deqingjames
2023-08-29

Amidst the oscillations within the Nasdaq Composite COMP +0.84% and Apple's AAPL +0.88% stock trailing, a ray of hope emerges as the eagerly awaited iPhone 15 launch draws near. The month of August hasn't been lenient on the stock market, with the Nasdaq Composite experiencing a 5.3% decline, marking its most challenging monthly performance this year, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Apple (ticker: AAPL) also witnessed a 9.1% dip in its value, signifying its first monthly setback in 2023.

As Friday concluded, Apple's performance found itself lagging behind the Nasdaq Composite by a substantial 3.8 percentage points. If this trend persists, it could lead to the most significant monthly underperformance since November 2022.

Early August delivered news of a 1% year-over-year decline in sales for the quarter ending on July 1, influencing the stock's downward trajectory. Notably, Apple recorded a reduction in year-over-year iPhone sales, a crucial revenue source for the company. In discussions with analysts and investors regarding the results, Apple's management underscored a decrease in the U.S. smartphone market over the previous two quarters.

Chief Financial Officer Luca Maestri elaborated, "Products revenue was $60.6 billion, down 4% from last year, as we encountered FX [foreign exchange] headwinds and an uneven macroeconomic environment."

In a report on August 11, market research firm International Data Corporation divulged a 6.8% decrease in global smartphone shipments compared to the previous year in the second quarter. This marked the eighth consecutive quarter of contraction, attributed to subdued demand, inflation, macroeconomic uncertainties, and an oversupply of inventory in the market.

However, a sense of optimism prevails as Apple readies itself for the introduction of its latest offering, the iPhone 15, scheduled for a September debut. Barron's has previously highlighted Apple's historical stock surge in the months following a new phone launch. This pattern may recur following the iPhone 15's unveiling.

Amit Daryanani, an analyst at Evercore ISI, expressed confidence, remarking, "The iPhone 15 is poised to bring about design and feature enhancements, and we believe that the alterations in design... will not only prompt device upgrades but will also encourage a higher ASP [average selling price] blend through both elevated pricing and progressively convincing consumers to invest more by opting for the Pro models over the base models." Daryanani's insights were conveyed in an August 18 research note, where he maintained an Outperform rating on the stock and set a $210 price target.

Dan Ives, an analyst at Wedbush, shares a similarly optimistic perspective.

"[We] anticipate a $100-$150 price increase for the iPhone 15 Pro/Pro Max version, which, following substantial carrier promotions, should be palatable for numerous upgrading customers; we estimate this accounts for around 240 million iPhones worldwide that have not undergone upgrades for more than four years," Ives conveyed on August 15. He upholds an Outperform rating on the stock and has a price target of $230.

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