The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1532 ET - U.S. natural gas futures settle lower, giving back the previous day's weather-driven gains as a spell of cold weather is set to lift near-term heating demand. The EIA reported a 61 Bcf storage injection for last week, which was at the low end of market expectations although above the five-year average for the week. The inventory build increased the surplus over the five-year average to 75 Bcf from 54 Bcf the week before. Nymex natural gas falls 3.3% to $3.230/mmBtu, but is up 7.7% from a week ago. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1420 ET - Gold futures hold their ground in choppy trading as a below-estimate U.S. producer price reading and steadying oil prices ease inflation concerns that sank the metals the previous session. Silver falls to a new 52-week low. "Gold is trying to get back on its feet after getting shot up yesterday," Phil Flynn of the Price Futures Group says in a note. The market is reading the Middle East conflict through the price of oil, he says. "Higher crude means higher inflation, which means a tougher Fed, which hurts a metal that pays no interest." Front month gold settles up $1.30 in New York at $3,879.70 a troy ounce for a 4.5% weekly loss. Silver falls 1.9% to $49.031 a troy ounce, its lowest close in a year and down 5.4% on the week. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1318 ET - The number of rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. is unchanged this week at 463, or 46 more than a year ago, Baker Hughes reports. Natural gas-directed rigs fell by four to 127, up by two from a year before. Increased drilling thanks to high oil prices has helped lift U.S. oil production, which the EIA expects to average a record 13.9 million barrels a day this year. The agency sees that rising to 14.3 million b/d in 2027, contributing to crude inventory builds next year. Higher net imports and slightly lower refinery inputs are also seen helping a buildup in stocks in 2027, the EIA says in its latest Short Term Energy Outlook. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1237 ET - Last week's U.S. corn export sales of 113.4 million bushels (2.88 million metric tons) for 2026/27 was the largest for any week since January and the most on record for the comparable week, says Mike Castle of StoneX. An additional 23.4 million bushels of corn were sold for 2027/28 with Mexico "far and away" the main buyer for both years. "These are the kind of weeks corn bulls need to see help the weak 2026/27 cumulative sales pace play catch-up." Export sales are still lagging last year by 27.8%, Castle adds. Corn is up 1% on CBOT. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1156 ET - U.S. natural gas inventories rose by more than usual last week, while landing at the low end of market estimates. Gas in underground storage increased by 61 billion cubic feet to 3,862 Bcf in the week ended Nov. 6, the EIA reports. Stocks were 75 Bcf above the 2021-2025 average for the time of year, versus a 54 Bcf surplus the week before. Analysts in a WSJ survey had predicted a 67 Bcf injection, with estimates ranging from 55 Bcf to 82 Bcf. Nymex natural gas futures are off 3.8% at $3.214/mmBtu but still higher on the week. "After another small build expected next week, the colder shift in near-term forecasts will likely produce the season's first net withdrawal for the week ending Nov. 20," Andy Huenefeld of Pinebrook Energy Advisors says in a note. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1154 ET - Brazilian national supply company Conab holds its estimate for the 2026/27 soybean harvest at 181.6 million metric tons,with planting 66.8% complete as of the first week of November. Initial development has been generally positive, but conditions have varied across regions, the state company says. "Irregular rainfall, combined with high temperatures and the effects of the El Niño phenomenon at the start of this cycle, calls for a cautious outlook regarding productive potential." Conab sees corn production from its three harvests reaching 148 million tons, also unchanged from October, with higher planted area compared with last year partially offset by lower yields. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1059 ET - Gold futures are little changed after briefly recovering to the $4,000 level earlier in the session. "Gold is navigating competing pressures from geopolitical uncertainty, inflation expectations, and elevated borrowing costs," Naeem Aslam of Zaye Capital Markets says in a note. Uncertainty around the Middle East situation after President Trump said the U.S. doesn't need a deal with Iran could strengthen demand for safe-haven assets, although the impact on gold depends on how energy markets, bond yields, and the U.S. dollar respond, he says. "For gold investors, the distinction between geopolitical risk and monetary policy consequences remains critical, particularly when higher inflation threatens to keep real interest rates elevated." Gold for December delivery is off 0.1% in New York at $3,883.40 a troy ounce. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1007 ET - Private exporters reported sales of 303,300 metric tons of corn to Mexico--272,820 tons for the 2026/27 marketing year and 30,480 tons for 2027/28, the USDA says. Soybean sales for 2026/27 include 134,000 tons to China, 120,000 tons to Vietnam and 100,000 tons to unknown destinations. CBOT futures are picking up from yesterday's weakness, with corn up 1.1%, soybeans climbing 1.2% and wheat rising 1.5%. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0949 ET - Crude futures are higher for a third session, but on track for weekly losses as increasing supply offsets emerging concerns about the lack of progress toward a Middle East conflict settlement. In its monthly report, the IEA said it expects global supply to return to a surplus in 4Q. The Paris-based agency estimates that supply will be down by 4.8 million barrels a day in all of 2026, and recover by 6.6 million b/d a day in 2027. Demand is seen falling by 2.7 million b/d this year, and picking up by 2 million b/d next, the IEA said. WTI is up 0.8% at $89.41 a barrel and Brent is up 1.2% at $96.94 a barrel. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0944 ET - U.S. natural gas futures pull back from this week's advance on signs of the first significant cold weather of the season. "Weather outlooks were a giant force in the rally yesterday pushing back up to the edge of the strong resistance around $3.37, but fundamentals are in command this morning pulling us back down into the fair value band between $3.20 and $3.30," Gary Cunningham of Tradition Energy says in a note. "Heating demand should remain strong into next week giving support to the December contract." Nymex natural gas is off 3.2% at $3.232/mmBtu. Inventory data due at 10:30 a.m. ET are expected to show an above-average 67 Bcf storage injection for last week, according to a WSJ survey of analysts. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0916 ET - Futures markets price in a Fed hike in December, with some bets on a jumbo increase of half a percentage point. A hawkish Fed bodes well for the dollar, as "persistently-wide rate differentials look likely to keep the dollar supported until the end of the year," Corpay's Karl Schamotta says in a note, adding that "further gains could be hard-won." He sees the currency as overbought against the euro, pound, yen and Canadian dollar and "vulnerable to an eventual reset in expectations." The WSJ Dollar Index rises slightly. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
0855 ET - The dollar weakens slightly against a basket of currencies as the U.S. October Producer Price Index comes in lower than expected. PPI was 0.3%, versus WSJ consensus of 0.4% and lower than September's 1.4%. The reading eases inflation fears that have boosted expectations of fast interest rate increases by the Fed and, consequently, lifted the dollar to recent highs. The DXY dollar index falls to 103.14 from 103.19 before the inflation data. The dollar is stable against the euro and the yen.
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