$Microsoft(MSFT)$
Microsoft is scheduled to report earnings on 25-Jul-2023. The last time Microsoft reported earnings on 25-Apr-202, the stock decreased by 7.2%.
As you can see from the table below, MSFT shares have moved higher in the immediate aftermath of earnings 6 out of 12 previous reports. Based on the previous 12 earnings releases, MSFT is more likely to trade higher 1 day after earnings for an average gain of 0.6%. The absolute average return in the one week before earnings was ±3.1%. With an absolute average return of ±3.9% on earnings day.
How Non-Directional Option Strategies Have Performed Around Earnings:
MSFT last reported earnings on Apr 25, 2023 AMC.The options prices predicted a±4.2%post earnings move, compared to a+7.2%actual move.The options market overestimated MSFT stocks earnings move62%of the time in the last 13 quarters.The predicted move after earnings announcement was±4.7%on average vs an average of the actual earnings moves of3.7%(in absolute terms).
Strategy | Average Return | Win Rate |
Long Straddle | 4% | 50% |
Long Strangle | 6% | 42% |
Credit Iron Butterfly | -11% | 33% |
Credit Iron Condor | -11% | 42% |
Trade Ideas:
Short 25-Delta Put(Win rate100%)
Credit Put Spread(Win rate92%)
Key trades from tigerPC:
$Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$
Alphabet is scheduled to report earnings on 25-Jul-2023. The last time Alphabet reported earnings on 25-Jul-2023, the stock decreased by 0.1%.
As you can see from the table below, GOOG historically moved higher heading into earnings more often than not. On average, the stock gained 2.0% for the 2 week period before earnings. GOOG shares have moved higher in the immediate aftermath of earnings 7 out of 12 previous reports. The absolute average return in the one week before earnings was ±4.4%. With an absolute average return of ±4.7% on earnings day.
How Non-Directional Option Strategies Have Performed Around Earnings:
The options prices predicted a ±5.3% post earnings move, compared to a -0.1% actual move. The options market overestimated GOOGL stocks earnings move 54% of the time in the last 13 quarters. The predicted move after earnings announcement was ±5.4% on average vs an average of the actual earnings moves of 5.0% (in absolute terms).
Strategy | Average Return | Win Rate |
Long Straddle | -5% | 42% |
Long Strangle | -27% | 33% |
Credit Iron Butterfly | -17% | 27% |
Credit Iron Condor | 6% | 55% |
Trade Ideas:
Short 25-Delta Put(Win rate 92%)
Short ATM Put(Win rate 83%)
Key trades from tigerPC:
$Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$
Meta is scheduled to report earnings on 26-Jul-2023. The last time Alphabet reported earnings on 26-Apr-2023, the stock increased by 13.9% .
As you can see from the table below, META shares have moved lower in the immediate aftermath of earnings 7 out of 12 previous reports. Based on the previous 12 earnings releases, META is more likely to trade lower 1 day after earnings for an average loss of -1.0%. The absolute average return in the one week before earnings was ±4.9%. With an absolute average return of ±11.9% on earnings day.
How Non-Directional Option Strategies Have Performed Around Earnings:
The options prices predicted a±9.0%post earnings move, compared to a+13.9%actual move.The options market overestimated META stocks earnings move38%of the time in the last 13 quarters.The predicted move after earnings announcement was±7.8%on average vs an average of the actual earnings moves of11.4%(in absolute terms).This shows you that META tended to be more volatile than the options market predicted for the earnings stock price reaction.
Strategy | Average Return | Win Rate |
Long Straddle | 45% | 58% |
Long Strangle | 94% | 50% |
Credit Iron Butterfly | -54% | 25% |
Credit Iron Condor | -37% | 36% |
Trade Ideas:
Long Straddle(Win rate 67%)
Key trades from tigerPC:
$Amazon.com(AMZN)$
Amazon is scheduled to report earnings on 27-Jul-2023. The last time Amazon reported earnings on 27-Apr-2023, the stock decreased by 4.0%.
As you can see from the table below, AMZN shares have moved lower in the immediate aftermath of earnings 9 out of 12 previous reports. Based on the previous 12 earnings releases, AMZN is more likely to trade lower 1 day after earnings for an average loss of -0.5%. The absolute average return in the one week before earnings was ±3.3%. With an absolute average return of ±6.5% on earnings day.
How Non-Directional Option Strategies Have Performed Around Earnings:
The options prices predicted a ±7.4% post earnings move, compared to a -4.0% actual move. The options market overestimated AMZN stocks earnings move 54% of the time in the last 13 quarters. The predicted move after earnings announcement was ±6.0% on average vs an average of the actual earnings moves of 6.6% (in absolute terms). This shows you that AMZN tended to be more volatile than the options market predicted for the earnings stock price reaction.
Strategy | Average Return | Win Rate |
Long Straddle | 13% | 42% |
Long Strangle | 25% | 42% |
Credit Iron Butterfly | -6% | 33% |
Credit Iron Condor | -11% | 58% |
Trade Ideas:
Short 25-Delta Put(Win rate 83%)
Key trades from tigerPC:
Comments