Nvidia Q2 Forecast: Does it determine US bear or bull market?

Nvidia $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ , king of AI, will release the second quarter of the fiscal year 2024 (May 1, 2023 - July 31 2023) after the closing bell on August 23. The financial report of the world attention, it may have a significant impact on the trend of the US stock market!

In the last quarterly earnings report, Nvidia stunned the world. Management expected FY24Q2 revenue to be around $11 billion, a year-on-year increase of 64%, far exceeding analysts' consensus expectations of $7.15 billion!

Boosted by this, Nvidia soared 24% the day after the results were announced, or 1.6 Intel$Intel(INTC)$ a day!

Since then, Nvidia's share price has risen continuously, with a market capitalization of more than $1 trillion, ranking fifth in U. S. stocks, after only to $Apple(AAPL)$ $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$ .

The huge increase has pushed Nvidia's valuation to an all-time high, so the world has compared Nvidia with Cisco$Cisco(CSCO)$ during the dotcom bubble in an attempt to demonstrate that the AI bubble is huge!

Today, the AI carnival brought about by ChatGPT is calming down. On the one hand, the shortage of GPU hinders OpenAI's ability to upgrade and train new models; On the other hand, governments have stepped up regulation of AI. Most importantly, users seem to be less enthusiastic about ChatGPT after the freshness.

According to data compiled by AceCamp, the consulting service, the growth in the number of users of almost all AI chat robots has stagnated or even begun to decline:

From the financial results disclosed by Microsoft and Google, the pulling effect of AI on the business is not obvious.

Under a series of bearish conditions, the AI concept has been turned off, and the semiconductor industry chain has also undergone a significant correction.

Therefore, the market is very much looking forward to Nvidia's exciting news in this financial report, confirming that the market demand for GPU remains strong, rather than a temporary outbreak, which is very important to Nvidia, and it will also affect the trend of the semiconductor industry, which will have an impact on US stocks as a whole.

So far, analysts have forecast revenue of $11.045 billion for the second quarter of Nvidia's FY24, with data center revenue of $7.86 billion, up 106.6% year-on-year; Game revenue of $2.38 billion, up 16% year-on-year; Professional Visualization revenue of $320 million, down 36%; and Autopilot revenue of $310 million, up 41% year-over-year:

In terms of price-to-sales ratio valuation, Nvidia is currently 42 times, an all-time high, but there is still a gap compared with Cisco during the dotcom bubble:

Under the high valuation, the market has extremely high requirements for financial reports, and if it is slightly less than expected, it will cause a huge shock in the stock price, and wait for the answer to the mystery on August 23.