The Alibaba $Alibaba(BABA)$ stock price fell by -0.206% on Thursday, 20th Jul 2023 from $92.09 to $91.90. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 1.94% from a day low at $91.35 to a day high of $93.12. The price has risen in 6 of the last 10 days and is up by 9.61% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day along with the stock, which is actually a good sign as volume should follow the stock. On the last day, the trading volume fell by -4 million shares and in total, 13 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $1.17 billion.
The stock lies in the middle of a wide and weak rising trend in the short term and a further rise within the trend is signaled. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to rise 8.31% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $89.85 and $105.30 at the end of this 3-month period.
BABA Signals & Forecast
The Alibaba stock holds a sell signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, there is a buy signal from the long-term average. Since the short-term average is above the long-term average there is a general buy signal in the stock giving a positive forecast for the stock. On further gains, the stock will meet resistance from the short-term Moving Average at approximately $93.40. On a fall, the stock will find some support from the long-term average at approximately $87.70. A break-up through the short-term average will send a buy signal, whereas a breakdown through the long-term average will send a sell signal. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Thursday, July 13, 2023, and so far it has fallen -4.88%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Volume fell together with the price during the last trading day and this reduces the overall risk as volume should follow the price movements.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Alibaba stock
Alibaba finds support from accumulated volume at $90.55 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
This stock has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the stock moved $1.77 between high and low, or 1.94%. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 2.36%.
Our recommended stop-loss: $87.25 (-5.06%) (This stock has medium daily movements and this gives medium risk. There is a sell signal from a pivot top found 5 days ago.)
Trading Expectations (BABA) For The Trading Day Of Friday 21st
For the trading day on Friday, 21st we expect Alibaba Group Holding Limited to open at $92.12, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $89.07 and $94.73, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$2.83 (+/-3.08%) up or down from last closing price. If Alibaba Group Holding Limited takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 6.16% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $92.10 (0.22%) than the support at $90.55 (1.47%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.
Is Alibaba Group Holding Limited stock A Buy?
Alibaba holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy candidate. At the current level, it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development.
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