$Apple(AAPL)$ Apple is having a rough week ahead of the expected launch of the iPhone 15. Shares were falling Thursday, adding to the previous day’s losses.

Investors are weighing up a potential hit to Apple AAPL +1.28% (ticker: AAPL) sales in China from a ban on government officials using iPhones at work. That is in the balance against a potential boost to the stock from the launch of the iPhone 15, expected on Tuesday. 

Since Tuesday, Apple’s stock slide has shaved $189.8 billion from its market value, to around $2.8 trillion.

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For those investors who prefer to rely on the fundamentals, the math around the threat to Apple in China is worth a look. 

A ban on iPhones limited to employees of Chinese government agencies, which The Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday, would equate to a hit of less than 500,000 units, according to Wedbush’s Daniel Ives. He said around 45 million iPhones are likely to be sold in China over the next 12 months as Apple makes “massive share gains” in the country, partly because of the iPhone 15. 

The arithmetic could change if a report from Bloomberg that China could broaden the ban from central government officials to workers at state companies proves to be correct. That would potentially expand the restrictions to millions more people, although it isn’t clear how aggressively Chinese authorities would impose the ban, or over what period