When will TSLA reach $300 and $400?

$TSLA Tesla's stock price did not surpass $300 as written in my post a week earlier. The previous post was written before the release of Tesla's Q2 earnings. I wrote that the stock would have a high probability of hitting $300, but fell to a low of $254 on Monday, before rising sharply to hit a high of $269. The prior low was $240, set 3 weeks ago on Jun 26 after the strong march from $158 from May 1 to $276. Did you catch that 74% rising wave? The drop from $276 to $240 was about 8.7%. The drop from $299 to $254 was 15%.

Today, I am writing this follow up post prior to the release of the FED meeting. As widely anticipated, the FED is likely to increase interest rates by another 25bp. The surprise would be a 50bp. A 25bp increase would likely indicate another 25bp towards year's end. A 50bp increase would signal the end of the interest rates hikes. Between the two, my view is that a 50bp is a better indicator for tech stocks for the medium term, as the runway is now clear for taking off. However, in the short term, no one can predict how the market will react to an unexpected 50bp hike. There will be high volatility.

If the FED goes ahead with the expected 25bp increase, the market might be less certain when the interest rates hikes will end. While there may be less volatility today, it might signal more volatility at the next rate hike. No one can forecast with certainty.

On a broader medium term picture, I believe Tesla stock price is reminiscent of its run in 2021 when it rose from $180 (then $540) in May 2021 to $414 (then $1243) in Nov 2021. I believe that Tesla is in a similar medium term bull run, with investors more enthusiastic about Tesla's product lineup and manufacturing footprints than the reduction of margins from product price cuts. Therefore, reaching $300 and past the resistance of $314 has a high probability in the next few months.

The big question is: Would Tesla run up to $400 in the next few months? I do not think so, but the Jan 2024 delivery and earnings call might just tip it over $400, before receding. No one can have the pulse of millions of investors. Only the price reflects the real sentiments of investors.