JJ Go
2023-09-27

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ I think Tesla will head to higher price. Tesla has improved traditional car manufacturing processes and achieved cost reduction and efficiency through "integrated die casting" and "parallel paint and assembly," disrupting the four major processes of traditional "stamp-weld-paint-assembly."

Tesla has revolutionized the four major processes of traditional car manufacturing, aiming to simplify complex procedures and reduce costs. They have optimized stamping and welding through integrated die casting and promoted "unboxed process" for parallel paint and assembly, enhancing the painting and assembly stages to lower costs and improve efficiency. According to Toyota's automotive manufacturing value model, Tesla's process reforms have significantly increased the proportion of value creation time in various stages, such as casting, queueing, and assembly.

As pioneers and leaders in integrated die casting, Tesla started implementing this approach in 2015, initially focusing on the rear underbody and expanding it to the entire vehicle chassis. By 2021, Tesla was using a 6000-ton die-casting machine to produce the Model Y's rear underbody, reducing manufacturing time from 1-2 hours to 2-3 minutes. In 2023, a 9000-ton die-casting machine was employed for the Cybertruck's rear underbody. Tesla's in-house developed heat-resistant alloys eliminate the need for heat treatment, addressing material expansion and contraction issues. Integrated die casting has streamlined processes, improved production efficiency, and reduced manufacturing costs. Based on our simple calculation, for a vehicle with a BOM cost of 230,000 RMB, adopting integrated die casting for the front, middle, and rear underbodies can reduce costs by 7,630 RMB per vehicle with equivalent range.

Parallel paint and assembly represent a manufacturing revolution that aligns with Tesla's production model. During Tesla's 2023 Investor Day, the company introduced the "unboxed process," planning to modularize the painting and assembly stages, shifting from "serial" to "parallel" production. This marks the third significant change in production methods in the automotive manufacturing field after Henry Ford's assembly line in the 1910s and Toyota's lean production in the 1950s. According to the plan, the next-generation production lines will have a 44% higher operation density, a 30% increase in space/time efficiency, a 50% improvement in economic benefits, and a 40% reduction in factory space requirements. Although parallel paint and assembly are not unique to Tesla and have been adopted by aerospace companies and Bugatti Chiron, they have not been widely used in large-scale vehicle manufacturing due to their high demands on supply chains and production line management and limited product flexibility. Tesla has tackled the core challenges of this model through its "in-house production of key components + integrated die casting + popular vehicle models" strategy, enabling parallel paint and assembly to be viable for large-scale manufacturing. Additionally, Tesla introduced a paint-free ultra-hard steel alloy for the Cybertruck, further optimizing the painting stage.

Target price for Tesla after delivery data?
Tesla released the latest 3Q deliveries of 466,140; surpassing the estimates of 455K units. ------------------ How do you view Tesla's delivery data? What's your target price for Tesla? Are you bullish/bearish on Tesla stock price?
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