@Hasnoy：Breaking News: The Bitcoin Bottom Is In! Admittedly, this is a clickbait title ... However, let me explain .. In previous cycles between halvings, the duration between the cycle high and cycle low was 13 months as you can see on the chart, with a price drop of >80% in that period. November '22 marks the 13th month since this cycle's ATH, so if history is respected, chances are that this month will mark the low for this cycle. Is the bottom in now? Today is only the 10th, so the month is another 20 days ... • How low can we go? I personally think that we could find support around 13800, which is the previous cycle's highest monthly close. So 13800 is the bottom? Not necessarily, we could spike lower than that, as 13800 would only be a 79% decline in price, so not the >80% drop we saw in previous cycles (cycle high to cycle low). So we could drop below that level, but my expectations are that we'll close the month above it. • Straight up after that? As you can see in previous cycles, there is a consolidation period before prices start to hike again, chances are high that we'll see that same thing happening again. Keeping in mind the current economic situation and geopolitical environment, going sideways for a while would make a lot of sense. • So, no new ATH in 2022? Most likely not, and it's even doubtful that we'll see a new ATH in 2023. In previous cycles, we never made a new ATH before the halving, so it's very likely we'll have to wait till 2024 (or later) to see price break the 69K all-time high. © Is this a good time to buy? Fundamentally nothing changed for Bitcoin, adoption, hash rate, and approval keep growing and the fact that almost 70% of BTC has not moved in the last 12 months shows that trust in Bitcoin has not faded, on the contrary. So, while nothing I say should be considered financial advice, my personal stance is that if you want to invest in BTC and keep it for the long term, it's probably a good time to buy now. Price could go lower as we speak, but chances that you'll be at a loss a couple of years from now are slim IMHO. ? Questions for you: • is the bottom in this month, or are we going to see a further decline? • how low do you think we're going? • did you own BTC at the ATH and did you sell or HODL? • when do you think we'll see a new ATH? • how high will we go? Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
Comments