Why I am bearish to $TSM in the long run

LukeTan
2023-07-27

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) is the world's largest contract chipmaker. The company provides manufacturing services to a wide range of customers, including Apple, Qualcomm, and Nvidia.


TSM has been a solid performer over the long term. The company's stock price has increased by more than 500% in the past five years.


However, I am inclined to have a negative view on TSM stock in the long run. Here are some of the reasons why:


* **The global semiconductor market is facing increasing competition.** TSM is not the only company that manufactures semiconductors. There are a number of other companies, such as Samsung and Intel, that are also competing for market share.

* **The cost of manufacturing semiconductors is rising.** The cost of raw materials, such as silicon, is rising. This is putting pressure on TSM's profit margins.

* **The demand for semiconductors is cyclical.** The demand for semiconductors tends to fluctuate with the global economy. If the global economy slows down, the demand for semiconductors could decline.


**Overall, I believe that TSM stock is a risky investment in the long run.** The company is facing increasing competition, the cost of manufacturing semiconductors is rising, and the demand for semiconductors is cyclical.


**Here are some of the factors that could affect TSM's stock price in the long term:**


* The growth of the global semiconductor market

* The increasing competition in the semiconductor industry

* The rising cost of manufacturing semiconductors

* The cyclical demand for semiconductors


**Investors who are considering buying TSM stock should carefully consider these risks before making a decision.**


In addition to the above, here are some other factors that could affect TSM's stock price in the long run:


* **The development of new semiconductor technologies.** If new semiconductor technologies are developed, TSM could lose market share to companies that are able to manufacture these new chips.

* **The political situation in Taiwan.** TSM is a Taiwanese company, and there is some risk of political instability in Taiwan. This could disrupt TSM's operations and hurt its stock price.


Overall, I believe that TSM stock is a risky investment in the long run. The company is facing a number of challenges, and there are a number of factors that could hurt its stock price. Investors who are considering buying TSM stock should carefully consider these risks before making a decision.

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Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

  • 七钱三分
    2023-07-28
    七钱三分
    你讲的因素都没有错误。但有两点需要补充的,其一高阶制程的护城河3-5年内还没有竞争对手。其二股票的涨跌并非那么理智的。
  • XantheJuliana
    2023-07-29
    XantheJuliana

    I’m reading that TSM will have its first decline in annual sales since 2019. I’m also reading that there is a severe shortage of AI chips from NVIDIA, which are being fabbed by TSM.

    • LukeTan
      Very strong competition. :)
  • YaleBrewster
    2023-07-29
    YaleBrewster

    The delayed opening of the Arizona fab is bad news for TSMC. The lack of skilled workers was cited as the reasons for the delay. No wonder Intel is falling further behind TSMC.

    • LukeTan
      Yes indeed this is a bad news to tsm. However, this should not affect much to the earning.
  • YvetteGunther
    2023-07-29
    YvetteGunther

    Buy buy buy this! It will be up around $145 by End of Aug. Big IB starts shopping this.

  • shining87
    2023-07-29
    shining87

    Buy buy buy! It’s more than 75% discounted price. Buy and hold long till year 2024. You will get 95% profits on your acct.

  • jeffry09
    2023-07-29
    jeffry09

    TSM makes most of the world chips and most of the AI chips. How is this company not seeing massive profits?

    • LukeTan
      Not to forget the competition for medium end chip where the demand is higher. :)
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