The Carvana $Carvana Co.(CVNA)$ stock price fell by -4.61% on Tuesday, 25th Jul 2023 from $46.24 to $44.11. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 10.23% from a day low at $43.91 to a day high of $48.40. The price has been going up and down for this period, and there has been a 24.01% gain for the last 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day along with the stock, which is actually a good sign as volume should follow the stock. On the last day, the trading volume fell by -1 million shares and in total, 21 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $909.41 million.
The stock lies in the middle of a very wide and strong rising trend in the short term and a further rise within the trend is signaled. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to rise 191.31% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $94.62 and $169.87 at the end of this 3-month period.
CVNA Signals & Forecast
The Carvana stock holds a sell signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, there is a buy signal from the long-term average. Since the short-term average is above the long-term average there is a general buy signal in the stock giving a positive forecast for the stock. On further gains, the stock will meet resistance from the short-term Moving Average at approximately $44.98. On a fall, the stock will find some support from the long-term average at approximately $29.50. A break-up through the short-term average will send a buy signal, whereas a breakdown through the long-term average will send a sell signal. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Wednesday, July 19, 2023, and so far it has fallen -20.95%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Volume fell together with the price during the last trading day and this reduces the overall risk as volume should follow the price movements.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Carvana stock
On the downside, the stock finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at $38.89 and $37.68. There is a natural risk involved when a stock is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the stock then may fall to the next support level. In this case, Carvana finds support just below today's level at $38.89. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at $37.68 and $34.27.
This stock may move very much during the day (volatility) and with a very large prediction interval from the Bollinger Band this stock is considered to be "very high risk". During the last day, the stock moved $4.49 between high and low, or 10.23%. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 16.34%.
Our recommended stop-loss: $41.62 (-5.64%) (This stock has very high daily movements and this gives very high risk. There is a sell signal from a pivot top found 4 days ago.)
Trading Expectations (CVNA) For The Trading Day Of Wednesday 26th
For the trading day on Wednesday, 26th we expect Carvana Company to open at $45.47, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $38.64 and $49.58, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$5.47 (+/-12.40%) up or down from last closing price. If Carvana Company takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 24.81% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $45.62 (3.42%) than the support at $38.89 (11.83%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.
Insiders are very positive buying more shares than they are selling in Carvana
In the last 100 trades there were 4.41 million shares bought and 173.35 thousand shares sold. The last trade was made 7 days ago by Breaux Paul W. who bough 33.39 thousand shares. The large amount of stocks bought compared to stocks sold indicate that the insiders believe there is a potential good upside. In some cases larger purchases can be explained by due date for stock options.
Is Carvana Company stock A Buy?
Several short-term signals, along with a general good trend, are positive and we conclude that the current level may hold a buying opportunity as there is a fair chance for Carvana stock to perform well in the short-term.
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