TradingKey - Bitcoin Slumps Over 9% in a Month, Lagging Far Behind Gold; Why Is Cathie Wood Still Bullish on It Outperforming Gold?
On November 9, Bitcoin and gold experienced completely divergent price action. Bitcoin (BTC) continued to fall 1%, briefly breaking below the key support level of $75,000, while spot gold (XAUUSD) climbed over 1% to break above $4,100 per ounce, widening the gap between the two. Over the past month, BTC has dropped about 9%, while gold has remained essentially unchanged.
Bitcoin and Gold Price Changes (Past Month), Source: CoinMarketCap
Despite Bitcoin's price performance lagging far behind gold recently, ARK Invest founder Cathie Wood has remained vocally bullish on Bitcoin against the prevailing trend, firmly believing that its medium- to long-term performance will significantly outpace gold, and even reiterating her long-term forecast of $730,000 to $1.5 million by 2030. According to an ArkkDaily report on November 9, "Cathie Wood expects Bitcoin to continue to rise relative to gold, while gold prices will fall."
The core logic and asset allocation rationale behind Wood's extremely optimistic stance amid Bitcoin's sharp short-term plunge are primarily based on two dimensions. First, Wood has repeatedly emphasized that Bitcoin cannot simply be viewed as a commodity or safe-haven currency; it possesses the triple attributes of a technological network platform, a brand-new global monetary system, and the first completely decentralized asset class in human history. As this three-tiered ecosystem continues to evolve, its long-term upside potential is far beyond what traditional physical gold can match.
Second is its extremely low asset correlation. Data from ARK Invest shows that the historical correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and traditional assets (such as gold, equities, and bonds) is exceptionally low, averaging only around 0.1 over the long term. Wood believes that against a backdrop of macroeconomic uncertainty interwoven with potential inflation, Bitcoin, as modern digital gold, is outpacing traditional gold in its effectiveness as an asset allocation and diversification tool.
Despite Wood's ambitious macroeconomic vision, the crypto market's short-term liquidity and technicals are facing severe real-world challenges. Amid an uncertain policy path from the Federal Reserve and ahead of the release of U.S. CPI and PPI data, institutional capital has driven net outflows from spot ETFs for risk management purposes. In addition, concerns over the Clarity Act and tightened DeFi regulation after Democrats gained control of both houses of Congress have weighed on risk assets in the short term, and BTC could drop over 10% further, sliding toward around $67,000.
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