Omega88
2023-08-22

All eyes on Nvidia!!

Since the release of ChatGPT in Nov 2022, the semiconductor sector has been on a huge rally. Is it a good time to take profit?

Using $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ as an example, the revenue for Q1 2024 was 7.2 billion (which is down 13% from Q1 2023 revenue of 8.3 billion) and the diluted non-GAAP EPS was down 20% yoy from 1.36 to 1.09. On the other hand, the revenue outlook for Q2 2024 is 11 billion (which is an increase of 53% qoq), which might explain the huge gain after-market as the market is forward-looking. The revenue for data centre remains robust up 14% yoy and up 18% qoq, gaming segment saw a decrease of 38% yoy and 22% qoq, metaverse segment saw a decrease of 53% yoy but up 31% qoq, automotive segment was up 114% yoy and 1% qoq.

The escalating tensions between US and China is likely to affect the semiconductor industries and export bans may lead to further downside for most semiconductor companies. No doubt the AI spending will increase over time, but we are not observing a significant increase in the revenue yet. Not even for Nvidia!! Although its latest Q1 2024 report shows significant qoq, it's still way off its peak in Q1 2023. When everyone seem to be in a strong buying mood! Remember to be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful!! The AI bubble is slowly forming and I believe the stock is way overvalued.

Similarly, a lot of AI-related stocks are on a huge rally, but can they deliver the results?? $Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares(SOXL)$ $C3.ai, Inc.(AI)$ $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ 

Everyone seem to be in a strong buying mood! Remember to be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful!! Enjoy the rally while it lasts!

No doubt the stock will continue to break new high in the future but I wont be buying at this price range. I'll probably wait for the next pull-back before entering again. What about you?? let me know your thoughts!!

@Daily_Discussion  @TigerStars  @MillionaireTiger  @TigerEvents  

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

  • BillyWilliams
    2023-08-22
    BillyWilliams

    The bull case for nvda: you buy 100 shares close to the all time high for $48,000 and if it goes up to $500, you make a $2000 while risking $48,000 going down to $41,000, the price where it was 2 trading days ago. Or down over 50%, the price it was in march of this year.

  • ChrisColeman
    2023-08-22
    ChrisColeman

    It is possible this takes a breather today. Strong move yesterday and bond yields. If so will resume up trend tomorrow into after hour earnings.

  • WernerBilly
    2023-08-22
    WernerBilly

    You might be right but the problem is that you need to think about the technically part of the stock

  • ChrisColeman
    2023-08-22
    ChrisColeman

    Massive volume. all selling. geez longs, what happened??!!

  • Ms Mac
    2023-08-22
    Ms Mac
    Looking at the market, yes, you could be right!
  • BruceBryant
    2023-08-22
    BruceBryant

    YES, after market, right??

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