-11-10 17:25","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2682360029","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"Why Roblox Bears Were Right Before A 51% Drop","media":"Simply Wall St.","content":"<div>\n<p>If you had decided on 9 November 2025 to skip Roblox and wait for clearer evidence on user quality versus headline growth, the past year looked very different. Investors who held Roblox over the past ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/media/nyse-rblx/roblox/news/why-roblox-bears-were-right-before-a-51-drop\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"simplywall_highlight","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Roblox Bears Were Right Before A 51% Drop</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Roblox Bears Were Right Before A 51% Drop\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-11-10 17:25 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/media/nyse-rblx/roblox/news/why-roblox-bears-were-right-before-a-51-drop><strong>Simply Wall St.</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>If you had decided on 9 November 2025 to skip Roblox and wait for clearer evidence on user quality versus headline growth, the past year looked very different. Investors who held Roblox over the past ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/media/nyse-rblx/roblox/news/why-roblox-bears-were-right-before-a-51-drop\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK4085","symbol_name":"互动家庭娱乐","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/media/nyse-rblx/roblox/news/why-roblox-bears-were-right-before-a-51-drop","article_id":"2682360029","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://simplywall.st/cdn-cgi/image/fit=cover,format=auto,width=320,height=240/https://images.simplywall.st/asset/industry/8043000-choice2-card/1788964187365"],"rights":{"source":"simplywall_highlight","url":"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/media/nyse-rblx/roblox/news/why-roblox-bears-were-right-before-a-51-drop","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2682360029","pubTimestamp":1794302720,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"simplywall_highlight","name":"Simply Wall St."},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"BBailey PembertonNovember 10, 2026","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BK4085":"互动家庭娱乐","LU1988902786.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS GLOBAL ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","ESPO":"VanEck Video Gaming and eSports ETF","METV":"Roundhill Ball Metaverse ETF","LU1064131342.USD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc USD","RBLU":"2倍做多RBLX ETF-T-REX","BK4565":"NFT概念","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4598":"佩洛西持仓","HERO":"Global X Video Games & Esports ETF","RBLY":"Yieldmax RBLX Option Income Strategy ETF","RBLX":"Roblox Corporation","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BNGE":"First Trust S-Network Streaming and Gaming ETF","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","LU2543165471.USD":"E FUND (HK) GLOBAL QUALITY GROWTH \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2264538146.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc SGD","IE0001KFT4U8.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE GLOBAL GROWTH LEADERS \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4547":"WSB热门概念","NERD":"Roundhill Video Games ETF","LU0786609619.USD":"高盛全球千禧一代股票组合Acc","BK4588":"碎股","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B"},"translate_title":"为什么 Roblox 在下跌 51% 之前看跌是正确的","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"RBLY":0.6,"NERD":0.6,"ESPO":0.6,"BNGE":0.6,"RBLX":1.5,"RBLU":0.6,"METV":0.6,"HERO":0.6},"content_text":"If you had decided on 9 November 2025 to skip Roblox and wait for clearer evidence on user quality versus headline growth, the past year looked very different. Investors who held Roblox over the past year are down 51.0%, including dividends. With age checks, safety changes, lawsuits and shifting guidance now in the news, what single assumption about user growth and monetization would you want to recheck from what was already on record then? Roblox is not the only name tied to this theme. Zero in on 34 elite gold producer stocks and compare how each one is priced. AdvertisementWhat Expectations Were Embedded In Roblox At The Time? The shares cost US$107 at the start of the period, and the argument around Roblox hinged on what kind of platform it could become by 2028. The bullish story pointed to a Fair Value of US$144. This was a rough guide to what that scenario implied the stock might be worth if it played out, built on revenue growth assumptions of 33.5% and a future profit margin of 9.4%. The bearish camp worked off a Fair Value of US$88.4. This was again an implied destination, anchored to 27.3% revenue growth, a 9.4% margin and worries about tighter digital privacy rules raising costs and limiting targeted advertising. NYSE:RBLX 1-Year Stock Price Chart What The Results Changed In The Roblox Debate The most telling development was Roblox rolling out global age verification and tougher safety rules, then reporting weaker bookings guidance and securities lawsuits claiming growth and user quality had been overstated. That challenged the bullish view that heavier safety would barely dent user monetization. Revenue and net income both rose year on year, and net margin moved from -18.8% to -14.4%, so profitability claims stayed unproven. Overall, the evidence cut both ways. The transferable lesson is simple. When a platform leans on safety, age checks or privacy, treat any promise of smooth user and spending trends as a testable assumption. For the next stock, track daily active users, bookings per user and guidance revisions against those pledges. What Roblox's Current Price Already Assumes Roblox now trades at US$51.6. The bullish analyst Narrative on Simply Wall St views its Fair Value as sitting above that quote, built on the idea that today’s weaker monetization and heavy investment are not the end state for the platform. For that higher figure to be reached, a buyer would need confidence that current spending on safety, AI tools and new formats eventually supports stronger long term retention and monetization than the market expects. \"The main factor that would need to work as intended is that investments in safety changes, age verification, AI infrastructure and discovery algorithms eventually support healthier long term retention and monetization after the current drag on bookings.\" That disagreement has a full argument behind it. → Uncover the higher Fair Value this Narrative argues for Which Company Could Surprise You Next? Passing on this one could have spared you a loss. Where might you find the opposite surprise? Start looking for companies whose prices leave room for a better outcome than investors expect. These three trade below our estimated value.  Company 1 - 41% below our estimate - compounds apparel earnings power as a divested label frees cash for reinvestment. Company 2 - 40% below our estimate - rolls out cash recycling machines and branch-in-a-box systems that reshape branch operations. Company 3 - 35% below our estimate - rides hyperscale data center buildouts as infrastructure contracts expand backlog and support visibility.  Those are three of them. See the full list of 33 companies trading below our fair value estimates → This article is general in nature and was produced with the assistance of AI automation,\n        based on data and analysis from Simply Wall St. We provide commentary based on historical data\n        and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n        financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n        Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n        Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-2","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"isLaohu8Offline":false,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.53.0","shortVersion":"4.53.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2682360029","isCrawlerRequest":true}