$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $S&P 500(.SPX)$
The Mkt might be tradable up to the 4,300 level, but I wouldn't set up camp just yet:
Middle East crisis appears contained
-- Remains to be seen. Highly dependent on the role the Saudis play. With all the military traffic hanging out by the Suez, I can't image that these are optimal conditions for energy transporters.
Room For Inflation To Surprise Lower (energy/shelter prices)
-- Inflation is either set to reaccelerate or stay at current elevated levels; housing starts are bouncing, Q3 GDP was hot (without the proportionate tax receipts), retail sales surging, Durable Goods Orders up, UAW strike about over, wages still growing, IP up.
Fed Is Likely Done With Rate Hikes
-- Maybe, probably should go one more. How are these restrictive levels if housing starts are moving up, retail sales are solidly outperforming expectations? And that's with net negative liquidity.
Downside To Bond Yields
-- Why? Looks to me like the yield curve is uninventing.
Economy Remains Resilient
-- True, with wage growth continuing to rise, I wouldn't expect inflation to significantly drop from here, or at least for the propensity of inflation's reacceleration to dissipate. Unemployment is still below 4, not too much room for it to lead the next economic expansion.
Companies Keep Beating Earnings
-- At some point, interest expense will reset. Paradoxically, companies are digging their own graves.
Attractive valuations
-- Mkt P/E still above 20. I'll wait.
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