I haven't posted in the community for a long time. In the second quarter, Hong Kong stocks and A shares were in good condition. The domestic market was generally warming up. Many people were caught off guard by the sudden rise in the market in the first two weeks. Some of them already had all in's earnings. Recently, I found that all my friends around me are asking me what to buy when I enter the stock market in the second half of the year. I believe some people in the community will have doubts, so I found time to open this post to talk about how I chose stocks in Hong Kong and A-share markets.
I still use the bottom-up method in selecting stocks. The company itself will always be the first and the industry is also very important. As for the macro-economic environment, I will definitely look at it, but it will not be used as the main factor in the allocation of positions.
Here, I will extend the "macro" perspective, and I will not talk about the latter part. If you are not interested, you can jump over this part directly.
Since I graduated from half an economics major, I often do some research habitually, but I believe no one can accurately predict the specific interest rate, exchange rate, etc. in advance. As an ordinary person, I usually judge macro changes from four angles.
(1) Development of Frontier Technology
Technology itself is an important influencing factor of all-factor production. Whether it is the industrial revolution or the information superhighway in the 1990s, it has greatly affected the production mode of the whole community and the global supply chain. The new energy vehicles, 5G communications, industrial Internet and other very new industries we see today are all applications derived from the original technology, thus bringing new economic growth. Therefore, the new technology actually corresponds to new industries and new spaces. As we often say, intelligent driving, L3 technology corresponds to a market space of about 100 billion yuan. In the era of Industry 4.0, we can really see that technology will continuously bring new growth points. This is a good side.
Of course, history tells us that technology is a double-edged sword, and we should also avoid the "creative destruction" brought by technology. Just like in the era of mobile Internet, scanning code payment inadvertently killed the begging industry and the development of APP killed the traditional newspaper industry. The new technology is a dimension reduction blow to the old industry, and we need to remain vigilant.
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