In summary, the upcoming week encapsulates critical junctures such as major retail reports, Federal Reserve minutes, housing market indicators, and global economic data releases.//@TigerClub:
Hi Tigers, welcome to ”What the Tigers Say” [Cool]
This is a weekly column planned to share the great opinion from Tigers on ‘Will the Broader Market Dip After July CPI?’
The consumer price index rose 3.2% from a year ago in July, slightly below expectations of 3.3%.
Market participants speculate the major indices may dip after the release of CPI; some, however, expect the market will go higher this week.
How will the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ move?
Will the pullback continue?
Below are some insights from Tiger @TigerOptions, @ZEROHERO and @JC888. Which opinions do you agree with？
🎁Special Notes: Whoever showed up on the” What the Tigers Say” column will receive 100 Tiger Coins and an exclusive interview invitation to honor your contribution.
Click titles to read the full analysis:
1. @TigerOptions: Nasdaq Plummets as Crucial Support Levels Teeter on the Edge
Key Points:
The Federal Reserve's future interest-rate moves are likely to be guided by the forthcoming consumer-price index data, leaving investors in a state of apprehension. If the CPI data reflects a surge in inflation, the market could be in for a rough ride, and the Nasdaq's precarious position might just be the catalyst for a larger market correction.
It's crucial to note that the Nasdaq's fate is inherently tied to the health of the broader economy. With China's economy teetering on the brink of deflation and concerns growing about a global economic slowdown, the Nasdaq's retesting of a crucial support level might just be the first domino to fall in a chain reaction of financial turmoil.
Investors are urged to brace for impact as the market grapples with uncertainty. The once-unstoppable Nasdaq is facing a watershed moment, and the outcome remains uncertain. As the index retests its critical support levels, the fate of the tech sector hangs in the balance, and investors are left wondering if this is the beginning of a larger market correction or a mere blip on the radar.
2. @ZEROHERO: All Eyes On Producer Price Index Data Next 🤔
Key Points:
Demmert added that there are indications the market may be due for more of a pullback from current levels, noting the market’s retreat from its “big open.” “That’s kind of what corrections look like as you roll through. And I think we’re just a third through this one, so far,” he said.
It'll be important to analyze the breakdown of individual components of the CPI. Oil and gas prices have soared this summer - which will impact energy - while food, rent and shelter costs, and healthcare, are also on watch.
...
3. @JC888: If CPI Continues To Rise, Will Fed Raise Interest Again?
Key Points:
This is how I see it:
The Fed is “locked” in a “damned if you do and damned if you don't" position.
If it ignores the acute SPR shortage, the repercussions might be even harder to contain when the time comes. [case 01]
Conversely, If the Fed proceeds to raise another 0.25% at the next FOMC meeting, would this cause US to slip into recession? [case 02]
Given the above “two-evils”, embarking on case 02 is a more prudent approach; given that current state of the US economy is on the mend; albeit a slower pace.
If CPI were to inch up from Aug onwards, the Fed might be left with “no choice” but to (i) continue to raise interest rate and (ii) it might be more than once.
Questions for you:
How will the broader market move?
Will the pullback continue?
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⏰Duration
23 Aug (24pm EDT)
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