I wrote a week ago that the general momentum of $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ is bearish. I wrote that if the $212 support is broken, the probability to the downside is higher than the upside.
Over the past week, the buyers and sellers were undecided. The crash to $202 came back up to a higher of $222. And yesterday the break downwards of $212 was clear. Yet the premarket today is heading back up at $209. This is likely a slight market bounce over the disappointing result of Google and Facebook two daya ago to today’s cheering of Amazon and Intel. As I wrote last week, continue to watch the biggest stocks as the market now almost mirrors their movements.
TSLA cannot fight the macro environment. In fact, watch too the sales of the other OEMs. The industry is in a downward trend, not only ICE brands. If Elon is to be trusted, then his pessimistic views should be taken more seriously than his optimistic views.
@ZenInv：$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ I wrote a few months ago that Tesla's momentum remained strong since the beginning of the year. I made a thesis for Tesla reaching $300 by the end of the year. Some catalysts include the delivery of the Cybertruck expected at the end of Q3 then and the probable announcement of the low cost Model 2. This was shown by the market continued optimism for the above prior to the Q2 delivery and Q2 results. The market sentiment was undecided with bears winning some rounds and bulls winning a big round with Adam Jonas' price target update in September. However, market sentiments started to sour when some analysts and fund managers, including Gary Black, began to give warnings that Tesla might not reach the Street's concsensus number. The actual delivery number was a reminder that the market could have been too optimistic about Tesla's performance, perhaps overly discounting macroeconomic headwinds. The Q3 earnings call was a direct reminder by management that no company in the world can beat the Fed and overcome global economic-political concerns. As one article wrote today "Tesla: Is good good enough?", sums up the sentiments of some market participants well. In view of these events, I revise my forecast downwards towards a possible $180 support. Watch to see if the intermediate support of $212 is broken. If so, $180 is more likely than not. If $180 is broken, there is nothing to stop the stock heading to the $100 support at the start of the year. And this price action may play out over a couple of quarters. Until the interest rate starts to plateau next year, and global political-economic concerns subside, Tesla will see a slow climb up the wall of global worries and the weak economy. Watch also the performance of the mega caps like Apple and Nvidia to have a good gauge for the direction of Tesla's stock. Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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The next few days may see slight bounces. But unless there is major positive catalyst, the stock will slowly bleed. Investors need to manage bleeding stocks well. With constant minorv olatility, it is more difficult to gauge the probability and direction of the stock well. More frequent trading more result in more losses. Yet staying still is not idea either because the stock just keeps going downwards.
This has happened before even after Elon has sold off all his shares to purchase Twitter, yet the stock continued to slide because investors could not clearly see the road ahead. This happened even when the broader market is rallying. Yesterday was a perfect example of this phenomenon.
Investors be ultra mindful and brace for impact.